Except hospitalizations are downtrending on a consistent basis which is super easy to report and is more up to date. It’s also a lagging indicator to cases, Florida is definitely in its rapid decline phase. Will be interesting to see when it bottoms out.It's all getting backfilled. No sense looking at the CDC testing volume for FL for anything in the most recent two weeks. Cannot be used to tell how cases vs testing vs positivity really look. It all changes.
State Date Daily Test Volume 7-Day % Positivity Florida Sep 21, 2021 N/A 0 Florida Sep 20, 2021 N/A 0 Florida Sep 19, 2021 18,042 10.4 Florida Sep 18, 2021 39,139 10.65 Florida Sep 17, 2021 81,071 10.89 Florida Sep 16, 2021 98,524 11.34 Florida Sep 15, 2021 110,226 11.8 Florida Sep 14, 2021 130,880 12.4 Florida Sep 13, 2021 147,094 12.96 Florida Sep 12, 2021 63,079 13.44 Florida Sep 11, 2021 56,852 13.63 Florida Sep 10, 2021 98,025 13.77 Florida Sep 9, 2021 107,790 13.74 Florida Sep 8, 2021 117,444 13.9 Florida Sep 7, 2021 156,285 13.94 Florida Sep 6, 2021 57,124 14.16 Florida Sep 5, 2021 65,966 14.45 Florida Sep 4, 2021 75,711 14.58 Florida Sep 3, 2021 128,231 14.69 Florida Sep 2, 2021 133,437 15.1 Florida Sep 1, 2021 140,155 15.49 Florida Aug 31, 2021 144,444 16.05 Florida Aug 30, 2021 160,367 16.58
I tried to bold all the dates with new case counts, it was the entire table back to 8/30. Some days by just a couple of cases, some days by tens of thousands. The 7-Day % Positivity updates each day too, presumably because the test data changed.
What this tells me is that that we can look at the @DCBaker post of the FL press announcements weekly. We can look at the CDC numbers from 2 to 4 weeks ago, but anything more recent on the CDC site is suspect. It may just be a mirage and all shift over the next few weeks. If it matches the death and case data, after a month it seems to stop shifting.
Meaning, watching the most recent CDC data to see if we've turned a corner or are on the downslope is very suspect. It could all change. Looking at the CDC data today to know where we were a month ago looks pretty good. It's just super delayed.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
1. You keep citing VT but are ignoring multiple posts from other members (including one member who actually lives there) explaining VT's data and showing that it proves the exact opposite of your claim that vaccination will never get us a low enough transmission rate.
2. You keep referencing mitigations as if they're never going away, but most mitigations have already gone away in the vast majority of the nation. And aside from the unenforceable "vaccinated can go unmasked, unvaccinated must mask indoors" rules, how many mitigations actually still exist in the US right now? Masks are required in airports and on public transportation. Some places have indoor mask mandates for all, but it's far from the norm at this point. Some places require proof of vaccination and/or a negative test for things like concerts. Am I missing the news about widespread restaurant capacity limits, etc.? Or do you really think we should go maskless on buses and trains?
It's not really an abrupt change. He's been this way since the beginning. There was a few months in the middle where it was toned down is all.
@DisneyCane has been very consistent that it's a personal problem to protect oneself. That the vaccine is the best way to protect oneself. That if someone doesn't or cannot get vaccinated, it's on them to protect themselves. That each person should make their own decision about accepting different risks and take their own precautions to mitigate personally based on their own personal risk tolerance. That as a personal decision, there should be no mandates at all.
The problem has always been, that while vaccines do help the individual, they're really a population solution first. It's a group project not an individual one. We need the group to solve the pandemic not just distinct individuals. This has been explained by many people many times throughout this thread, yet it never sinks in for several people. Nobody likes that we're dependent on the group, especially when they disagree with a large portion of the group on many things.
I don't expect it to sink in this time either. I can probably even predict someone will respond with "Even if the US group vaccinates enough, the world never will so the group that is everyone will never get there". But, you have to start somewhere. We started somewhere with smallpox, measles, and polio. Everywhere isn't done yet for all of them either.
So we have the group of "it's personal" railing against any "it's the group" actions which unfortunately will delay how long it takes the group to solve the problem. It's kind of ironic that the individuals that want it to end the most are actively causing it to take longer.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Percent of total population fully vaccinated:
Israel 62%
UK 66%
Vermont 69%
You keep saying we have areas with “high levels of vaccination” and quoting places where vaccination levels are not high enough. We know 60-70% is not high enough. We know 90-95% is high enough for measles which is twice as contagious as covid and has a vaccine that has efficacy in a similar range as the covid vaccine. So logic would tell us that until we get to somewhere above 70% and closer to 90% of the whole population vaccinated we won’t know if vaccination can or cannot lower community spread. You are jumping the gun on concluding that’s the case because you want mask requirements gone. I get that. I think we have to make the effort to get to a very high vaccination level (90%+) before we give up and declare victory for the virus.
