Could Disney face another hostile takeover attempt?

[Disney Irish]

A person can be entitled to an opinion, but not to their own facts. Also, whatever happened to Bob Iger being on Newsom's task force? I haven't really heard anything about it lately (not since May or so).

Also, while Disney Plus has been doing well enough, I keep reading about how it will be a few years or so before it becomes profitable.

I'm going to echo what Lazyboy said, just because someone claims something as fact doesn't mean it actually is a fact.

Also again echoing what Lazyboy said, a company can survive and not be profitable. I mean just look at a company like Amazon that went years without showing profit, and look at them now they are one of the titans of the internet. And that is a whole company, not just a division of a company like Disney Plus is. Also I would guess that Disney Plus is tracking ahead of its profitability calendar.

 

[Lilofan]

I'm going to echo what Lazyboy said, just because someone claims something as fact doesn't mean it actually is a fact.

Also again echoing what Lazyboy said, a company can survive and not be profitable. I mean just look at a company like Amazon that went years without showing profit, and look at them now they are one of the titans of the internet. And that is a whole company, not just a division of a company like Disney Plus is. Also I would guess that Disney Plus is tracking ahead of its profitability calendar.

Shareholders that Iger and Chapek answer to will never accept years without showing a profit. TWDC is held to a higher standard

 

[Disney Irish]

After reading this Wall Street article I would beg to differ.

We'll see.

Shareholders that Iger and Chapek answer to will never accept years without showing a profit.

You obviously missed the whole context of the conversation. We're talking about D+, not the entire company.

 

[mharrington]

Can we all agree that the OP is hoping (at least anyway) someone will come in and buy the parks from Disney?

No, I'm having just the opposite hope, that the parks won't be bought from Disney.

 

[mharrington]

We'll see.

That doesn't sound very assuring.

 

[Slpy3270]

‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic

Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]

deadline.com

At this rate I don't think Iger and Chapek grasp the very difficult decisions they will have to make in the decade. The idea that "it'll be 'just' a few rough quarters" and that "they'll bounce back to normal once this is over" is becoming increasingly flawed in logic.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic

Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]

deadline.com

At this rate I don't think Iger and Chapek grasp the very difficult decisions they will have to make in the decade. The idea that "it'll be 'just' a few rough quarters" and that "they'll bounce back to normal once this is over" is becoming increasingly flawed in logic.

It'll depend on the next 6-12 months. If things are getting back to relative normality in early-mid 2021 then it won't be too bad. If however its longer than any guess you, I, or anyone else could have made is thrown out the window.

 

[Disney Irish]

That doesn't sound very assuring.

I'm a little more optimistic than some around here.

 

[tirian]

No, I'm having just the opposite hope, that the parks won't be bought from Disney.

No, that’s not going to happen. Years ago, Iger’s initial plan was based on his personal lack of interest in theme parks, not on any business decision. Now the parks are far too valuable.

 

[mharrington]

No, that’s not going to happen. Years ago, Iger’s initial plan was based on his personal lack of interest in theme parks, not on any business decision. Now the parks are far too valuable.

If the parks are valuable, wouldn't that make them more attractive to a potential buyer, not less?

Also, the perpetual cancellation of "Mulan" is telling. It tells that the picture that the situation paints will be very grim indeed as the quartely meeting this August. I doubt either Bob Iger or Bob Chapek can (nor should) sugarcoat this.

And what of "Soul", "Raya" or the "Jungle Cruise" movie? Are they perpetually canceled, too?

 

[tirian]

If the parks are valuable, wouldn't that make them more attractive to a potential buyer, not less?

Also, the perpetual cancellation of "Mulan" is telling. It tells that the picture that the situation paints will be very grim indeed as the quartely meeting this August. I doubt either Bob Iger or Bob Chapek can (nor should) sugarcoat this.

And what of "Soul", "Raya" or the "Jungle Cruise" movie? Are they perpetually canceled, too?

Problem is, as Iger overpaid for IPs to compensate for the fact he’s not Steve Jobs, the parks bankrolled Iger’s spending spree. Now Chapek and Co. can’t afford to get away from them, as further evidenced by the delayed movie schedule.

 

[mharrington]

Problem is, as Iger overpaid for IPs to compensate for the fact he’s not Steve Jobs, the parks bankrolled Iger’s spending spree. Now Chapek and Co. can’t afford to get away from them, as further evidenced by the delayed movie schedule.

