Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[monothingie]

Models have been predicting what's happening now since late January. People just haven't known where to look.

Modeling isn't a bad thing, but you shouldn't put all your eggs in one model and declare it as the sole predictor of what will happen. Very often these models are not accurate and not good predictors of outcomes, especially if the data entered is wrong or incomplete.

Bill Gates and his team adressed this article:

"Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this."

 

[Kevin_W]

Bill Gates did a great AMA on Reddit today. Him and his team estimate that within 6-8 weeks any places that are "shut down" (his words for social distancing, minimal public gatherings, etc.) can begin to open back up. He did note a lot of this would hang on an increase in testing. Timeline of late-April for WDW if the rest of the USA complies?

Do you have a link? That would be an interesting read. Bill Gates is obviously intelligent and his long-time work on global health through his foundation should give him a pretty good perspective.

 

[DCBaker]

Do you have a link? That would be an interesting read. Bill Gates is obviously intelligent and his long-time work on global health through his foundation should give him a pretty good perspective.

 

[Kevin_W]

Imperial College in London recently came out with their study on Corona effects, which is the most comprehensive look into this to date. There are some quibbles people have (for example, China is not seeing a resurgence after strict lock-down measures), but this summary is by far the best I've found:



It breaks down three scenarios, including the "herd immunity" DisneyCane theory and two others.

Here's is then a good critique of the study which shows some good caveats to take into consideration.

Review of Ferguson et al "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions..." — New England Complex Systems Institute

necsi.edu

All in all, it's still a terrifying grim outlook.

Thanks for the links. As everyone says "trust the experts" those make for interesting reads. One group of undoubtedly smart experts saying one thing. Then another group that are also experts saying they are full of it.

 

[Andrew C]

Who else had Bill Gates' TED talk from 4 years ago about "not being ready for the next epidemic" pop up this week on their YouTube recommendations?

 

[asianway]

Everyone? They can’t- they need certain people. It costs too much to retrain people- why would they let go good and established employees? Have you heard something about them laying everyone off?

No that’s what I’d do. Place the Burden on the state for unemployment and then open the parks back up in a phased approach. MK then Studios, AK, Epcot last. Union recall rules would apply.

 

[A Noble Fish]

Who else had Bill Gates' TED talk from 4 years ago about "not being ready for the next epidemic" pop up this week on their YouTube recommendations?

Bill Gates has known the risks for a while, and he has been worried about COVID-19 for a while. Him truthfully talking about a study is good, but it's dangerous when people are using it to negate its impacts.

It's disappointing that people are trying to discredit one out many, many other models that have so far been proven 100% right, as there was no contrary evidence to discredit it. This may be an outlier but see the bigger picture. Use a range of information to get a better picture. This was never going to be like the sensationalized Ebola (remember that partisan nonsense?) Evidence is needed to discredit evidence. That's why I was able to actually understand the impact of this.

 

[Lilofan]

Fear is now in the eyes of law enforcement regarding coronavirus. In some cities, police no longer staff desks to answer peoples questions and in Arlington County, VA police will no longer respond in person to resident calls regarding phone harassment, vandalism and vehicle theft. One needs to report this type of activity, online.

 

[Jwink]

No that’s what I’d do. Place the Burden on the state for unemployment and then open the parks back up in a phased approach. MK then Studios, AK, Epcot last. Union recall rules would apply.

Unemployment maxes out at $275 a week here. It’s a joke. I don’t think that would do well for employee morale....

 

[Lirael]

I'm very curious about reinfection rates right now. I think after the brunt of the infection wave is passed, how quickly things go back to normal will depend on how easily people are getting reinfected. Disney operations included.

 

[Lilofan]

Unemployment maxes out at $275 a week here. It’s a joke. I don’t think that would do well for employee morale....

Millions of Americans are losing their jobs or being furloughed. One of them is a family member. There is NO shame in collecting unemployment regardless of one's financial position. That is no joke.

 

[GoofGoof]

About 100 years ago heading into the 1920s:

1. Infectious disease runs rampant
2. Stock market crashes
3. Bars are forced to shut down

They were right, history does repeat itself

 

[hopemax]

So did H1N1 "come alive" after the 2008-2009 Flu Shots were made shipped??? Or did Flu Shots fail like they did a year ago(no one I knew got Flu last year, that's just what the news said) H1N1 was all over the news in April, we went to WDW start of May(SO GLAD WE DID!!!!)no one got it. Even my Grandfather who had Luk., didn't pass till April 2010. I didn't have my usual summer, ICU for a week twice but that was over 2 months after WDW so I don't think I got anything from WDW or had H1N1.

No offense but Common Cold is Corona?!?!?!??! Is it a very different strain than what closed everything down?

Note: I am not a doctor, just someone who read things a few minutes ago on Wikipedia

H1N1 is still just a "classification header" under which there are many strains. The H1N1 refers to the quantities of antigens of two proteins, an "H" and a "N" (real names are long, and biological) present. The 2008 H1N1 was a brand new strain. So the flu shot was not constructed to fight that particular strain because it had never been seen before. Every year, they do modeling on what type of flu strains they think are going be active that year. Sometimes the models are right, sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes something brand new comes on the scene. 2008 was the last case - completely new. Last year, was the middle case - they guessed wrong.

