Crowd Calendars

[sm57co]

Hello!
Wondering if you all feel those online crowd calendars are fairly accurate and just how much crowds can be lower/higher etc ...? Booking a 4 day trip for mid Jan and in the past we have always used park hopper. With the new FP+ system and not being able to split parks, I'm thinking of not getting the hopper. SO, I'm wondering if you think it's worth the extra $240 to enjoy the six magic hours we would get over the four days OR skip those magic hour parks and go with the "recommended" lower crowd parks on those days?

 

[stevehousse]

Personally i tend to stay away from EMH with morning hours, usually they r crowded!

In regards to the crowd calanders, don't just look at one. There r 4 different sites I believe that hve crowd calanders, and I usually will look at all of them and make a concensus of which parks r the best after that. Sometimes they can vary from site to site...

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

With the new FP+ system and not being able to split parks, I'm thinking of not getting the hopper.

You can still split the parks - you just can't make FP+ selections for the second park until you get there (assuming you book FP+ in the first park)

 

[MountainMedic'sWife]

You can still split the parks - you just can't make FP+ selections for the second park until you get there (assuming you book FP+ in the first park)

Right. Or: Hit morning EMH and then park-hop to another park where you already have scheduled fast passes for the afternoon.

 

[sm57co]

Personally i tend to stay away from EMH with morning hours, usually they r crowded!

In regards to the crowd calanders, don't just look at one. There r 4 different sites I believe that hve crowd calanders, and I usually will look at all of them and make a concensus of which parks r the best after that. Sometimes they can vary from site to site...

Thanks stevehousse - I will cross check a couple! I do agree with the site's (easyWDW in this case) logic that most resort guests will initially pick the day with the magic hours without considering crowds. Seems like the logical "better value". So I'm just trying to weigh the value of paying for the hopper, hitting just those magic hours but spending the day at the other parks. +$60 bucks to add pHopper to a ticket and I'd have 6 magic hours during my 4 day stay. $10 bucks per person per every extra hour of magic -Ha! Kind of seems worth it to me. Unless those crowd calendars aren't very accurate??

 

[Chernaboggles]

Hello!
Wondering if you all feel those online crowd calendars are fairly accurate and just how much crowds can be lower/higher etc ...? Booking a 4 day trip for mid Jan and in the past we have always used park hopper. With the new FP+ system and not being able to split parks, I'm thinking of not getting the hopper. SO, I'm wondering if you think it's worth the extra $240 to enjoy the six magic hours we would get over the four days OR skip those magic hour parks and go with the "recommended" lower crowd parks on those days?

I think crowd calendars are like weather sites - they give you a good general idea of what to expect but a surprise (good OR bad!) is always possible. You should definitely check the open/close times of the various parks before you make your decisions, though. We're going in January too and I noticed that MK closes early on a lot of nights, presumably because of low crowds. EMH might be more valuable if your overall park time is lowered by winter hours.

 

[sm57co]

Right. Or: Hit morning EMH and then park-hop to another park where you already have scheduled fast passes for the afternoon.

Yea, MountainMedic'sWife - I think I may do that actually. 6 magic hours over a four day trip is like adding another half day of park time. I like that strategy. Kids are a little older 11 & 13, so we can push through and maximize the whole day!

 

[sm57co]

I think crowd calendars are like weather sites - they give you a good general idea of what to expect but a surprise (good OR bad!) is always possible. You should definitely check the open/close times of the various parks before you make your decisions, though. We're going in January too and I noticed that MK closes early on a lot of nights, presumably because of low crowds. EMH might be more valuable if your overall park time is lowered by winter hours.

Chernaboggles - I noticed those earlier close times as well. We're headed the week of the 18th. probably hitting 21, 22, 23, 24 to avoid that Martin Luther King Jr. day on the 19th. I noticed a couple of 8pm closings at MK during my stay.

 

[sm57co]

You can still split the parks - you just can't make FP+ selections for the second park until you get there (assuming you book FP+ in the first park)

Oh I didn't realize this. I better brush up on my FP+ facts. I thought it was still 1 park. I do know about the ability to now add ONCE you've finished them all but I thought that was still limited to one park. Thanks for the info.

 

[Chernaboggles]

Chernaboggles - I noticed those earlier close times as well. We're headed the week of the 18th. probably hitting 21, 22, 23, 24 to avoid that Martin Luther King Jr. day on the 19th. I noticed a couple of 8pm closings at MK during my stay.

They may extend the hours - we went last February and initially the parks were closing early, then that changed closer to the trip. However, I checked last year and there WERE a lot of 8pm closings in January, so it's definitely something to be aware of.

Personally, I think the EMH and general flexibility of park hopping is worth the extra cost. You're spending all that money to be at WDW at all, I think you're better off paying a bit more to maximize your choices. On a low crowd day, you can get an amazing amount done in a very short amount of time. On our February trip we never used a single FastPass, we rode everything standby and never waited more than 20 minutes for anything. Sometimes we hit 3 different parks in one day, and we were staying off-site. Unless it'll break the bank, spring for the hoppers. You'll probably be glad you did.

 

[pajammies]

Just for a different opinion than most others above, the last two times we went to Disney, we did not get the park hopper and were completely fine with it. We went in January one of those times, and it's because it was slow that we were able to take our time and not worry about wasting our time in lines. So we just did our favorite parks more than once during our stay. Plus it can take 30 minutes to get from one park to another if you include wait time. So your not wasting that time 4-6 times in a week.

 

[dreamfinder]

Unless those crowd calendars aren't very accurate??

