Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[GoofGoof]

I guess "current measures" depends on where you are. I don't think indoor social distancing is drastic. I don't think enhanced sanitizing procedures are drastic. I don't think face covering requirements are drastic (although I personally don't think they do much).

So I put my hypothetical question back to you. If an effective vaccine isn't available until 2024, do you support forced business closures, indoor capacity restrictions beyond 6 ft social distancing and outdoor capacity restrictions for another four years?

Ok. Sorry for the back and forth on this, but several people were accusing me of not understanding your position and putting words in your mouth. I just wanted to know if that was the case because I was pretty sure I knew where you were coming from. Outside of defining “current measures” my description of your position was fairly accurate.

As far as your question I’m not seeing anywhere outside of maybe NYC where you can argue a large number of businesses are forced to be closed today. The stay at home orders are all expired at this point. I support mask requirements, social distancing, indoor capacity limits, limits on large group gatherings. If we did all of that in conjunction with more contact tracing and testing that’s the best path to having the majority of the economy open. If in your worst case scenario the vaccines fail and the virus lingers for 4 years I believe most of these restrictions should/will continue. Improvements in testing and tracing will be the only way to relax some restrictions. We are seeing that now with plans for airlines and cruise ships doing quick tests. I would assume that the longer this carries on the more of that we will see. I don’t see the country just removing all restrictions and letting the virus rip while isolating the elderly.

On to the concept of removing all restrictions and just isolating the elderly because they represent the majority of deaths. How would that work exactly? So businesses are open but if you are over a certain age (55? 65?) you are refused service? Putting aside for a minute the high risk people that are not elderly you are essentially saying isolate the elderly so the country can fully open for everyone else who are unlikely to die if infected. So older Americans are supposed to just stay locked in their houses? What if they still need to work or provide child care for their grand children? How would they eat? Someone could deliver groceries to them but they wouldn’t be able to go to stores and shop for themselves. What about doctors appointments? If there are no restrictions and the elderly are supposed to be isolated how do they see doctors or go to a hospital? On the quality of life side isolating the elderly means they can’t do much of anything. In the last few pages alone there have been multiple posts with anecdotal stories about people over 70 who don’t want to be stuck with their lives limited by Covid. Your plan essentially limits them from shopping, eating out, visiting family and friends, going to WDW. That’s a lot to ask to keep bars fully open, bring full crowds back to sports and lift indoor dining capacity limits.

IMHO we don’t need to isolate the elderly if we can make it safer for everyone to be out in public and also reduce the total number of infections so they are less likely to get sick. We do that by wearing masks, social distancing, limiting large group gatherings, limiting indoor dining capacity and only allow bars to be open if people are seated at a table. For older Americans, especially those with health issues it is better to avoid unnecessary exposure but I don’t think it’s practical to make that the only plan. The vast majority of the economy can stay open under the restrictions I laid out. Some bars/clubs will suffer, some restaurants too. Over the long term that’s a much more practical way to handle this situation vs just isolating all of the elderly and letting the virus rip.

 

[SamusAranX]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/feared-covid-outbreaks-in-schools-yet-to-arrive-early-data-shows/2020/09/23/0509bb84-fd22-11ea-b555-4d71a9254f4b_story.html

More [early] positive news regarding schools

 

[Kevin_W]

Which parts of the country are not good with compliance? Do you have some additional information

We talked about this many pages ago, but in early August I went to Jackson hole/Tetons/Yellowstone. In Jackson Hole, compliance was very good. In West Yellowstone, it was extremely poor. From my brief experience, if does not surprise me that Montana/Idaho have had surging case rates.

 

[danlb_2000]

Ok. Sorry for the back and forth on this, but several people were accusing me of not understanding your position and putting words in your mouth. I just wanted to know if that was the case because I was pretty sure I knew where you were coming from. Outside of defining “current measures” my description of your position was fairly accurate.