So does that mean that the parks in particular are vulnerable precisely because they are valuable? I believe something like that happened was what caused (in part at least) the company to be threatened with a hostile takeover attempt back in 1984. As David Koenig said, "The company was worth a lot of money, but it wasn't making a lot of money." Being worth money and making money are two different things.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Problem is, as Iger overpaid for IPs to compensate for the fact he’s not Steve Jobs, the parks bankrolled Iger’s spending spree. Now Chapek and Co. can’t afford to get away from them, as further evidenced by the delayed movie schedule.

Iger is not Steve Jobs but Kevin Feige is and Jon Favreau might be. Marvel was a steal, Star Wars was always going to be a home run at the box office (despite whatever you want to say about creative challenges). The Mandalorian has been the single biggest key to the early success of Disney+.

Not sure what you're basing "Iger overpaid for IP" on.

 

[Disney Irish]

So does that mean that the parks in particular are vulnerable precisely because they are valuable? I believe something like that happened was what caused (in part at least) the company to be threatened with a hostile takeover attempt back in 1984. As David Koenig said, "The company was worth a lot of money, but it wasn't making a lot of money." Being worth money and making money are two different things.

I swear you take things too literal sometimes.

2019 was literally one of Disney's most profitable years, if not THE most profitable. Prior to COVID Disney was one of the most profitable media conglomerates on the planet, again if not THE most profitable. Disney had been basically printing money with the Parks for years prior to COVID. So there is no reason to think they can't again. Is this a rough period, yes 100% absolutely. But the only way Disney gets taken over or the Parks go to someone else is if Disney themselves initiates it. As has been said many times in this thread there is really not many companies with deep enough pockets to buy all of the assets of Disney, nor is Disney willing to just hand over the Parks cheaply.

So again no, there likely isn't a scenario at this point in time where Disney is taken over or Disney sells the domestic Parks. And again this isn't 1984, so basically stop trying to compare the time periods.

 

[mharrington]

I swear you take things too literal sometimes.

You're right, I do tend to take things literally. I can't help it. That's just how I think sometimes.

2019 was literally one of Disney's most profitable years, if not THE most profitable. Prior to COVID Disney was one of the most profitable media conglomerates on the planet, again if not THE most profitable. Disney had been basically printing money with the Parks for years prior to COVID. So there is no reason to think they can't again. Is this a rough period, yes 100% absolutely. But the only way Disney gets taken over or the Parks go to someone else is if Disney themselves initiates it. As has been said many times in this thread there is really not many companies with deep enough pockets to buy all of the assets of Disney, nor is Disney willing to just hand over the Parks cheaply.

But we must also not forget the movie side of things. "Mulan" has been indefinitely postponed, and I have no idea what's going to happen with "Soul" (although chances are, it too will be postponed yet (it was supposed to come out in June, but has since been pushed back to November)).

And we must also not forget that chances are, the powers that be will paint a grim picture of the company's state come the quarterly meeting this August.

 

[Disney Irish]

But we must also not forget the movie side of things. "Mulan" has been indefinitely postponed, and I have no idea what's going to happen with "Soul" (although chances are, it too will be postponed yet (it was supposed to come out in June, but has since been pushed back to November)).

But this isn't unique to just Disney, it affects ALL Studios. All Studios have moved their release schedule. So I don't know what your point is.

And we must also not forget that chances are, the powers that be will paint a grim picture of the company's state come the quarterly meeting this August.

Who are these "powers that be" you refer to? The only people who matter in terms of the state of the company are Iger and Chapek. And I'm not 100% convinced yet that its going to be as grim and bleak as some predict. Sure it'll be rough but its not going to be the "sky is falling" time yet. There is a long road ahead and its still early days. If Iger and Chapek are already waving the white flag then all hope is lost that the company will even last until the end of the year. I don't think that is even the case, so lets not go there.

 

[mharrington]

But this isn't unique to just Disney, it affects ALL Studios. All Studios have moved their release schedule. So I don't know what your point is.

My point is, they won't be able to make their profit on anything. They seem unwilling to put their stuff out on streaming services. Not yet, anyway. Very slowly, the theaters seem to be reopening, but it seems also that the markets that seem to matter the most, California and New York, are remaining closed indefinitely until they can actually control the virus and keep it from spiking again. At least, that's my guess. And yet it's not going anywhere any time soon, I was told, which means the theaters won't reopen anytime soon - at least not in the areas where they matter most.

