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Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

Will you take a Covid vaccine once one is approved and deemed safe and effective by the FDA?

  • Yes, stick me please

  • No, I will wait

  • No, I will never take one


Results are only viewable after voting.

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
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Gatherings in small private gatherings remains to personal responsibility. Small, private groups decide for themselves.

Half of the population isn't vaccinated yet. So everyone is masked for a while indoors, but not forever. Get vaccinated. Otherwise, we would have to check for vaccinated status, and not worth it since this won't last for long.

- paraphrasing governor​

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Previously, masks outdoors was only for when distancing wasn't an option. Now, not needed at all.


Free beer with a jab incentive going well!! (Along with other incentive programs.)

18+ with at least first dose at ~70%.


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22K 12-15 y.o. got first dose already (4.6% of that population)
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Meanwhile in Texas................

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Getting my second Moderna shot tomorrow.
Directed at the governor, not the poster...

1. The 7 day average for deaths in TX is 46. A one day statistical anomaly is not 'a trend.'

2. The reason the the number of cases is the lowest in over a year -- rather than in the past six months -- is because Texas never had a time of very low case rates in the Summer leading into the Fall that so many other states had. When you get to chose what to compare a current statistic to, you can always find one that makes it look good.

3. TX's positivity is over 4.5%. That's not too bad, but not that good. Comparing it to when it was much worse doesn't make it inherently good.

4. Hospitality rate is like for #2 and #3... it's been consistently way too high for so long. Crowing about how it got lower than the really bad times doesn't make now a really good time.

This is what low standards looks like.
 
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Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Directed at the governor, not the poster...

1. The 7 day average for deaths in TX is 46. A one day statistical anomaly is not 'a trend.'

2. The reason the the number of cases is the lowest in over a year -- rather than in the past six months -- is because Texas never had a time of very low case rates in the Summer leading into the Fall that so many other states had. When you get to chose what to compare a current statistic to, you can always find one that makes it look good.

3. TX's positivity is over 6%. That's not good. Comparing it to when it was much worse doesn't make it inherently good.

4. Hospitality rate is like for #2 and #3... it's been consistently way too high for so long. Crowing about how it got lower than the really bad times doesn't make now a really good time.

This is what low standards looks like.

If it were graphed in a similar fashion, how does it compare to Jersey?
 

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
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My error: I said their positivity trend was over 6%, it's 4.5%. Correcting the post above...

Thanks. Upon first glance my takeaway is that the strong initial reaction in the spring of last year (basically shutting down the economy, schools, businesses, etc) really didn't have much of an impact on the consequential spread or effect of the virus. In fact, it returned with a vengeance across all metrics (cases, hospitalizations, deaths).

Does it look that way to you as well or am I misreading the data?
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Thanks. Upon first glance my takeaway is that the strong initial reaction in the spring of last year (basically shutting down the economy, schools, businesses, etc) really didn't have much of an impact on the consequential spread or effect of the virus. In fact, it returned with a vengeance across all metrics (cases, hospitalizations, deaths).

Does it look that way to you as well or am I misreading the data?
Yes. It does.

It did work for NJ if you look up the thread a bit. But then school, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas laxness ruined it. Vaccines are definitely helping everywhere.
 

SyracuseDisneyFan

Well-Known Member
Governor Cuomo plans to lift the mask mandate this upcoming Wednesday. I'll still have to wear one when I use Uber. Not a big deal for me. Not sure if I'll still have to wear it to work or not.
 

DisneyDoctor

Well-Known Member
I won't comment on vaccines not approved in the US, because I have not followed them closely, but because you bring it up...

There have been zero deaths associated directly with the mRNA vaccines, both in the clinical trials, and after several hundred million doses administered across the world. The expected minor and brief illness symptoms after the second dose are so widely known and documented on this website that I wouldn't even have thought it was worth mentioning. The most serious side effects associated with these vaccines has been anaphylaxis, at a frequency of between 2 to 5 per million doses. Most were able to be treated on the spot with an epinepherine injection, and a small minority required overnight observation in a hospital. There were no deaths associated with anaphylaxis. There have been no reported associations with some of the more serious reactions seen with pre-existing vaccines, such as Bell's palsy, transverse myelitis, thrombosis or Guillan-Barre syndrome.

For the Johnson & Johnson vaccines, besides the usual injection site reactions, there is a very small, but real risk of thrombosis, about 3 per million in the general population, but as high as 12 per million in women of reproductive age. I don't have the exact numbers, but I think there were at least two deaths associated with cerebral venous thrombosis, and although the condition was likely triggered by the vaccine, the deaths themselves were caused by using the wrong treatment (heparin).

So, nobody ever claimed these vaccines were completely without side effects (few vaccines are), but other than some very rare adverse reactions, the vaccines are extremely safe, particularly the mRNA vaccines. And the numbers affected are several orders of magnitude less than what we have seen from COVID, both in deaths and in long-term morbidity, the latter of which does not closely correlate to underlying health conditions.

