Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

Then why haven't we heard about a new version that works better against the Delta variant?

Pfizer and others are on trials with a delta specific booster. But with the wild-specific (ie original) booster in its Phase 3 trial showing in the high 90s effectiveness in a delta real world environment, there is less justification in pushing the delta specific version through the approval pipeline.

 

[GoofGoof]

Then why haven't we heard about a new version that works better against the Delta variant?

The current vaccines work well against the delta variant. The efficacy is still very high even against mild to moderate infection. If a doomsday scenario occurs and a mutation happens that is actually vaccine resistant then they can and will build a new vaccine that works against it.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If a doomsday scenario occurs and a mutation happens that is actually vaccine resistant then they can and will build a new vaccine that works against it.

Not necessarily.

 

[drizgirl]

Pfizer and others are on trials with a delta soecific booster. But with the wild-specific (ie original) booster in its Phase 3 trial showing in the high 99s effectiveness in a delta real workd environment, there is less justification in pushing the delta specific version through the approval pipeline.

The current vaccines work well against the delta variant. The efficacy is still very high even against mild to moderate infection. If a doomsday scenario occurs and a mutation happens that is actually vaccine resistant then they can and will build a new vaccine that works against it.

Then why so many breakthrough cases?

 

[Disney Experience]

Then why so many breakthrough cases?

The booster reduces the breakthrough cases compared to not having the booster. So there will always be a chance of breakthrough cases but less with booster. Especially as effectiveness of vaccine wanes over time.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Then why so many breakthrough cases?

Stop asking questions. The vaccines are perfect and will solve all of our problems.

 

[DisneyFan32]

The current vaccines work well against the delta variant. The efficacy is still very high even against mild to moderate infection. If a doomsday scenario occurs and a mutation happens that is actually vaccine resistant then they can and will build a new vaccine that works against it.

I'm scared about a doomsday scenario, I hope it's not gonna happen at all this year or next year, I don't want to start over again, I don't want new variants will get worse than Delta as unvaccinated people will not get vaccinated at all.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I think that’s one of the main arguments for getting everyone vaccinated as fast as possible. It’s why we can’t wait for people to decide on their own. I know this wasn’t possible, but in theory if everyone in India had been vaccinated there would be no delta variant. That mutation occurred in India because the virus was spreading unchecked. That’s not a knock on India or the Indian people, it could have been FL or the UK or some other place. The longer we let the virus spread unchecked the more likely a mutation is to occur and the more likely we get another variant that is even worse than delta.

As far as a mutation that becomes vaccine resistant, so far that hasn’t happened. Some of the variants have reduced the efficacy of the vaccines but they aren’t resistant. As others have pointed out, it’s possible and likely to build a new vaccine based on whatever mutations happen. I think that’s why it’s probably inevitable that we all end up with at least one round of boosters and maybe more and it also makes this whole ”recognize natural immunity” narrative pointless. If you got infected you will still need a vaccine at some point.

Biden Plans Covid Summit to Aid Global Vaccine Distribution

MSN

 

[GoofGoof]

Then why so many breakthrough cases?

Efficacy was never 100%. The vast majority of cases are still in unvaccinated people. We see posts regularly here where Orange County shows 90%+ of new cases in unvaccinated. My county released their stats for the last 2 weeks and 94% of new cases are in unvaccinated people.

The more cases there are overall, the more breakthrough infections you have. So if a vaccine has 88% efficacy and there are 150,000 new cases a day 135,000 will be in unvaccinated people and 15,000 will be in fully vaccinated. That’s a lot of breakthrough infections but it doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t work. If we got back down to 15,000 cases a day there would only be 1,500 breakthrough infections. The recent narrative that the vaccines don’t stop infection is just something being pushed by people who don’t want vaccine mandates. The efficacy is still strong and as it fades over time a booster will push it right back up to where it’s always been. That’s especially true for the elderly and people whose immune system doesn’t work as well.

 

[Lilofan]

Then why so many breakthrough cases?

35K breakthrough cases in 173 million people that have been vaccinated. Many?

 

[GoofGoof]

Stop asking questions. The vaccines are perfect and will solve all of our problems.

It was a pretty basic question with a pretty simple answer based solely in math. Math doesn’t follow politics or talking heads. The efficacy of these vaccines was never 100% and will never be 100%.