The really depressing part is that if we got to 90%+ vaccinated and if that didn’t result in lower community spread that means the mitigations you are so against actually will stay around indefinitely. Masks, some level of restrictions on public gatherings, etc. Maybe not mandated by the current Governor of FL, but there Is an election coming up and even if he remains Governor there is no way to stop private businesses like WDW from having mitigations in place. So careful what you wish for.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Neither…you could have taken your 20 grand and booked a 2 week trip to WDW for the 50th staying at the Grand Floridian. You my have had enough let over to buy a special addition 50th anniversary t-shirt and get a reserved seat at the fireworks desert party and multiple lightning lane reservations on RoTR.
Epcotfan21
Well-Known Member
At Disney? Maybe not till the start of the new year.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I see some of this as more abrupt than you but that's perception and total opinion. Not all of it mind you. Like I agree that the singular view of the vaccine has always been there. There has been a lot of "all about me" which is hard to combat. It's an issue with the country as a whole. I see it more for the covid anti-vaxxers as a whole too - which goes against often historically what is gone for with them. I have had people tell me that vaccines were never meant to be about protecting all, just the individual. I want to know where they were during the vaccine appointments for themselves or if raising a kid during their appointments.It's not really an abrupt change. He's been this way since the beginning. There was a few months in the middle where it was toned down is all.
@DisneyCane has been very consistent that it's a personal problem to protect oneself. That the vaccine is the best way to protect oneself. That if someone doesn't or cannot get vaccinated, it's on them to protect themselves. That each person should make their own decision about accepting different risks and take their own precautions to mitigate personally based on their own personal risk tolerance. That as a personal decision, there should be no mandates at all.
The problem has always been, that while vaccines do help the individual, they're really a population solution first. It's a group project not an individual one. We need the group to solve the pandemic not just distinct individuals. This has been explained by many people many times throughout this thread, yet it never sinks in for several people. Nobody likes that we're dependent on the group, especially when they disagree with a large portion of the group on many things.
I don't expect it to sink in this time either. I can probably even predict someone will respond with "Even if the US group vaccinates enough, the world never will so the group that is everyone will never get there". But, you have to start somewhere. We started somewhere with smallpox, measles, and polio. Everywhere isn't done yet for all of them either.
So we have the group of "it's personal" railing against any "it's the group" actions which unfortunately will delay how long it takes the group to solve the problem. It's kind of ironic that the individuals that want it to end the most are actively causing it to take longer.
It isn't personal as a whole. It's global and universal which is something people are absolutely missing. The only personal view should be if there is a legit cause to wait or not vaccinate per a doctor medical order. Like a loved one who was told to wait during cancer treatments. Or those with true vaccine reaction worries who need a special location to be vaccinated. Those are the only times when I see it as "personal"
it's time we stop thinking personally. We need global. And the anti-vax stuff I hear creep in even on vaccinated people needs to end.
My guess is not until after kids 5-11 can vaccinate and/or positivity rates drop more. They don't want to keep flopping around on the rules so when they remove they'll hope it's really for good. JMO
290
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
If you're going to ignore the very severe impact because it's not statistically significant, at least get the number right. That's 290 at minimum, since it's out of 550,130 deaths not the full 677,086 as age wasn't known on all of them.
No worries, you were only off by 367%.
In 2018 and 2019, 53 kids died in hot cars. 106 kids. The auto industry is implementing all kids of things to warn parents about a possible kid left in the backseat. Compared to the number of times a kid was even in a car, or all the times one was and wasn't left behind, that 53 yearly is nothing. It's not even a rounding error in the statistics. Yet, we're doing all kinds of things to stop it. COVID deaths are 300% worse for kids. Plus all the risk a transmissible kid presents to others too.
If you want to pick something to rail against, just stick to that COVID should be a personal risk and not a population one. It's just as wrong, but at least it's consistent and not trying to justify based on any stat.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
From the CDC:
One dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella.
Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps.
The COVID vaccines aren't nearly that effective vs. infection and spread. I'm not "wishing" for the vaccination campaign to not drastically slow the spread. I'm observing that they aren't.
Your last paragraph summarizes the reason for my change in tone. A not-insignificant number of people have been convinced that COVID zero or near zero is possible given enough vaccinations and if that doesn't happen we need to have mitigation forever. At one time not so long ago, you yourself were in favor of no more mitigation once the vaccine is available for children 5-11 and they have had time to become fully vaccinated. Now you've switched to the goals being community spread and case numbers.
In FL, through 8/12 just before the plateau in the delta spike there were 12,420,704 residents with at least one shot and 10,319,844 residents fully vaccinated. Through 9/16 there were 13,427,208 residents with at least one shot and 11,208,873 fully vaccinated. Do you believe that the 889,029 additional fully vaccinated residents, representing 4% of the population are the reason for the rapid decline in cases over the past month? Assuming it isn't and the decline continues and cases/community spread return to mid June levels in 3-4 weeks, are you willing to even entertain the idea that forced vaccination of people who don't wish to be vaccinated for the good of everybody may not be necessary?
Why is there not even an attempt made by the CDC to track hospitalizations and deaths from reinfections in unvaccinated people like they do for vaccine breakthroughs?
