Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[danlb_2000]

We shall see. I live in a very liberal state. In 3 weeks, the only restriction we will still have is masks. If 60% of Americans are vaccinated by 7/1, there will be zero political wherewithal to maintain restrictions. Not even the President is suggesting that we demand masks by summer.

You don’t win re-election on negativity. And the majority of state governors along with every House representative and 1/3 of Senators are up next year. They come in 2 flavors—1 flavor thinks this whole thing is a hoax and wants mandates gone yesterday. The other trusts science and is telling its supporters to get vaccinated ASAP. Once they are vaccinated, what do they say to their supporters? “Everything is good; I got us here; vote for me.”

Observe the California governor to watch this political maneuver.

Wish I had your optimism.

 

[donaldtoo]

Looks like I probably originally put this post in the wrong thread...

As far as vaccines go...
Both my folks and MIL (all in their early to late 80’s) were all fully vaccinated weeks ago. DWifey and myself (57 and 58) got our first dose this past Tuesday evening. Our youngest DD (26) is a teacher and fully vaccinated. Our DS (28) and our SonIL (30) both got their first doses the week before us. Our oldest DD (29) is expecting our second granddaughter in July, so she has not yet been vaccinated.
My next youngest bro and his DWifey (mid 50’s), and their DD (late teens) have all been fully vaccinated. Their son (early 20’s) got COVID months ago at college (Texas A&M) and apparently still has antibodies, so has not yet been vaccinated.
My youngest bro and his DWifey (early 50’s), and their 3 kiddos (teens) have not yet been vaccinated.
I’m not sure about my lil’ sis’ and DH (late 40’s), and their 5 kiddos (pre-teens, teens) in Louisiana though.
The rest of us mentioned above all live in Texas.
Even so, all of us are still following COVID protocols like we did before for now...wearing masks, distancing, and not gathering in large groups. Hopefully, that will change relatively soon...!!!

 

[ToTBellHop]

Wish I had your optimism.

It’s not optimism. It’s a realistic view of American politics. Any politician cares about people dying slightly less than they care about winning their next election. If you don’t put your own elections before everything else, you don’t stay in politics long. Sacrificing a certain number of pawns is typically part of the game. Just gotta protect the king....

 

[GoofGoof]

Looks like I probably originally put this post in the wrong thread...

As far as vaccines go...
Both my folks and MIL (all in their early to late 80’s) were all fully vaccinated weeks ago. DWifey and myself (57 and 58) got our first dose this past Tuesday evening. Our youngest DD (26) is a teacher and fully vaccinated. Our DS (28) and our SonIL (30) both got their first doses the week before us. Our oldest DD (29) is expecting our second granddaughter in July, so she has not yet been vaccinated.
My next youngest bro and his DWifey (mid 50’s), and their DD (late teens) have all been fully vaccinated. There son (early 20’s) got COVID months ago at college (Texas A&M) and apparently still has antibodies, so has not yet been vaccinated.
My youngest bro and his DWifey (early 50’s), and their 3 kiddos (teens) have not yet been vaccinated.
I’m not sure about my lil’ sis’ and DH (late 40’s), and their 5 kiddos (pre-teens, teens) in Louisiana though.
The rest of us mentioned above all live in Texas.
Even so, all of us are still following COVID protocols like we did before for now...wearing masks, distancing, and not gathering in large groups. Hopefully, that will change relatively soon...!!!

You get 2 likes from me

 

[GoofGoof]

Wish I had your optimism.

I have been very conservative in my opinions throughout the pandemic but I am leaning toward more optimism these days on things working out. I don’t think it’s unrealistic that if we get to 60%+ vaccinated that almost all restrictions are gone within a month or 2. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s looking more and more likely.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm amazed at how many people have ACTUALLY skipped visiting with relatives for an entire year. We never even considered it, and my mother-in-law was going through chemo for half the year.

Separately, I wish some publication would go out on a limb and predict a real "back to normal" timeline instead of the most conservative possible estimate. I read one yesterday that predicted September but it was based on 1.2 million doses per day, two doses for everyone, no J&J supply bump, no accounting for existing population immunity, and the highest estimate of population immunity needed.

