Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[pdude81]

Probably a dumb question...My family has reservations May 11-16. Should we cancel??? Is there any chance of Disney being open by then???

My non-insider predition is 0% chance of vacation. If DVC and you can bank points then cancel it. If CRO then wait til they cancel it and see what they offer you. Normally you can cancel penalty-free 5 days out.

 

[natatomic]

In thinking about the way this virus spreads, especially related to asymptomatic spread a couple of thoughts occurred to me. In Florida, Orange county has relatively fewer cases compared to similar sized counties (population wise) in southeast FL. Orange has about 0.6 cases per 1000 residents while Broward has 1.22 cases per 1000 residents and Palm Beach County has 0.83 cases per 1000. Osceola is about 0.79 but far less populated.

With all of the travel and crowded theme parks (Broward and Palm Beach don't have anything similar to WDW or Universal in that respect) and given the number of front line employees at those parks, I would expect a lot higher case density due to the way the travelers and crowds should have "seeded" the front line employees. Not to mention the locals that were in attendance as well.

Another place I looked at is Texas. Texas has the 13th lowest case density among US States and hasn't had a significant outbreak in the major metropolitan areas (only 10k cases total). The reason I was thinking about Texas is that both Dallas-Ft. Worth and Houston George Bush International are (were) very busy and crowded hub airports. Similar to front line employees at Orlando area theme parks, there are many front line employees at those airports but, more importantly many flight attendants are based in the Dallas and Houston metropolitan areas. Each flight attendant comes into close contact with 40-50 passengers on each flight. I would have expected similar community "seeding" from these flight attendants.

The initial guidance from the experts was that the primary way the virus spread was through prolonged, close contact with an infected person or through surface contamination and transfer. Now there are all kinds of suggestions of widespread transmission by asymptomatic patients simply talking to people.

The examples of the Orlando, Dallas and Houston metropolitan areas lead me to believe that whether asymptomatic or symptomatic, transmission requires prolonged, close contact or surface contamination. If brief interactions with patients who didn't cough or sneeze during the interaction were highly contagious, I would expect front line theme park employees and airline flight attendants to be infected at a very high rate. The current data of outbreak geographic areas suggests otherwise.

I'm not saying the virus isn't more contagious than things like the flu. However, the picture being presented by some is that it spreads like wildfire if you are briefly close to an infected person, no matter if they are symptomatic or asymptomatic.

The worst outbreak in the country, by far is centered around the New York City metropolitan area. This area is both very densely populated AND has high usage mass transit where people are packed together for a prolonged period and touch a lot of surfaces.

California didn't get nearly as bad as New York despite the congested metropolitan areas. Maybe some of the differences between California and New York would provide some insight into how it spreads. While California locked down a few days earlier, I expect that the virus was seeded there earlier due to the sizable Asian population leading to more travel between California and Asian countries (including China prior to the ban). Hmm. Maybe the China travel ban did have a big impact??? Especially in light of the study that the New York outbreak was seeded by Europe. If not for the ban, would California have had an outbreak like New York? Just some random thoughts popping into my head as I type.

Just my morning thoughts about how the virus spreads that I woke up with spinning in my head...

I’ve been wondering this myself. My husband worked the last four days the parks were open. He interacts with tons of guests, and his breakroom for his fellow CMs is tiny. Lots of possibility for infection. My kids and I were at the parks the last 3 days it was open (I know some people won’t like me for doing that, but what’s done is done, and we’ve been properly social distancing ever since). I’m seasonal, and I hadn’t worked since January, but my co-workers were one of the roles still operating a few days after the parks, a role that is in very close quarters with guests all day long. My son’s father also works at Disney, and I literately have hundreds of friends and past co-workers from the parks. Not one of them has been sick. Not one of them has posted anything of Facebook about one of their friends or family being sick. Considering how contagious this virus is, and Disney has tens of thousands of people, many with questionable hygiene practices at best, from all over...how on earth are NO CMs sick? I mean, I don’t know all 77k employees, but considering there’s only around 1600 positive cases in the surrounding four counties, it’s very possible that not a single CM has the virus. There was even that one guy who died from the virus who was apparently here at Disney when he was more than likely contagious. So why isn’t the Orlando area a hotbed? Now, there could easily be an answer that my uneducated peabrain can’t figure out, but I’m with you on this one - with the hundreds of thousands of guests we’ve had on property in the months before the closure, how is this area not as bad as Louisiana or NY or some of the other hotspots? I’m thankful it’s not, but it seems to be contrary to everything we know about this virus and how contagious it is.