Finally, and this has been stated again and again on this website, but because you brought it up, I'll state it again. The "we don't know the long-term side effects of the vaccines" is a canard. Out of every vaccine previously developed, the longest latency we've seen for the appearance of a side effect that can be reasonably tied to a vaccine is about 6 weeks. This represents the outer limit to how long Guillan-Barre syndrome might appear following influenza or meningococcus vaccination, and the risk of this reaction is about 1 per million or less. There really isn't a feasible biochemical mechanism for a vaccine to suddenly trigger a reaction months or years later. If a vaccine does trigger an auto-immune reaction, this occurs within days to weeks, not months to years. We now have over a year of trial data on the COVID vaccines, and 6 months of real-world experience, plus over a century of vaccine research in general "Long-term side effects", unless they're part of the sequelae of an acute reaction, really aren't something that exists with vaccines.
The J&J press was bad. It fueled anti-vaccine folks. But, they completely ignored COVIDs thrombosis risk. Morticians where I live had to buy new embalming machines due to the increased viscosity seen after COVID deaths. No hyperbole.
 

GenerationX

Well-Known Member
I won't comment on vaccines not approved in the US, because I have not followed them closely, but because you bring it up...

There have been zero deaths associated directly with the mRNA vaccines, both in the clinical trials, and after several hundred million doses administered across the world. The expected minor and brief illness symptoms after the second dose are so widely known and documented on this website that I wouldn't even have thought it was worth mentioning. The most serious side effects associated with these vaccines has been anaphylaxis, at a frequency of between 2 to 5 per million doses. Most were able to be treated on the spot with an epinepherine injection, and a small minority required overnight observation in a hospital. There were no deaths associated with anaphylaxis. There have been no reported associations with some of the more serious reactions seen with pre-existing vaccines, such as Bell's palsy, transverse myelitis, thrombosis or Guillan-Barre syndrome.

For the Johnson & Johnson vaccines, besides the usual injection site reactions, there is a very small, but real risk of thrombosis, about 3 per million in the general population, but as high as 12 per million in women of reproductive age. I don't have the exact numbers, but I think there were at least two deaths associated with cerebral venous thrombosis, and although the condition was likely triggered by the vaccine, the deaths themselves were caused by using the wrong treatment (heparin).

So, nobody ever claimed these vaccines were completely without side effects (few vaccines are), but other than some very rare adverse reactions, the vaccines are extremely safe, particularly the mRNA vaccines. And the numbers affected are several orders of magnitude less than what we have seen from COVID, both in deaths and in long-term morbidity, the latter of which does not closely correlate to underlying health conditions.

Finally, and this has been stated again and again on this website, but because you brought it up, I'll state it again. The "we don't know the long-term side effects of the vaccines" is a canard. Out of every vaccine previously developed, the longest latency we've seen for the appearance of a side effect that can be reasonably tied to a vaccine is about 6 weeks. This represents the outer limit to how long Guillan-Barre syndrome might appear following influenza or meningococcus vaccination, and the risk of this reaction is about 1 per million or less. There really isn't a feasible biochemical mechanism for a vaccine to suddenly trigger a reaction months or years later. If a vaccine does trigger an auto-immune reaction, this occurs within days to weeks, not months to years. We now have over a year of trial data on the COVID vaccines, and 6 months of real-world experience, plus over a century of vaccine research in general "Long-term side effects", unless they're part of the sequelae of an acute reaction, really aren't something that exists with vaccines.
I appreciate and applaud the thoroughness of your responses. One last question for you: how do you explain the 4000+ VAERS reports? It seems illogical to assume they are all due to other conditions or fraudulent entries.
 

danlb_2000

Well-Known Member
I appreciate and applaud the thoroughness of your responses. One last question for you: how do you explain the 4000+ VAERS reports? It seems illogical to assume they are all due to other conditions or fraudulent entries.

It is statistically plausible that these are coincidental. So far there have been 275 million doses administered in the US. In 2019, an average of 7800 people died every day of all cause. The 4000 reported deaths were over 140 days so that about 28 per day.

All these deaths are reviewed to see if there is causation, and no links have been found to the vaccine.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
I appreciate and applaud the thoroughness of your responses. One last question for you: how do you explain the 4000+ VAERS reports? It seems illogical to assume they are all due to other conditions or fraudulent entries.
The CDC answers this exact question:


VAERS is a system of voluntary reporting, but each individual case is reviewed. Consider that in the US alone, close to 273 million doses of the vaccine have been given, with just under 200 million people receiving at least one dose. This is over a 6 month period, and the numbers skew heavily towards the elderly. There are about 4,647 deaths reported at some point after the vaccination (this is all self-reporting, so the death could have occurred immediately or anytime after the vaccination). Those 4,647 are merely reported deaths, this does not imply causality to the vaccine (probably only the investigators have full access to the medical records to make this determination). But the only reported concern raised by the CDC was for the before-mentioned thrombosis risk from the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Plus, 4,647 deaths from any cause out of a group of 200 million that skews elderly over a 6 month period really isn't excessive. It actually appears surprisingly low.

At some point, after due diligence is done by qualified professionals who work for a non-partisan government agency, you either need to trust them at their word, or do your own independent review (do you sufficient training to interpret medical records?) and come up with a better explanation. As a medical provider, I trust the professionalism of the CDC to make the best assessment possible given the data they work with. These aren't faceless bureaucrats or political hacks (despite what a certain recent leader tried to do to the organization), these are my peers and colleagues. I see that the well-establish protocols are being followed, and I trust that their judgements are made in good faith.
 

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