The problem is that "going back to normal" should be predicated on the stats of hospitalizations and death rates getting low and no danger of them rising again.

So, when will that be?

It's difficult to predict. You have people who can't or won't be vaccinated. You have children that need to be vaccinated, too. You have variants that may not be affected by the vaccine, and so, we'll need the boosters.

The rosiest prediction is when all adults are vaccinated by the end of May. But then you have children and variants and still many adults unvaccinated. That can be resolved in a few months, or up to half a year.

 

[correcaminos]

I'm amazed at how many people have ACTUALLY skipped visiting with relatives for an entire year. We never even considered it, and my mother-in-law was going through chemo for half the year.

Separately, I wish some publication would go out on a limb and predict a real "back to normal" timeline instead of the most conservative possible estimate. I read one yesterday that predicted September but it was based on 1.2 million doses per day, two doses for everyone, no J&J supply bump, no accounting for existing population immunity, and the highest estimate of population immunity needed.

My family had either high risk issues (some auto immune) or not at all physically close. Some lived in areas that had quarantine restrictions upon arrival back home we were not able to do with school or work. In one case we were not allowed in the long term care facility too. Only 1 person so I did not get to see my aunt in person before she died.

You do you, but don't judge people for following rules or keeping at risk loved ones safe. I know more than one family who gathered and someone infected others. In a few cases some died. We buried a lovely couple in Feb due to covid

Immunity timeframe keeps jumping based on supplies. Last I saw mid May all adults should be able to be vaccinated.

My guess honestly it that people will stop their willingness to wear masks and such quickly. That may drive a relaxation (no one wanting to police it) quicker than some officials are willing. Personally I'll put up with indoors longer than outdoors as well.

 

[ToTBellHop]

My family had either high risk issues (some auto immune) or not at all physically close. Some lived in areas that had quarantine restrictions upon arrival back home we were not able to do with school or work. In one case we were not allowed in the long term care facility too. Only 1 person so I did not get to see my aunt in person before she died.

You do you, but don't judge people for following rules or keeping at risk loved ones safe. I know more than one family who gathered and someone infected others. In a few cases some died. We buried a lovely couple in Feb due to covid

Immunity timeframe keeps jumping based on supplies. Last I saw mid May all adults should be able to be vaccinated.

My guess honestly it that people will stop their willingness to wear masks and such quickly. That may drive a relaxation (no one wanting to police it) quicker than some officials are willing. Personally I'll put up with indoors longer than outdoors as well.

I honestly think timing will help here—most people vaccinated in time for summer, when most events move outside anyway. Let’s hope there isn’t a variant resurgence by fall. It would be nearly impossible to convince people to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas again.

 

[GoofGoof]

The problem is that "going back to normal" should be predicated on the stats of hospitalizations and death rates getting low and no danger of them rising again.

So, when will that be?

It's difficult to predict. You have people who can't or won't be vaccinated. You have children that need to be vaccinated, too. You have variants that may not be affected by the vaccine, and so, we'll need the boosters.

The rosiest prediction is when all adults are vaccinated by the end of May. But then you have children and variants and still many adults unvaccinated. That can be resolved in a few months, or up to half a year.

If we weight the hospitalizations and deaths heavier then case numbers children are less of a concern. They are naturally very unlikely to get sick enough to require hospitalization or die from Covid. Not zero, but not very high at all. As far as the people who choose not to get vaccinated, that’s their choice. Once the vaccine is available to everyone we can’t expect the 60-70% of the population who got it to continue to live like pre-vaccine times to protect those who didn’t get the vaccine. That’s going to be an impossible sell politically as many of the people who have been in favor of Covid safety protocols will flip sides and join the deniers who already think the restrictions are unnecessary. It’s going to be impossible to hold back that tide.