 

[xdan0920]

PA schools officially closed for the remainder of the school year

Why? What is the rush to make these decisions. Who does it benefit?

 

[DCBaker]

I did read somewhere that both milk and produce were spoiling because there was a lack of demand and/or a lack of logistical ability to get the stuff to market fast enough. People are focused on buying less perishable items since they are trying to shop for groceries less times a week.

Yes! This is happening here in FL.

How about donate to food banks since some say there is more than expected attendance in those locations?

Farmers are doing just that, but food banks don't have endless storage space.

 

[LittleBuford]

if you have never seen the movie "Grapes of Wrath" staring Henry Fonda I suggest you do.

The book is better, and suitably long for a lockdown.

 

[Patcheslee]

I did read somewhere that both milk and produce were spoiling because there was a lack of demand and/or a lack of logistical ability to get the stuff to market fast enough. People are focused on buying less perishable items since they are trying to shop for groceries less times a week.

The price at out local Walmart went up $2/gallon for milk. Many ppl are looking for alternatives because prices are being raised.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why? What is the rush to make these decisions. Who does it benefit?

School was supposed to go until the 2nd week of June so I am guessing if they don’t anticipate going back by mid-May then what’s the point. This also allows the teachers and school administrators to have a firm plan for the remainder of the year instead of being in limbo. Not great news, but not that shocking. I assume many other states will follow soon.

All Pennsylvania K-12 Schools Closed for the Rest of the Year

Pennsylvania schools will remain shuttered for the rest of the academic year because of the coronavirus pandemic under a new state order.

www.nbcphiladelphia.com

 

[GoofGoof]

 

[flynnibus]

Why? What is the rush to make these decisions. Who does it benefit?

It's not a rush. In some ways it's simply a choice of instead of trying to split the amount of time you have into two different methods... and the amount of time is not big enough for either... so you keep ONE method into ONE timeslot and actually try to succeed.

It's too much churn and lost time to try to do distance learning, vacation, then switch back to classroom in a limited fashion, then try to ramp back to normal. Instead... just stick to one... distance learning and deal with the tradeoffs.

 

[Clamman73]

I did read somewhere that both milk and produce were spoiling because there was a lack of demand and/or a lack of logistical ability to get the stuff to market fast enough. People are focused on buying less perishable items since they are trying to shop for groceries less times a week.

I think it was something about some of the places are setup to package in bulk to restaurants, schools, etc vs local supermarkets that would need smaller individual packed items. e.g. cheese

 

[xdan0920]

School was supposed to go until the 2nd week of June so I am guessing if they don’t anticipate going back by mid-May then what’s the point. This also allows the teachers and school administrators to have a firm plan for the remainder of the year instead of being in limbo. Not great news, but not that shocking. I assume many other states will follow soon.

All Pennsylvania K-12 Schools Closed for the Rest of the Year

Pennsylvania schools will remain shuttered for the rest of the academic year because of the coronavirus pandemic under a new state order.

www.nbcphiladelphia.com

There’s no firm plan. My wife is a teacher in NJ. They have no firm plans, because this is a total disaster. Teachers are not prepared for this. Students are not prepared.

It's not a rush. In some ways it's simply a choice of instead of trying to split the amount of time you have into two different methods... and the amount of time is not big enough for either... you keep ONE method into ONE timeslot and actually try to succeed.

It's too much churn and lost time to try to do distance learning, vacation, then switch back to classroom in a limited fashion, then try to ramp back to normal. Instead... just stick to one... distance learning and deal with the tradeoffs.

Wrong headed. Any classroom time is better then no classroom time. It’s simply the easy way out for administration and government. Sad.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Wrong headed. Any classroom time is better then no classroom time. It’s simply the easy way out for administration and government. Sad.

What's sad is your response. We haven't even started re-opening businesses/offices/etc. yet. We don't even know when that will happen. Right now, schools are shut down in Texas until May 4th. School here is let out May 22nd. It makes no sense for them to re-open on May 4th (they would be one of the first things re-opening that's been shut down if they do) when the reality is it's going to be a band-aid that's slowly ripped off. It's going to take time for everything to spin back up. If it takes another week to do that before schools open back up, then you're looking at two weeks of school basically let. It's not worth the time or effort. This is not the 'easy way out' for these people. It's the prudent choice.