Common cold is a coronavirus. Common cold is not COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses are classified by how they look under an electron microscope. That is what makes them "similar" not the way they spread, or how lethal they are ,etc. You've probably seen the picture of the grey ball, with the red tufts sticking out everywhere, they all look something similar to that. Although, it seems like they are all "respiratory" illnesses. I mention it, only because how we are all running around calling it "Coronavirus." In some later time, or some later place another Coronavirus is going to develop and people are going to freak out remembering this. But coronaviruses can run a whole gambit of seriousness. Apparently, there are 7 "categories" of human coronavirus. 4 are the ones we associate with the common cold, the other 3 are the serious ones SARS, MERS, and this.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

@rnese and @A Noble Fish ...take some advice from someone who was sucked into a huge debate that ended up being mostly a misunderstanding of terms...the arguing isn't worth it.

 

[jrhwdw]

Note: I am not a doctor, just someone who read things a few minutes ago on Wikipedia

H1N1 is still just a "classification header" under which there are many strains. The H1N1 refers to the quantities of antigens of two proteins, an "H" and a "N" (real names are long, and biological) present. The 2008 H1N1 was a brand new strain. So the flu shot was not constructed to fight that particular strain because it had never been seen before. Every year, they do modeling on what type of flu strains they think are going be active that year. Sometimes the models are right, sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes something brand new comes on the scene. 2008 was the last case - completely new. Last year, was the middle case - they guessed wrong.

Common cold is a coronavirus. Common cold is not COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses are classified by how they look under an electron microscope. That is what makes them "similar" not the way they spread, or how lethal they are ,etc. You've probably seen the picture of the grey ball, with the red tufts sticking out everywhere, they all look something similar to that. Although, it seems like they are all "respiratory" illnesses. I mention it, only because how we are all running around calling it "Coronavirus." In some later time, or some later place another Coronavirus is going to develop and people are going to freak out remembering this. But coronaviruses can run a whole gambit of seriousness. Apparently, there are 7 "categories" of human coronavirus. 4 are the ones we associate with the common cold, the other 3 are the serious ones SARS, MERS, and this.

Thanks!

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm very curious about reinfection rates right now. I think after the brunt of the infection wave is passed, how quickly things go back to normal will depend on how easily people are getting reinfected. Disney operations included.

So far China looks pretty good on that front. Only 1 new case yesterday in Wuhan. It’s really early but they lifted the quarantine and the spread didn’t pick back up. I’m not sure if that’s just herd immunity or if the lock down really did the trick.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Note: I am not a doctor, just someone who read things a few minutes ago on Wikipedia

H1N1 is still just a "classification header" under which there are many strains. The H1N1 refers to the quantities of antigens of two proteins, an "H" and a "N" (real names are long, and biological) present. The 2008 H1N1 was a brand new strain. So the flu shot was not constructed to fight that particular strain because it had never been seen before. Every year, they do modeling on what type of flu strains they think are going be active that year. Sometimes the models are right, sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes something brand new comes on the scene. 2008 was the last case - completely new. Last year, was the middle case - they guessed wrong.

Common cold is a coronavirus. Common cold is not COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses are classified by how they look under an electron microscope. That is what makes them "similar" not the way they spread, or how lethal they are ,etc. You've probably seen the picture of the grey ball, with the red tufts sticking out everywhere, they all look something similar to that. Although, it seems like they are all "respiratory" illnesses. I mention it, only because how we are all running around calling it "Coronavirus." In some later time, or some later place another Coronavirus is going to develop and people are going to freak out remembering this. But coronaviruses can run a whole gambit of seriousness. Apparently, there are 7 "categories" of human coronavirus. 4 are the ones we associate with the common cold, the other 3 are the serious ones SARS, MERS, and this.

This is why I try to use COVID-19 instead of just coronavirus.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Reading about Shanghai enforcing masks at Disney.... how come China and South Korea are enforcing masks, but in the USA we aren’t supposed to buy them?

 

[Mouse Trap]

So far China looks pretty good on that front. Only 1 new case yesterday in Wuhan. It’s really early but they lifted the quarantine and the spread didn’t pick back up. I’m not sure if that’s just herd immunity or if the lock down really did the trick.

They've done an excellent job testing and isolating anyone when it ticks back up. China fumbled big time in the beginning, but now they might become the model for the rest of the world to follow as well as South Korea.

If we follow their leads we could be done with this even faster, but so far we're moving painfully slow.

 

[techgeek]

Reading about Shanghai enforcing masks at Disney.... how come China and South Korea are enforcing masks, but in the USA we aren’t supposed to buy them?

By most counts, we had a lot more toilet paper than masks at the beginning of this... and look at where we are today. If they didn't discourage and pull masks from the market, we wouldn't have them for healthcare and first responders.