As far as variants I think there is a real possible threat, but nothing is guaranteed. Maybe a vaccine resistant mutation becomes dominant and that sets the timeline back, so be it. We have learned to live with disappointments. I don’t think we need to bake that into any prediction on timeline. I think it’s safe to say barring a major manufacturing setback or a new variant that is vaccine resistant, if roughly 70% of the 12+ population is vaccinated by the end of May we will have roughly 200M people or 60%+ of the population immune and in theory within a month or 2 of that we could see most or all restrictions lifted. I say 12+ because I think Pfizer and Moderna trials on 12+ wrap up by May. The big IFs are around manufacturing which I’m confident in success, vaccine acceptance which I am less confident in but it’s getting better as time goes on and a new variant not becoming dominant. Since we have no concrete evidence a new variant is inevitable and no way of predicting whether it happens I tend to leave it out or said another way, we could see a return to some form of normal as early as July 4th as long as a new variant doesn‘t derail that timeline and require a 3rd shot in the late Summer into Fall.

 

[ToTBellHop]

If we weight the hospitalizations and deaths heavier then case numbers children are less of a concern. They are naturally very unlikely to get sick enough to require hospitalization or die from Covid. Not zero, but not very high at all. As far as the people who choose not to get vaccinated, that’s their choice. Once the vaccine is available to everyone we can’t expect the 60-70% of the population who got it to continue to live like pre-vaccine times to protect those who didn’t get the vaccine. That’s going to be an impossible sell politically as many of the people who have been in favor of Covid safety protocols will flip sides and join the deniers who already think the restrictions are unnecessary. It’s going to be impossible to hold back that tide.

As far as variants I think there is a real possible threat, but nothing is guaranteed. Maybe a vaccine resistant mutation becomes dominant and that sets the timeline back, so be it. We have learned to live with disappointments. I don’t think we need to bake that into any prediction on timeline. I think it’s safe to say barring a major manufacturing setback or a new variant that is vaccine resistant, if roughly 70% of the 12+ population is vaccinated by the end of May we will have roughly 200M people or 60%+ of the population immune and in theory within a month or 2 of that we could see most or all restrictions lifted. I say 12+ because I think Pfizer and Moderna trials on 12+ wrap up by May. The big IFs are around manufacturing which I’m confident in success, vaccine acceptance which I am less confident in but it’s getting better as time goes on and a new variant not becoming dominant. Since we have no concrete evidence a new variant is inevitable and no way of predicting whether it happens I tend to leave it out or said another way, we could see a return to some form of normal as early as July 4th as long as a new variant doesn‘t derail that timeline and require a 3rd shot in the late Summer into Fall.

I’ll say this. The only variant that has taken hold in America, thus far, is the UK variant. The vaccines obviously work against it or we wouldn’t be seeing improvement in the UK.

Let‘s hope there is never a variant that fully-escapes the vaccines such that it is as contagious and deadly as the original and no one has immunity. That seems rather unlikely but sometimes the worst thing imaginable happens. But, we won’t stay in masks just because there’s a 0.01% chance of that happening. We would ditch masks and bring them back if we have to.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’ll say this. The only variant that has taken hold in America, thus far, is the UK variant. The vaccines obviously work against it or we wouldn’t be seeing improvement in the UK.

Let‘s hope there is never a variant that fully-escapes the vaccines such that it is as contagious and deadly as the original and no one has immunity. That seems rather unlikely but sometimes the worst thing imaginable happens. But, we won’t stay in masks just because there’s a 0.01% chance of that happening. We would ditch masks and bring them back if we have to.

Yes, exactly. I got jumped all over in the other thread for pointing this out. We also heard back in Jan that experts predicted the UK variant would be dominant in the US by March and it didn’t happen. Yes, it’s here and spreading but it’s still not dominant. I also pointed out that the vaccines work vs that variant. I don’t want to discount the possibility of variants but I think in some ways they are held out as a reason to keep restrictions a little longer and that may not be necessary. I’m all for caution. I’m against removing mask mandates now as I think we hold on a little longer. What I would not favor is restrictions just in case. Masks and distancing should be gone once case numbers drop and enough people are vaccinated.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Another big jump in vaccines administered. 7-day average is over 2.1 million per day.

 

[correcaminos]

I honestly think timing will help here—most people vaccinated in time for summer, when most events move outside anyway. Let’s hope there isn’t a variant resurgence by fall. It would be nearly impossible to convince people to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas again.