 

[xdan0920]

What's sad is your response. We haven't even started re-opening businesses/offices/etc. yet. We don't even know when that will happen. Right now, schools are shut down in Texas until May 4th. School here is let out May 22nd. It makes no sense for them to re-open on May 4th (they would be one of the first things re-opening that's been shut down if they do) when the reality is it's going to be a band-aid that's slowly ripped off. It's going to take time for everything to spin back up. If it takes another week to do that before schools open back up, then you're looking at two weeks of school basically let. It's not worth the time or effort. This is not the 'easy way out' for these people. It's the prudent choice.

That makes sense in Texas. We get out of school the last week of June. Think we should just call it now?

Not worth the time or effort. Sheesh.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

There’s no firm plan. My wife is a teacher in NJ. They have no firm plans, because this is a total disaster. Teachers are not prepared for this. Students are not prepared.

Wrong headed. Any classroom time is better then no classroom time. It’s simply the easy way out for administration and government. Sad.

Well...at the very least, now they know they need to have contingency plans in place for future use if ever needed.

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s no firm plan. My wife is a teacher in NJ. They have no firm plans, because this is a total disaster. Teachers are not prepared for this. Students are not prepared.

Leaving the school year in limbo was the reason there wasn’t a firm plan. How much do you dedicate to distance learning if it ends in a few weeks? Now they know it goes for the remainder of the school year. There needs to be a firm plan. If they don’t have one then that’s on the district or schools that fail to make one. Distance learning sucks, but at least we aren’t waiting around for the other shoe to drop.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The book is better, and suitably long for a lockdown.

In almost 100% of cases the book is always better.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

That makes sense in Texas. We get out of school the last week of June. Think we should just call it now?

Not worth the time or effort. Sheesh.

And in PA, where the Stay at Home order is through the end of April and they have classes through the second week of June? You think there's going to be a lot of teaching done in remaining 3 or so weeks (whenever they would've gotten them opened if the Stay at Home order did end April 30)? Keep forward with distance learning (there's a chance distance learning is going to be needed in the fall if there is an outbreak or if state officials don't feel secure in opening schools for children).

For NJ, that's on them and you should be more focused on that then calling out PA for doing what they feel is best. You think the government and educators in that state didn't want students to return to school? There are friends and teachers they don't get to say bye to, interact with and in some cases, will never see again. That's rough on the psyche of a child.

 

[Chi84]

Probably a dumb question...My family has reservations May 11-16. Should we cancel??? Is there any chance of Disney being open by then???

We had a trip planned in early May for us, our children and their spouses, and our new grandchild. We made the decision to cancel regardless of whether or not Disney is open at the time - we decided to try again for May 2021. Luckily, DVC's modified policies let us keep all our points, and the airlines are not charging change fees so we won't lose anything. Our thinking is that even if Disney is open, it's not going to look much like the Disney vacations we're used to taking. Social distancing rules will almost certainly be in effect, and we would likely be washing our hands every few minutes and worrying about someone getting sick so far from home. I thought I read that Disney was requiring masks to be worn in one of its overseas parks. I guess it comes down to whether you would be comfortable going under whatever rules/policies will be put in place when the parks first open. We weren't willing to chance it.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

That makes sense in Texas. We get out of school the last week of June. Think we should just call it now?

Not worth the time or effort. Sheesh.

Same with us. Personally, I hope they continue to develop learning at home. I earned 2 degrees 100% online...one of which is for education. K-12 CAN be done online, you just need time to develop the lesson plans and gather resources (and in a best-case scenario, develop software). It's not ideal by any stretch, but I'd rather my kids not return to a public school setting this year.

 

[Lilofan]

There’s no firm plan. My wife is a teacher in NJ. They have no firm plans, because this is a total disaster. Teachers are not prepared for this. Students are not prepared.

Wrong headed. Any classroom time is better then no classroom time. It’s simply the easy way out for administration and government. Sad.

It's been a while since I was in school, barely remember but it was good times. How do high school juniors get graded and with a class ranking. I know some of the smarter ones applied for academic scholarships to college and their test scores were a big part in getting these awards.