As far as your question I’m not seeing anywhere outside of maybe NYC where you can argue a large number of businesses are forced to be closed today. The stay at home orders are all expired at this point. I support mask requirements, social distancing, indoor capacity limits, limits on large group gatherings. If we did all of that in conjunction with more contact tracing and testing that’s the best path to having the majority of the economy open. If in your worst case scenario the vaccines fail and the virus lingers for 4 years I believe most of these restrictions should/will continue. Improvements in testing and tracing will be the only way to relax some restrictions. We are seeing that now with plans for airlines and cruise ships doing quick tests. I would assume that the longer this carries on the more of that we will see. I don’t see the country just removing all restrictions and letting the virus rip while isolating the elderly.

On to the concept of removing all restrictions and just isolating the elderly because they represent the majority of deaths. How would that work exactly? So businesses are open but if you are over a certain age (55? 65?) you are refused service? Putting aside for a minute the high risk people that are not elderly you are essentially saying isolate the elderly so the country can fully open for everyone else who are unlikely to die if infected. So older Americans are supposed to just stay locked in their houses? What if they still need to work or provide child care for their grand children? How would they eat? Someone could deliver groceries to them but they wouldn’t be able to go to stores and shop for themselves. What about doctors appointments? If there are no restrictions and the elderly are supposed to be isolated how do they see doctors or go to a hospital? On the quality of life side isolating the elderly means they can’t do much of anything. In the last few pages alone there have been multiple posts with anecdotal stories about people over 70 who don’t want to be stuck with their lives limited by Covid. Your plan essentially limits them from shopping, eating out, visiting family and friends, going to WDW. That’s a lot to ask to keep bars fully open, bring full crowds back to sports and lift indoor dining capacity limits.

IMHO we don’t need to isolate the elderly if we can make it safer for everyone to be out in public and also reduce the total number of infections so they are less likely to get sick. We do that by wearing masks, social distancing, limiting large group gatherings, limiting indoor dining capacity and only allow bars to be open if people are seated at a table. For older Americans, especially those with health issues it is better to avoid unnecessary exposure but I don’t think it’s practical to make that the only plan. The vast majority of the economy can stay open under the restrictions I laid out. Some bars/clubs will suffer, some restaurants too. Over the long term that’s a much more practical way to handle this situation vs just isolating all of the elderly and letting the virus rip.

I would give this two likes if I could.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I also believe keeping kids from going to school in person is drastic and has a detrimental effect on people who now can't work because their kids are home.

Well there is no national law that requires kids stay at home... are you wanting a national law that says they must go to school right now?

 

[danlb_2000]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/feared-covid-outbreaks-in-schools-yet-to-arrive-early-data-shows/2020/09/23/0509bb84-fd22-11ea-b555-4d71a9254f4b_story.html

More [early] positive news regarding schools

Interesting that the article says " but public health experts have found little evidence that the virus is spreading inside buildings,", but if you Google "outbreaks in schools" you will see articles says 27 in Michigan, 11 in NJ, 39 in Colorado. Yes, things appear to be going better then some feared, but it doesn't seem accurate to say that its not spreading in schools.

 

[danlb_2000]

The measures I call drastic are any that involve forced closures of businesses or indoor capacity restrictions that go beyond what is required for 6 foot social distancing. I also think that any restrictions on outdoor activities are drastic (if you want to require masks outdoors if there isn't social distancing for things like sports or concerts, I'm fine with that). I also believe keeping kids from going to school in person is drastic and has a detrimental effect on people who now can't work because their kids are home.

A lot of things related to the virus are going to be a choice between one set of detrimental effects and another. There are no easy solutions to the problem.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Interesting that the article says " but public health experts have found little evidence that the virus is spreading inside buildings,", but if you Google "outbreaks in schools" you will see articles says 27 in Michigan, 11 in NJ, 39 in Colorado. Yes, things appear to be going better then some feared, but it doesn't seem accurate to say that its not spreading in schools.

They really need a better word. There are 11 school outbreaks in NJ, but three of them have a grand total of 8 cases. No county has more than 10 cases total linked to schools. Maybe outbreak doesn't mean what I think it means (Montoya, 1987), but 3, 3, and 2 cases doesn't fit my concept of the word.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well there is no national law that requires kids stay at home... are you wanting a national law that says they must go to school right now?