I'm more confident that the vaccines will work well enough against the variants. Especially at more are vaccinated, variants cannot happen easily. But who knows. I think this winter will be different. It's already different here as it is.

 

[correcaminos]

Another big jump in vaccines administered. 7-day average is over 2.1 million per day.

View attachment 537813

Not gonna like this one simply for the evil character you chose

Yes, exactly. I got jumped all over in the other thread for pointing this out. We also heard back in Jan that experts predicted the UK variant would be dominant in the US by March and it didn’t happen. Yes, it’s here and spreading but it’s still not dominant. I also pointed out that the vaccines work vs that variant. I don’t want to discount the possibility of variants but I think in some ways they are held out as a reason to keep restrictions a little longer and that may not be necessary. I’m all for caution. I’m against removing mask mandates now as I think we hold on a little longer. What I would not favor is restrictions just in case. Masks and distancing should be gone once case numbers drop and enough people are vaccinated.

This is very well stated. I do think the other thread jumped poorly on the idea. Our state plans to drop masks when cases are at a certain level.

 

[GoofGoof]

Another big jump in vaccines administered. 7-day average is over 2.1 million per day.

View attachment 537813

Yesterday was 2.9M so we are close to breaking the 3M in a day number. I think we could get closer to 3.5M by the end of the month. That would put us over 100M doses a month administered.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Yesterday was 2.9M so we are close to breaking the 3M in a day number. I think we could get closer to 3.5M by the end of the month. That would put us over 100M doses a month administered.

That’s where we need to be to keep up with deliveries. I doubt we get much higher than that because at some point within 2 months, most likely, appointments will no longer all be filled. Some states will get there sooner, obviously. Let’s hope, as that happens, excess doses are quickly shuttled to states with higher rates of uptake.

 

[GoofGoof]

That’s where we need to be to keep up with deliveries. I doubt we get much higher than that because at some point within 2 months, most likely, appointments will no longer all be filled. Some states will get there sooner, obviously. Let’s hope, as that happens, excess doses are quickly shuttled to states with higher rates of uptake.

Yep. I think we have the capacity to do 5M doses a day but deliveries are not going to get that high before we get through the bulk of people. I think you are right that the daily average will probably drop as we start to run out of people to vaccinate. It will be all over the place. I think even at the state level when all is said and done there will be states on the high end with 80%+ of the population vaccinated and on the low end under 60%. Within states there will also be vast differences. Where I live in PA I wouldn’t be surprised if 85-90% get the vaccine and there are more rural areas that will struggle to get above 50%. They will have to allocate based on demand vs just population within states and also at the federal level to the states. There’s a high likelihood of Covid outbreaks geographically in places where the percent will be too low.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yep. I think we have the capacity to do 5M doses a day but deliveries are not going to get that high before we get through the bulk of people. I think you are right that the daily average will probably drop as we start to run out of people to vaccinate. It will be all over the place. I think even at the state level when all is said and done there will be states on the high end with 80%+ of the population vaccinated and on the low end under 60%. Within states there will also be vast differences. Where I live in PA I wouldn’t be surprised if 85-90% get the vaccine and there are more rural areas that will struggle to get above 50%. They will have to allocate based on demand vs just population within states and also at the federal level to the states. There’s a high likelihood of Covid outbreaks geographically in places where the percent will be too low.

If the low vax penetration areas are also the most rural and also the least likely to have been following any mitigation efforts along the way, it might not matter much if they get stuck.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Even CNN, which seems to be more negative on COVID-19 since negativity gets clicks, admits we are on our way to herd immunity this summer. The only thing that could ruin that is a new variant with dozens of mutations. And it would need to develop like...now.

Unlikely but not impossible.

 

[GoofGoof]

If the low vax penetration areas are also the most rural and also the least likely to have been following any mitigation efforts along the way, it might not matter much if they get stuck.

....until there’s an outbreak in an area and someone from there comes to WDW with it. If people without the vaccine agreed to stay put where ever they live until we are sure the pandemic is over then I’d have no problem with them not getting vaccinated ever. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. If you want the Summer back and want to be able to travel and do whatever you want ASAP then you should get the vaccine. If you are satisfied living a mostly isolated existence for a while longer then it really doesn’t matter.