Crowd calendars

[hull327]

I know there are crowd calendars that predict crowd levels for future dates but are there any that show previous weeks actual levels? Reason I ask is that we just went the week of December 8 and from my perspective it was very busy. However, from the time we booked in April 2014 until the day we left every crowd calendar showed it being a slow week. I'm just curious if it really was a slow week but my perception is just skewed of what "slow" is or if it just wound up being busier than predicted.

 

[Victor Kelly]

Disney is doing their best to never have a slow month, week, day or hour.

 

[Tom]

The best source: http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/historical-crowds

@lentesta

 

[BigRedDad]

I was there the Dec 14-21. The crowds were larger than what the calendars stated. It was reaching my upper limit of enjoyin myself. I knew the latter part of the week would be worse. We hit our stride at the MK. We rushed to 7DMT at the front of the herd. After wasting that time, I chose to stay in Fantasyland, Toon Town, and Tomorrowland. We did 7DMT, met Ariel, did the clam mobiles, Goofy's Barnstormer, Dumbo, Teacups, Motor Speedway, Buzz, Astro Orbiter, People Mover, met White Rabbit, met Merida, traded pins many times, and rode most rides 2x or more. We finished all this by 11AM.

The biggest waste of time would have been in line for 7DMT. The ride is not worth a 30 second wait, let alone an hour or more. While those fools fill the lines for 7DMT and Frozen M&G, everything else is a walk on.

 

[hull327]

The best source: http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/historical-crowds

@lentesta

Thanks but that requires a subscription.

 

[Clamman73]

I know there are crowd calendars that predict crowd levels for future dates but are there any that show previous weeks actual levels? Reason I ask is that we just went the week of December 8 and from my perspective it was very busy. However, from the time we booked in April 2014 until the day we left every crowd calendar showed it being a slow week. I'm just curious if it really was a slow week but my perception is just skewed of what "slow" is or if it just wound up being busier than predicted.

Did you see a lot of cheerleaders? You were there in the middle of Pop Warner and might have seen a bump in crowds from that...

 

[hull327]

There were some but it wasn't anywhere near an overwhelming amount. The park was just full, period.

 

[KeithVH]

I don't think any of the crowd estimators have really modified their algorithms to adapt to the current business models the company uses to influence attendance. I have no way of knowing but i would guess that some of the estimations are based on the way business was before 2010. Shoot, in the early 2000s, first week of December was a ghost town.

Nowadays it's pretty much "somewhat crowded" or "real crowded". The only slow time left (and this is probably relative) is beginning of September and back to school.

 

[Ranch Dressing]

There are no real accurate crowd calanders. People are just guessing now. If anyone is predicting anytime in December is slow that right there should tell you they have no clue.

 

[lentesta]

I know there are crowd calendars that predict crowd levels for future dates but are there any that show previous weeks actual levels? ....

Here's our crowd report for the week of Dec 7-13, 2014.

Same report for week of Dec 14-20, 2014.

If you want to see how actual waits compared to our predictions, on an attraction-by-attraction basis, we show those numbers on our crowd calendar every day for the previous day (top of the page, where it says "How we did yesterday").

I don't think any of the crowd estimators have really modified their algorithms to adapt to the current business models the company uses to influence attendance.

There's some truth to this, but it's limited to certain scenarios. Our models have shown some problems dealing with combinations of scenarios it hasn't seen before. One example was last November at the MK, where the combination of MVMCP, MVMCP, Evening EMH, and MVMCP on Thu, Fri, Sat, and Sun, was something we hadn't seen before. But after a couple of those, we updated the models and got better results.

Things like free dining and other sales tend to be easier to predict.

There are no real accurate crowd calanders. People are just guessing now.

I look at crowd calendar predictions and results every day. Neither we nor Josh at EasyWDW are guessing, by any reasonable definition of the word. Both have misses, sometimes large, but on a day to day basis they're far better than random guessing would get you.

The thing you want to look for in a calendar, is whether there's any objective, publicly verifiable definition of what the scale means. So let's say Moe's Tavern puts out a calendar that says the Magic Kingdom is going to be a 6 today and a 4 tomorrow. If Moe tells you, for example, that a '6' means a wait of 60 minutes at Space Mountain at noon, and a '4' means a 40 minute-wait at Space Mountain at noon, then you've got something to go on. AFAIK, only 2 calendars do that.

 

[HRHPrincessAriel]

I like using The ones from the site that can't be named.

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

easy wdw has the best crowd calendar imo

 

[monothingie]

Here's our crowd report for the week of Dec 7-13, 2014.

Same report for week of Dec 14-20, 2014.

If you want to see how actual waits compared to our predictions, on an attraction-by-attraction basis, we show those numbers on our crowd calendar every day for the previous day (top of the page, where it says "How we did yesterday").



There's some truth to this, but it's limited to certain scenarios. Our models have shown some problems dealing with combinations of scenarios it hasn't seen before. One example was last November at the MK, where the combination of MVMCP, MVMCP, Evening EMH, and MVMCP on Thu, Fri, Sat, and Sun, was something we hadn't seen before. But after a couple of those, we updated the models and got better results.

Things like free dining and other sales tend to be easier to predict.



I look at crowd calendar predictions and results every day. Neither we nor Josh at ******* are guessing, by any reasonable definition of the word. Both have misses, sometimes large, but on a day to day basis they're far better than random guessing would get you.

The thing you want to look for in a calendar, is whether there's any objective, publicly verifiable definition of what the scale means. So let's say Moe's Tavern puts out a calendar that says the Magic Kingdom is going to be a 6 today and a 4 tomorrow. If Moe tells you, for example, that a '6' means a wait of 60 minutes at Space Mountain at noon, and a '4' means a 40 minute-wait at Space Mountain at noon, then you've got something to go on. AFAIK, only 2 calendars do that.

I was there that week (7-14), and the analysis is legit. Estimates were pretty accurate.

 

[monothingie]

There are no real accurate crowd calanders. People are just guessing now. If anyone is predicting anytime in December is slow that right there should tell you they have no clue.

And you'd be wrong.

 

[BoarderPhreak]

2015: Crowded

The end.