Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[drizgirl]

I don't think it's making it go faster. We are limited by supply, not by willingness to get it. We're talking months differences too which is big to me. I'm not hearing anyone begging for others to show up here. We're all begging for the next group to be released. What also bugs me is inconsistencies. We could have my husband vaccinated in PA but jot OH. My loved one with 1D would've been covered too. When you have a real fear of getting covid due to a disease you have not caused from any fault of your own, it's a bigger issue than a young and healthy person who has less risk.

Complete agree!

Yeah, I think demand is still far outstripping supply in most places right now.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Was talking with the WalMart pharmacist yesterday and learned that they are only receiving 20 doses of the vaccine per day. That's it. That's hardly enough to move the needle on a daily basis.

 

[CastAStone]

Was talking with the WalMart pharmacist yesterday and learned that they are only receiving 20 doses of the vaccine per day. That's it. That's hardly enough to move the needle on a daily basis.

What state? The Walmart’s here aren’t even participating.

In most states, the state or county sites are getting most of the vaccine and the private pharmacies get whatever is left. That will likely change a lot over the next 2 weeks as we see Pfizer and Moderna increase their output by 60-80%, and potentially J&J come online. Smart states will send J&J to separate sites than Pfizer/Moderna, which would mean a lot of it going to retail pharmacies.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I don't think it's making it go faster. We are limited by supply, not by willingness to get it. We're talking months differences too which is big to me. I'm not hearing anyone begging for others to show up here. We're all begging for the next group to be released. What also bugs me is inconsistencies. We could have my husband vaccinated in PA but jot OH. My loved one with 1D would've been covered too. When you have a real fear of getting covid due to a disease you have not caused from any fault of your own, it's a bigger issue than a young and healthy person who has less risk.

Complete agree!

This discussion is exhausting. If you don’t think methods of determining eligibility are impacting administration, why have some states administered 25% more vaccine than others. They are receiving the same number of vaccines (per capita) from the federal government.

I’m going back to the ride boards. This thread has turned into a toxic echo chamber with less focus on the science by the day.

I’ll leave you with this: in my state, and I can’t imagine we are an outlier, 96% of covid deaths are in those who are over age 55.

 

[MrHappy]

This discussion is exhausting. If you don’t think methods of determining eligibility are impacting administration, why have some states administered 25% more vaccine than others. They are receiving the same number of vaccines (per capita) from the federal government.

I’m going back to the ride boards. This thread has turned into a toxic echo chamber with less focus on the science by the day.

I’ll leave you with this: in my state, and I can’t imagine we are an outlier, 96% of covid deaths are in those who are over age 55.

Agreed. Where has @GoofGoof been - I need me some facts.

 

[Trackmaster]

Was talking with the WalMart pharmacist yesterday and learned that they are only receiving 20 doses of the vaccine per day. That's it. That's hardly enough to move the needle on a daily basis.

Another thing to consider too is that the people that they're prioritizing (other than healthcare workers) won't do much to stop the spread. It may be the right decision to prioritize the elderly and pre-condition people, but statistically, that's not how its spreading. Its mostly spreading from healthy people who don't want to quarantine or wear masks. Technically, if you vaccinated them first, the curve would flatten a lot faster.

So I'm not saying its wrong to prioritize the people who actually need to save their lives, but just that this method won't do much to flatten the curve. The health care workers will though. They work dangerous jobs where they are at a very high risk of infection.

 

[correcaminos]

This discussion is exhausting. If you don’t think methods of determining eligibility are impacting administration, why have some states administered 25% more vaccine than others. They are receiving the same number of vaccines (per capita) from the federal government.

I’m going back to the ride boards. This thread has turned into a toxic echo chamber with less focus on the science by the day.

I’ll leave you with this: in my state, and I can’t imagine we are an outlier, 96% of covid deaths are in those who are over age 55.

Because some states are just bad at what they are doing. Snow storms delayed my state as well. If this is exhausting then don't bother. I prefer what my state is doing vs just good luck to those at high risk who happen to be younger. Supply is the issue period. Nothing else.

If you think this thread is toxic why bother posting. Sorry but your opinions aren't the only one that matters here and heaven forbid a little discussion about doing things differently than what you want pops up. I'm honestly tired of people not actually listening to other ideas and instead do not so subtle insults like this.

I'll leave you with this. I've watched 40 somethings deathly ill with this. Classmates have died. Your idea isn't the only valid idea out there.

Agreed. Where has @GoofGoof been - I need me some facts.

Not sure, but you realize they are plucking same facts that we all can get.

 

[MrHappy]

Because some states are just bad at what they are doing. Full stop on that. If this is exhausting then don't bother. I prefer what my state is doing vs just good luck to those at high risk who happen to be younger. Supply is the issue period. Nothing else


Not sure, but you realize they are plucking same facts that we all can get.