It's hard to be really accurate without having solid access to WDWs actual numbers. While @lentesta has a ton of data to pack up their estimates, it's still a best guess. I believe they basically split the year up into 1/10ths, so each rating gets roughly 36 days assigned to it. So the lowest 10% days, up to the highest 10% days. So day 36 may be a 1, but the estimate may only be 500 less than day 37 at a 2. So there is that to think about. But also, no one has all the data. A tour group decides to head to one park one day and bam, that's another 200 people not accounted for. Or an offsite convention decides to add a park day. Or it rains so people leave early.

 

[sm57co]

They may extend the hours - we went last February and initially the parks were closing early, then that changed closer to the trip. However, I checked last year and there WERE a lot of 8pm closings in January, so it's definitely something to be aware of.

Personally, I think the EMH and general flexibility of park hopping is worth the extra cost. You're spending all that money to be at WDW at all, I think you're better off paying a bit more to maximize your choices. On a low crowd day, you can get an amazing amount done in a very short amount of time. On our February trip we never used a single FastPass, we rode everything standby and never waited more than 20 minutes for anything. Sometimes we hit 3 different parks in one day, and we were staying off-site. Unless it'll break the bank, spring for the hoppers. You'll probably be glad you did.

So true! You may have tipped this one in for me. Airfare, hotel park tickets. So much to get out there, might as well put the icing on the cake. Some of my favorite memories are of things that happened in Magic Hours ... Not having to get out of a log in Splash Mountain for a second go around, a boat all to ourselves in Pirates, etc ... little things that we get a big kick out of.

 

[sm57co]

Just for a different opinion than most others above, the last two times we went to Disney, we did not get the park hopper and were completely fine with it. We went in January one of those times, and it's because it was slow that we were able to take our time and not worry about wasting our time in lines. So we just did our favorite parks more than once during our stay. Plus it can take 30 minutes to get from one park to another if you include wait time. So your not wasting that time 4-6 times in a week.

This is a very good perspective and it's what I'm wrestling with! I get very crazy thinking I have to not miss a minute in the parks but I always end up having a good time you know? I'm just the kind of person who thinks, wait, I'm in my hotel room a 9:00 p.m. watching Stacey's Must Do Disney and there are families at Magic Kingdom right now and I'm not allowed in? Nooo!!

 

[lentesta]

It's hard to be really accurate without having solid access to WDWs actual numbers. While @lentesta has a ton of data to pack up their estimates, it's still a best guess. I believe they basically split the year up into 1/10ths, so each rating gets roughly 36 days assigned to it. So the lowest 10% days, up to the highest 10% days. So day 36 may be a 1, but the estimate may only be 500 less than day 37 at a 2. So there is that to think about. But also, no one has all the data. A tour group decides to head to one park one day and bam, that's another 200 people not accounted for. Or an offsite convention decides to add a park day. Or it rains so people leave early.

Ah, we changed the scale in November, 2013. It's now roughly a bell curve, with fewer 1's and 10's, and more 4's, 5's, and 6's.

We show our predictions for "yesterday" vs what happened in the parks, every day on the crowd calendar. Over the last 30 days, we're predicting average wait times +/- 10 minutes at the 4 parks' headliner attractions. For summer, we were closer to +/- 7 minutes. The "September slowdown" at EP and AK is more pronounced than we anticipated.

 

[dreamfinder]

Ah, we changed the scale in November, 2013. It's now roughly a bell curve, with fewer 1's and 10's, and more 4's, 5's, and 6's.

We show our predictions for "yesterday" vs what happened in the parks, every day on the crowd calendar. Over the last 30 days, we're predicting average wait times +/- 10 minutes at the 4 parks' headliner attractions. For summer, we were closer to +/- 7 minutes. The "September slowdown" at EP and AK is more pronounced than we anticipated.

And this is exactly why I tagged the source. Musta been listening to an older podcast when you explained the 10ths. Always appreciate a bit more insight to your number crunching, I'm strangely fascinated by that stuff.

 

[Chernaboggles]

This is a very good perspective and it's what I'm wrestling with! I get very crazy thinking I have to not miss a minute in the parks but I always end up having a good time you know? I'm just the kind of person who thinks, wait, I'm in my hotel room a 9:00 p.m. watching Stacey's Must Do Disney and there are families at Magic Kingdom right now and I'm not allowed in? Nooo!!

When I struggle with this sort of thing, I try to prioritize the money. Is there any single thing (or group of things) you'd RATHER do with $240? A dining experience, a tour, a particular souvenir?

 

[sxeensweet]

Especially for a shorter trip and a time of year when parks have shorter hours I would not go without a park hopper! You possibly will regret it if you do not get one. Also you can still get FP+ for another park in the same day once you use your 1st 3 passes for the day. But even without making FP you still might want to go to another park in the evening that is still open for several ore hours on such a short trip. Also for dining you would not be limited to eat at the 1 park you choose for the day.

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

Also for dining you would not be limited to eat at the 1 park you choose for the day.

That is such a good point

 

[TXDisney]

I think it's pretty accurate in general, but if you've gone during a certain time I'd pay attention more so to that. I mean Friday, Saturday are crowded anytime of the year. Also I'm going here in a week, and according to calendars it says that's ideal. But the food and wine festival starts next Friday, and it will be packed that Friday, Saturday and Sunday we're there. A great time to go is also the week after thanksgiving. We found the parks open and it's decorated for Christmas. I like the flower and garden festival as well, haven't found the ideal time yet to go to that. I've been in early April and early may, both not bad, but still get that spring break crowd.