I would be happy if the federal government would allocate additional money to schools for additional staffing, cleaning and/or physical alterations to buildings, etc. A lot of schools don’t have the budget to make the changes needed to make things safe. If the federal government offered more funds to districts then it’s a take it or leave it scenario. If you don’t want to open your schools in your district than you don’t get the funds, but if you do want to open you get everything you need to make it as safe as possible. There’s no way the government can/should mandate schools must open.

 

[SamusAranX]

Interesting that the article says " but public health experts have found little evidence that the virus is spreading inside buildings,", but if you Google "outbreaks in schools" you will see articles says 27 in Michigan, 11 in NJ, 39 in Colorado. Yes, things appear to be going better then some feared, but it doesn't seem accurate to say that its not spreading in schools.

The students may be gathering on the outside socially. Which explains why they haven't found evidence inside the school. May also be on the buses?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Just thought I would share this. Here is an interesting world-wide map that allows you compare both national and regional case numbers for certain countries... so for example, if you wanted to compare Florida to, lets say, Bavaria, you can easily click to see the numbers:

Latest General Medicine News & Resources | Medscape UK

General Medicine - Access the latest medical news, clinical guidelines for primary care, general practice. Medical resources, conference reports and clinical summaries from the UK and around the world

www.univadis.co.uk

 

[olie64]

Interesting that the article says " but public health experts have found little evidence that the virus is spreading inside buildings,", but if you Google "outbreaks in schools" you will see articles says 27 in Michigan, 11 in NJ, 39 in Colorado. Yes, things appear to be going better then some feared, but it doesn't seem accurate to say that its not spreading in schools.

Indiana been open for 9 weeks now in school...we have def. had more then 39 schools with cases, but I about 100 percent say from being on that front line its not during school you need to worry about. It sports, and the fact they are and will continue to hang out on weeknights and weeks together.

 

[olie64]

The students may be gathering on the outside socially. Which explains why they haven't found evidence inside the school. May also be on the buses?

As some one with first hand knowledge of this...they are def. gather outside of school socially.

 

[GoofGoof]

The students may be gathering on the outside socially. Which explains why they haven't found evidence inside the school. May also be on the buses?

Yeah, buses are definitely a problem. My kid’s district is potentially going back in November but I am definitely not putting them on the bus if they go back.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Moderna, one of our best chances of a vaccine, says now that at the earliest to distribute if all goes well, March 2021.

Moderna CEO says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until spring of next year

Drugmaker's timeline deals a blow to Donald Trump's claim that a vaccine could be out before the November election.

www.google.com

 

[Kevin_W]

Yeah, buses are definitely a problem. My kid’s district is potentially going back in November but I am definitely not putting them on the bus if they go back.

I had that thought initially, but it turns out that my kid is on the bus for 7-8 minutes with a grand total of ~5 kids. So I feel pretty comfortable with it.

 

[Kevin_W]

Indiana been open for 9 weeks now in school...we have def. had more then 39 schools with cases, but I about 100 percent say from being on that front line its not during school you need to worry about. It sports, and the fact they are and will continue to hang out on weeknights and weeks together.

"Schools with cases" and "spreading in schools" are also very different things. There are also 2516 elementary and secondary schools in New Jersey. So 39 doesn't look like a huge number.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Moderna, one of our best chances of a vaccine, says now that at the earliest to distribute if all goes well, March 2021.

Moderna CEO says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until spring of next year

Drugmaker's timeline deals a blow to Donald Trump's claim that a vaccine could be out before the November election.

www.google.com

as expected.

 

[GoofGoof]

I had that thought initially, but it turns out that my kid is on the bus for 7-8 minutes with a grand total of ~5 kids. So I feel pretty comfortable with it.

I think if enough kids opt out of buses that is what will happen here too. In pre-Covid times the bus had kids 2 or 3 to a seat and my kids were on it for 20-30 mins each way. They affectionately call our bus the rolling asylum because you can hear the roar of kids before the bus even makes a turn onto the street and is in view. I worry they can really keep the kids in masks on there. It gets hot in the fall and spring. if they had 1 kid to a seat and less stops to make it would be much less of a concern.