Some are better at curating, analyzing and presenting. IMHO.

 

[correcaminos]

Some are better at curating, analyzing and presenting. IMHO.

Or saying what you want to hear too.... sorry I offend with my thoughts. In fact mostly that poster agree more often than not. Sorry I'm over sugar coating for the vast audience. This thread has turned nasty lately and that is kind of sad and why my sugar coating has been removed. Especially since some of us started on this to help.

There is no exact good way to do the tiers. Not all states are equal. Many have had supply issues due to weather on top of regular supply issues. What we are discussing is a matter of opinion and we are allowed to disagree.

Johnson and Johnson is up now and stating 20 million by end of March. 100 million by 1st half of the year. That is really going to help. Supply and weather is the issue now. Not necessarily how states are restricting or not.

Johnson & Johnson says it can provide 20M vaccine doses by late March

The company has applied to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization.

www.politico.com

 

[Polkadotdress]

What state? The Walmart’s here aren’t even participating.

Florida.

 

[MrHappy]

Or saying what you want to hear too.... sorry I offend with my thoughts. In fact mostly that poster agree more often than not. Sorry I'm over sugar coating for the vast audience. This thread has turned nasty lately and that is kind of sad and why my sugar coating has been removed. Especially since some of us started on this to help.

There is no exact good way to do the tiers. Not all states are equal. Many have had supply issues due to weather on top of regular supply issues. What we are discussing is a matter of opinion and we are allowed to disagree.

Johnson and Johnson is up now and stating 20 million by end of March. 100 million by 1st half of the year. That is really going to help. Supply and weather is the issue now. Not necessarily how states are restricting or not.

Johnson & Johnson says it can provide 20M vaccine doses by late March

The company has applied to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization.

www.politico.com

I’m not referring to you. So I’m not offended.

 

[correcaminos]

I’m not referring to you. So I’m not offended.

Sorry hard to guess tone sometimes. Goofgoof is great at doing math which I rely on excel to help me to dyslexia (why I rely on spell check too). I like them for that.

The J&J should be very encouraging given it would cover a significant portion of the population.

 

[Shouldigo12]

This discussion is exhausting. If you don’t think methods of determining eligibility are impacting administration, why have some states administered 25% more vaccine than others. They are receiving the same number of vaccines (per capita) from the federal government.

I’m going back to the ride boards. This thread has turned into a toxic echo chamber with less focus on the science by the day.

I’ll leave you with this: in my state, and I can’t imagine we are an outlier, 96% of covid deaths are in those who are over age 55.

And here I was today, thinking about how much I love this thread because everyone can still (mostly) get along, even when we disagree.

You can have your opinion about whether we should go solely by age and others can have theirs. What looked to me like a pretty calm disagreement isn't toxic, it's just sharing our thoughts and the reasoning behind them.

 

[GoofGoof]

Agreed. Where has @GoofGoof been - I need me some facts.

On distribution differences by state I’m 100% convinced that the discrepancy is almost solely related to how many doses are being held back for 2nd shots and/or reporting delays. I know here in PA they ramped up vaccinations because we had “fallen behind” other states. Now this week they announced a huge shortage of 2nd doses for people who are coming due. They are cancelling appointments and delaying 2nd shots to 42 days now which is the max recommended by the manufacturers. You can’t get blood from a stone and unless perhaps you are Jesus you can’t make make vaccine doses appear out of the sky. I don’t think many or maybe any states are just sitting on a warehouse full of unused vaccine. It’s all about the timing of the reporting and how many doses are reserved for 2nd shots.

As long as a state has a waiting list of people hoping to get their hands on the vaccine there is no delay from including essential workers or people with medical conditions. What states need to do is set the rules and then accept that some level of line jumping will happen. Because some people may try to jump the line is not a good reason to not give priority to essential workers or people with health conditions.

 

[GoofGoof]

Math time

Some news from the manufacturers today. Pfizer and Moderna confirmed they will ramp up to a level of 50M doses a month by March. That allows them to hit the targets of 100M by March (120M for Pfizer), 200M by May and 300M by July. Everything still on track from them. In addition JnJ confirmed 20M doses available in March and confirmed they will hit their target for 100M doses by end of June. The news of less than 10M JnJ doses by end of April has been completely debunked at this point. Best to listen to the actual companies and not the political talking heads. Also recent studies suggest that the first dose of Pfizer and Moderna may actually be close to 90% effective. That being said when talking about preventing spread and moving toward herd immunity we can actually probably focus more on how many people have at least 1 shot instead of only counting people with 2 doses.