 

[ArmoredRodent]

I often find it useful to go to the companies' own websites to find specific information on all these questions from the people who actually know the product best (though they obviously have a financial interest as well). Since I have had the Moderna shot, I follow the Moderna studies, which are explained in reasonably clear terms on their investor site. For example, their most recent summary includes a number of recent studies and results:

Moderna Highlights New Clinical Data on its COVID-19 Vaccine | Moderna, Inc.

mRNA-1273 remains highly effective against COVID-19 in real-world effectiveness study during surge in Delta cases New analysis of open-label portion of Phase 3 COVE study shows lower risk of breakthrough infection in participants vaccinated more recently (median 8 months after first dose) than

investors.modernatx.com

And their booster submission includes a lot of information relevant to what people are asking about, such as this line about the original Moderna vaccine's effectiveness against various new variants: "An additional analysis showed that a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level induced robust antibody responses and significantly increased geometric mean titers (GMT) for all variants of concern including Beta (B.1.351) by 32- fold, Gamma (P.1) by 43.6-fold and Delta (B.1.617.2) by 42.3-fold."

IOW, boosters of the original Moderna vaccine at 1/2 the original dosage increased "robust antibody responses" against Delta by 42 times over what the antibody level was before. That's why they say they don't need the full dosage.

 

[DisneyFan32]

It was a pretty basic question with a pretty simple answer based solely in math. Math doesn’t follow politics or talking heads. The efficacy of these vaccines was never 100% and will never be 100%.

Then new variants will ending vaccines if vaccines was never be 100%. It's doomsday scenario time for us.

 

[correcaminos]

How were your side effects after the 3rd shot?

Since you're asking for those with 3rd, mine was like the 1st.

Pfizer and others are on trials with a delta soecific booster. But with the wild-specific (ie original) booster in its Phase 3 trial showing in the high 90s effectiveness in a delta real workd environment, there is less justification in pushing the delta specific version through the approval pipeline.

I've been slammed lately, where did you see results for booster trials (non-delta specific)? I've only had my shot 2 months now and hadn't seen anything yet

 

[SteveAZee]

4.5 Million have died from COVID-19... so far.

If we go through this again and again with new variants and vaccine denial, how could it not be tens of millions?

The variants we'll care about are the ones that are more contagious, more deadly... so one might expect the next variant or three to be capable of killing tens of millions without a sufficient vaccine response.

 

[DisneyFan32]

The variants we'll care about are the ones that are more contagious, more deadly... so one might expect the next variant or three to be capable of killing tens of millions without a sufficient vaccine response.

And then the world might ending very soon by next year if all millions people are died from COVID-19 as the people who vaccinated will be died too as new variant is more deadly causes end of the world as we know it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Then new variants will ending vaccines if vaccines was never be 100%. It's doomsday scenario time for us.

The vaccine doesn‘t need 100% efficacy to work. The MMR vaccine does not have 100% efficacy but because 90%+ of the population has gotten it measles has been eliminated in the US. We don’t have community spread of measles and when cases pop up they are quickly isolated. Measles is a highly contagious virus, even more so than Covid.

There are 3 variables at play: how contagious the virus is, how effective the vaccine is and how many people take the vaccine. If the virus is mildly contagious and you have a highly effective vaccine it’s possible you don‘t need as many people vaccinated to slow or end the community spread. That was what we all hoped for with he original version of covid. With a vaccine that’s at 90%+ efficacy we were hoping that 60% vaccinated could be enough. Delta changed that. The virus became more contagious and so we need more people vaccinated.

There is a narrative out there that we can never reach herd immunity with covid. That’s mathematically not true. If 100% of people were vaccinated we would definitely hit herd immunity. The reason the story evolved into herd immunity would not be achievable wasn’t because it’s not achievable at all but because public health experts didn’t believe we would ever reach a high enough percent of people vaccinated.

For anyone who cares. Measles has an R0 between 12 and 18 while the delta variant of covid is estimated to be between 5 and 9.5. So measles is still about twice as contagious as delta covid but has been eliminated in the US because 90%+ of the population is vaccinated with a high efficacy vaccine. Vaccines work and the covid vaccine is our best way out of this pandemic.