Who are these "powers that be" you refer to? The only people who matter in terms of the state of the company are Iger and Chapek.

Yes, the two Bobs are indeed who I meant by "the powers that be".

And I'm not 100% convinced yet that its going to be as grim and bleak as some predict. Sure it'll be rough but its not going to be the "sky is falling" time yet. There is a long road ahead and its still early days. If Iger and Chapek are already waving the white flag then all hope is lost that the company will even last until the end of the year. I don't think that is even the case, so lets not go there.

Well, I have no idea what's going to happen at the upcoming meeting this August - and frankly, I'd rather not know too much. All I know is that based on the comments made here and elsewhere, whatever happens will most likely not be pretty.

 

[Disney Irish]

My point is, they won't be able to make their profit on anything. They seem unwilling to put their stuff out on streaming services. Not yet, anyway. Very slowly, the theaters seem to be reopening, but it seems also that the markets that seem to matter the most, California and New York, are remaining closed indefinitely until they can actually control the virus. And yet it's not going anywhere any time, I was told, which means the theaters won't reopen anytime soon - at least not in the areas where they matter most.

I know that we in California and New York like to think we're the center of the world, but we're not. While yes both hold a large majority of the movie going public in the US, they aren't the only ones. Theater chains right now, and Studios right along with them, would love to have new movies playing in any region, including outside the US. Its a waiting game to see if things can open in CA and NY before they just have to bite the bullet and release them staggered in different regions. You're already seeing theater chains asking for this to happen:

Movie theaters implore studios: Release the blockbusters

Hollywood has now gone more than four months without a major theatrical release

abcnews.go.com

Also if things go any longer without a new release theater chains aren't going to be able last. Meaning that Disney and any other Studio won't have a choice but to release to either PVOD or Streaming.

Yes, the two Bobs are indeed who I meant by "the powers that be".

Then say that instead of being cryptic by saying "powers that be", just as easy to say "Iger and Chapek" or "the two Bobs".

Well, I have no idea what's going to happen at the upcoming meeting this August - and frankly, I'd rather not know too much. All I know is that based on the comments made here and elsewhere, whatever happens will most likely not be pretty.

Stop reading so much into what others here and some analysts say, those are opinions and sometimes not very good ones. Listen to what the company outlines in their earnings call. You can learn a lot from what is said during those calls.

 

[mharrington]

I know that we in California and New York like to think we're the center of the world, but we're not. While yes both hold a large majority of the movie going public in the US, they aren't the only ones. Theater chains right now, and Studios right along with them, would love to have new movies playing in any region, including outside the US. Its a waiting game to see if things can open in CA and NY before they just have to bite the bullet and release them staggered in different regions. You're already seeing theater chains asking for this to happen:

Movie theaters implore studios: Release the blockbusters

Hollywood has now gone more than four months without a major theatrical release

abcnews.go.com

Also if things go any longer without a new release theater chains aren't going to be able last. Meaning that Disney and any other Studio won't have a choice but to release to either PVOD or Streaming.

The problem is that CA and NY are the primary markets for movies, which you yourself just said. Certainly, those are the places where they usually release movies first before they release them anywhere else.

Then say that instead of being cryptic by saying "powers that be", just as easy to say "Iger and Chapek" or "the two Bobs".

I used "the powers that be" because Disney is more than just "the two Bobs", I believe.

Stop reading so much into what others here and some analysts say, those are opinions and sometimes not very good ones. Listen to what the company outlines in their earnings call. You can learn a lot from what is said during those calls.

Don't what the analysts say have any merit to them, even a small bit?

 

[Disney Irish]

The problem is that CA and NY are the primary markets for movies, which you yourself just said. Certainly, those are the places where they usually release movies first before they release them anywhere else.

That glosses over the many other regions. Did you even read the article I posted? Theaters are specifically asking Studios to release films. The next few weeks are going to be critical in this discussion. Studios are going to be forced to make a decision, either release films to theaters staggered to different regions over time (just like the old days) or release to PVOD and Streaming.

I used "the powers that be" because Disney is more than just "the two Bobs", I believe.

Nope, the two Bob's are the final decision makers.

Don't what the analysts say have any merit to them, even a small bit?

Depends on if you believe the analysts have some inside information versus just making an educated guess on the potential future. I for one don't hold any analyst to higher regard than any other person. They are prone to misinterpreted information and mistakes just like anyone else.