So as of right now the doses distributed by Pfizer and Moderna have gone roughly 70/30 1st shot vs 2nd shot. Assuming the deliveries ramp up through the end of March that is likely to continue (might get even more skewed towards first shots). Once delivery levels stabilize it should move towards 50/50 about a month later so likely end of April. So far of the 64M doses delivered 44M went to first doses while 20M went to 2nd shots. If we assume Pfizer and Moderna hit targets and deliver 220M doses by 3/31 and we assume the same 70/30 split that means 154M first doses and 66M 2nd. When you add in 20M doses from JnJ that‘s enough doses for 174M Americans to have at least 1 shot in them. That’s 52% of the population or if you only count adults 18+ 70% of all adults. Fully vaccinated with 2 shots (including JnJ single shot vaccine) is 86M or 26% of the whole population and 34% of adults.

The naysayers at this point will be quick to point out that doses delivered don‘t equal doses distributed and also that it takes 2 weeks after the dose to reach immunity. This is true, but its not as big an impact as some people like to make it out. We are currently on a pace where all unused doses would be used up in just over a week if the shipments stopped. So while there is a timing lag it’s only a fraction of the total doses or the ones that were delivered the last week or 2. Another way to look at it is within a few weeks of 3/31 these numbers hold true as administered not just delivered.

On herd immunity there was some talk initially of reaching a level of herd immunity with 40-60% of the population immune. While more recent narratives push 70 or 80% the truth is we don’t really know. If the 40-60 is accurate and if we have 52% of the population vaccinated then it’s possible we reach a level of herd immunity as early as the first 2 weeks of April Someone may be quick to point out that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective so you need more people vaccinate to account for the 10 to 15% not immune, but we also know by end of March we will likely have 10% of the population “naturally immune” from testing positive and at least another 10% who are immune but never got tested. There is a great deal of overlap between Covid positive people and vaccinated people so I don’t think it’s appropriate to just add 20% to the vaccination number. As a conservative estimate I am assuming a wash between the people vaccinated that aren’t immune and the people not vaccinated who are naturally immune. If that’s the case and we hit the vaccine delivery targets roughly half the population will no longer be effective carriers. No clue if that means herd immunity or not but it’s a pretty nice number

Even if that’s not enough to reach herd immunity, it’s certainly enough to make a huge impact on cases. We should at a minimum significantly decrease spread. One other aspect to consider is the speed of the rollout to the general public. Dr Fauci caved to political pressure and revised his estimate that the vaccines would be available to the general public by April and bumped it back to June. I think this math (if the deliveries happen) proves his initial date of April was much more accurate. If there are enough doses that 174M people got at least 1 dose by the end of March and we assume a 20% rate of vaccine rejection that means 217M Americans would have had to be offered the first shot. As far as I know we don’t have that many people in the 65+, 16-64 with health conditions and essential worker groups. We only have 250M adults overall so how could it be possible that 217M of the 250M adults were offered the vaccine but it’s still not open to the general public. Seems to me that if we hit targets on deliveries we will run out of willing participants in the priority groups long before June and likely “open season” will begin for the general public in April at the latest.

 

[CastAStone]

Math time

Some news from the manufacturers today. Pfizer and Moderna confirmed they will ramp up to a level of 50M doses a month by March. That allows them to hit the targets of 100M by March (120M for Pfizer), 200M by May and 300M by July. Everything still on track from them. In addition JnJ confirmed 20M doses available in March and confirmed they will hit their target for 100M doses by end of June. The news of less than 10M JnJ doses by end of April has been completely debunked at this point. Best to listen to the actual companies and not the political talking heads. Also recent studies suggest that the first dose of Pfizer and Moderna may actually be close to 90% effective. That being said when talking about preventing spread and moving toward herd immunity we can actually probably focus more on how many people have at least 1 shot instead of only counting people with 2 doses.

So as of right now the doses distributed by Pfizer and Moderna have gone roughly 70/30 1st shot vs 2nd shot. Assuming the deliveries ramp up through the end of March that is likely to continue (might get even more skewed towards first shots). Once delivery levels stabilize it should move towards 50/50 about a month later so likely end of April. So far of the 64M doses delivered 44M went to first doses while 20M went to 2nd shots. If we assume Pfizer and Moderna hit targets and deliver 220M doses by 3/31 and we assume the same 70/30 split that means 154M first doses and 66M 2nd. When you add in 20M doses from JnJ that‘s enough doses for 174M Americans to have at least 1 shot in them. That’s 52% of the population or if you only count adults 18+ 70% of all adults. Fully vaccinated with 2 shots (including JnJ single shot vaccine) is 86M or 26% of the whole population and 34% of adults.