This Is How Contagious Chickenpox, Measles Are

The R0 number gives an idea for how quickly a particular infectious pathogen will spread through a given population.

www.newsweek.com

 

[DCBaker]

"Florida on Saturday reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 9,806 more COVID-19 cases and eight deaths, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data."

"In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 363 deaths and 10,971 cases per day, according to Herald calculations of CDC data. The 363 deaths, reported Friday by the state, tie with Florida’s second-highest seven-day death average per day when tallying deaths by the date when they were reported. The highest number of deaths occurred on Sept. 4, with a seven-day average of 373 deaths per day."

"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Saturday report showed there were 9,393 COVID-19 patients reported from 257 Florida hospitals.

That’s 192 fewer patients than Friday’s report from 253 hospitals. In Saturday’s report, COVID-19 patients occupied 16.11% of all inpatient hospital beds, compared with 16.51% in the previous day’s reporting hospitals.

This number is based on 257 hospitals reporting 9,393 inpatient beds in use for COVID-19 patients and 58,321 total inpatient beds.

Of the people hospitalized in Florida, 2,381 people were in intensive-care units, a decrease of 62 from the previous day’s report, Herald analyses show. That represents 36.57% of the ICU beds at the 257 hospitals reporting data, compared to 37.71% the previous day.

This number is based on 257 hospitals reporting 2,381 ICU beds in use for COVID-19 patients and 6,510 total ICU beds."

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254342043.html

 

[Disney Analyst]

The vaccine doesn‘t need 100% efficacy to work. The MMR vaccine does not have 100% efficacy but because 90%+ of the population has gotten it measles has been eliminated in the US. We don’t have community spread of measles and when cases pop up they are quickly isolated. Measles is a highly contagious virus, even more so than Covid.

There are 3 variables at play: how contagious the virus is, how effective the vaccine is and how many people take the vaccine. If the virus is mildly contagious and you have a highly effective vaccine it’s possible you don‘t need as many people vaccinated to slow or end the community spread. That was what we all hoped for with he original version of covid. With a vaccine that’s at 90%+ efficacy we were hoping that 60% vaccinated could be enough. Delta changed that. The virus became more contagious and so we need more people vaccinated.

There is a narrative out there that we can never reach herd immunity with covid. That’s mathematically not true. If 100% of people were vaccinated we would definitely hit herd immunity. The reason the story evolved into herd immunity would not be achievable wasn’t because it’s not achievable at all but because public health experts didn’t believe we would ever reach a high enough percent of people vaccinated.

For anyone who cares. Measles has an R0 between 12 and 18 while the delta variant of covid is estimated to be between 5 and 9.5. So measles is still about twice as contagious as delta covid but has been eliminated in the US because 90%+ of the population is vaccinated with a high efficacy vaccine. Vaccines work and the covid vaccine is our best way out of this pandemic.

This Is How Contagious Chickenpox, Measles Are

The R0 number gives an idea for how quickly a particular infectious pathogen will spread through a given population.

www.newsweek.com

It’s really shameful how people have weaponized and politicized Covid, masks, and vaccines.

History will look back on this time, at us, not kindly.

They see breakthrough cases, throw their hands up and shout “see it doesn’t work, not taking that evil vaccine”.

It’s just ridiculous.

 

[Nubs70]

I think that’s one of the main arguments for getting everyone vaccinated as fast as possible. It’s why we can’t wait for people to decide on their own. I know this wasn’t possible, but in theory if everyone in India had been vaccinated there would be no delta variant. That mutation occurred in India because the virus was spreading unchecked. That’s not a knock on India or the Indian people, it could have been FL or the UK or some other place. The longer we let the virus spread unchecked the more likely a mutation is to occur and the more likely we get another variant that is even worse than delta.

As far as a mutation that becomes vaccine resistant, so far that hasn’t happened. Some of the variants have reduced the efficacy of the vaccines but they aren’t resistant. As others have pointed out, it’s possible and likely to build a new vaccine based on whatever mutations happen. I think that’s why it’s probably inevitable that we all end up with at least one round of boosters and maybe more and it also makes this whole ”recognize natural immunity” narrative pointless. If you got infected you will still need a vaccine at some point.

Is the evolution of variants the result of:
1. Existence of an unvaccinated pool?
2. Selective mechanism in the vaccinated?

Are we seeing variants evolving within the vaccinated then propigated within the unvaccinated?