The naysayers at this point will be quick to point out that doses delivered don‘t equal doses distributed and also that it takes 2 weeks after the dose to reach immunity. This is true, but its not as big an impact as some people like to make it out. We are currently on a pace where all unused doses would be used up in just over a week if the shipments stopped. So while there is a timing lag it’s only a fraction of the total doses or the ones that were delivered the last week or 2. Another way to look at it is within a few weeks of 3/31 these numbers hold true as administered not just delivered.

On herd immunity there was some talk initially of reaching a level of herd immunity with 40-60% of the population immune. While more recent narratives push 70 or 80% the truth is we don’t really know. If the 40-60 is accurate and if we have 52% of the population vaccinated then it’s possible we reach a level of herd immunity as early as the first 2 weeks of April Someone may be quick to point out that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective so you need more people vaccinate to account for the 10 to 15% not immune, but we also know by end of March we will likely have 10% of the population “naturally immune” from testing positive and at least another 10% who are immune but never got tested. There is a great deal of overlap between Covid positive people and vaccinated people so I don’t think it’s appropriate to just add 20% to the vaccination number. As a conservative estimate I am assuming a wash between the people vaccinated that aren’t immune and the people not vaccinated who are naturally immune. If that’s the case and we hit the vaccine delivery targets roughly half the population will no longer be effective carriers. No clue if that means herd immunity or not but it’s a pretty nice number

Even if that’s not enough to reach herd immunity, it’s certainly enough to make a huge impact on cases. We should at a minimum significantly decrease spread. One other aspect to consider is the speed of the rollout to the general public. Dr Fauci caved to political pressure and revised his estimate that the vaccines would be available to the general public by April and bumped it back to June. I think this math (if the deliveries happen) proves his initial date of April was much more accurate. If there are enough doses that 174M people got at least 1 dose by the end of March and we assume a 20% rate of vaccine rejection that means 217M Americans would have had to be offered the first shot. As far as I know we don’t have that many people in the 65+, 16-64 with health conditions and essential worker groups. We only have 250M adults overall so how could it be possible that 217M of the 250M adults were offered the vaccine but it’s still not open to the general public. Seems to me that if we hit targets on deliveries we will run out of willing participants in the priority groups long before June and likely “open season” will begin for the general public in April at the latest.

I heard Fauci say on Pod Save America this week May for opening to everyone, July to have enough vaccine for everyone, and August to actually vaccinate everyone. He said however that J&J would accelerate that. He also said his concern in March and April is not production but rather actually having the human capacity to perform the injections.

But I basically agree. And I think gun to his head so would he. It will probably vary a lot by state too. Older states and states with broader definitions of comorbidities will likely open to everyone later.

 

[GoofGoof]

I heard Fauci say on Pod Save America this week May for opening to everyone, July to have enough vaccine for everyone, and August to actually vaccinate everyone. He said however that J&J would accelerate that. He also said his concern in March and April is not production but rather actually having the human capacity to perform the injections.

But I basically agree. And I think gun to his head so would he. It will probably vary a lot by state too. Older states and states with broader definitions of comorbidities will likely open to everyone later.

Makes sense. I have full confidence we will do the higher level of injections once supply is rolled out. During peak flu season months we vaccinate 3M people a day so we know it’s possible and Pfizer not requiring the deep freezers now is a game changer for their vaccine. JnJ will be super quick. They can bang those out within days of receiving and I still favor sending them to specific businesses and larger groups to run mass vaccination clinics.

We will hit a weird time when in certain areas supply exceeds demand and in others there will still be no appointments to be had. At that point the government will need to adjust the supply going to the states. That’s a May problem.

 

[GoofGoof]

I heard Fauci say on Pod Save America this week May for opening to everyone, July to have enough vaccine for everyone, and August to actually vaccinate everyone. He said however that J&J would accelerate that. He also said his concern in March and April is not production but rather actually having the human capacity to perform the injections.

But I basically agree. And I think gun to his head so would he. It will probably vary a lot by state too. Older states and states with broader definitions of comorbidities will likely open to everyone later.

Also if by everyone he includes young kids and pregnant women it may be August. All Americans 12+ should have a dose available to them well before August.

 

[CastAStone]

Also if by everyone he includes young kids and pregnant women it may be August. All Americans 12+ should have a dose available to them well before August.

He was talking 2 doses and just adults, and again, wasn’t including J&J. But I think he was still sandbagging.

 

[MrHappy]

They can bang those out within days of receiving and I still favor sending them to specific businesses and larger groups to run mass vaccination clinics.

I have a feeling this is Connecticut’s play. Keep the age tiers (and educators) for the 2 dose vaccines, and expedite the 1 doses to essentials. Gov isn’t ready to announce this yet since J&J isn’t officially approved.
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