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
No more than two weeks after Orange county gets under 5% positivity. So... based on UF projections, this would mean probably November for Disney (If not a little sooner).
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DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
In my post I meant to point out the deaths for 5-11 year olds since those were next up for vaccination. It's 112.290
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.covid.cdc.gov
If you're going to ignore the very severe impact because it's not statistically significant, at least get the number right. That's 290 at minimum, since it's out of 550,130 deaths not the full 677,086 as age wasn't known on all of them.
No worries, you were only off by 367%.
In 2018 and 2019, 53 kids died in hot cars. 106 kids. The auto industry is implementing all kids of things to warn parents about a possible kid left in the backseat. Compared to the number of times a kid was even in a car, or all the times one was and wasn't left behind, that 53 yearly is nothing. It's not even a rounding error in the statistics. Yet, we're doing all kinds of things to stop it. COVID deaths are 300% worse for kids. Plus all the risk a transmissible kid presents to others too.
If you want to pick something to rail against, just stick to that COVID should be a personal risk and not a population one. It's just as wrong, but at least it's consistent and not trying to justify based on any stat.
The vehicle related analogies that people love to use are false equivalencies. Kids left in a hot car is a 100% preventable death. If you don't leave the kid in the car they will not die. Nothing COVID related is 100% except if you lock down the world.
If we want to use the automotive equivalency, from 2002-2011 (the most recent data I found quickly) over 900 children 12 and under were killed in car accidents per year with a population mortality rate in 2011 (one of the lowest years) of 1.2 per 100k per year. Using the FL data, the COVID population mortality rate for 15 and under for the 18 month pandemic is 0.5 per 100k. Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that children under 12 are at a significantly higher risk of dying while riding in a motor vehicle than they are from COVID. Now can we stop with the false analogies?
GoofGoof
Premium Member
You keep downplaying the effectiveness of covid vaccines because it supports your position that we cannot win and should just give up and drop all mitigations. You don’t want to be labeled anti-vaxx but that is in fact anti-vaccine. It’s fine to have that opinion, you are not alone. Many who won’t take the vaccine hear these arguments all day and use it as a reason to not get the vaccine.
Covid vaccines are highly effective and with boosters may get back to the 90%+ we started at. MMR requires boosters to reach full efficacy. Even if the efficacy never hits 95% again it doesn’t have to since covid is half as contagious as measles. You are in a rush to jump to a conclusion since you think that’s the fastest way to dropping masks.
This discussion only highlights why vaccine mandates and passports are the best and only viable path forward. Will they work? Will we get enough people vaccinated? Who knows, but I’m certainly glad the decision makers didn’t just give up.
112 still isn't 79, only off by 40% this time. Because kids under 5 don't matter either.
All the analogies are crap, you're right.
But so is that the solution to the pandemic is a personal thing to just accept your own risk.
Either the group, all of us, reduce transmission or we don't. It's that simple. It's been that simple for 18+ months too.
Don't like doing mitigations? Fine, find another way to reduce transmission? What was that, get enough people vaccinated and it does it? That's great, lets do that. Upset that "enough" isn't 50%, 60%, or even 70% but higher? That's unfortunate, but still the plan.
Let's say it is 98% that we need vaccinated to reduce community spread. Then, that's the goal. Not achievable because of "reasons", that's to bad for us.
Stop with the we need 100% and the it either works or it doesn't work stuff too. Those are just as crap as the analogies. Each of the different things either reduces or increases risk and transmission. We need to do the things that will reduce transmission to a manageable level. We've talked about this level before. We're not there, not even close today. We looked close over the summer, but couldn't keep it there and didn't have the conditions or processes to hold it at that level. So, we try again, get the stuff done that will get us down to an acceptable level.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
On the topic of boosters the JnJ prelim results released were that a second dose would boost the efficacy against even mild infection to 94%. Some of that study was done before delta and some during and after so it’s hard to say how that translates to today’s real world. I believe Pfizer and Moderna are also running trials for their 3rd shot boosters but we don’t have full efficacy data yet. The point is that boosters can make the covid vaccine efficacy very high again.
www.marketwatch.com
Pfizer says 95% from their study in Israel:
www.cnbc.com
J&J says booster shot greatly improves its COVID-19 vaccineâs efficacy as experts await FDA decision
Johnson & Johnson became the latest COVID-19 vaccine maker to offer an update on booster doses Tuesday, when it said data from a Phase 3 trial and the real...
www.marketwatch.com
Pfizer says 95% from their study in Israel:
Pfizer says Israel data shows third Covid shot restores protection from infection to 95% as it makes case to FDA for boosters
The FDA released the data as the agency faces pressure from the Biden administration to authorize booster shots for the general public as early as next week.
www.cnbc.com
ABQ
Well-Known Member
As we are talking about vaccination rates, I took a look at my state's and wow are there differing figures out there.
Google, which uses Our World shows this:
while the state's dept of health site is much higher:
Perhaps google is including 12 and up, not sure why the state ignores that group.
Google, which uses Our World shows this:
while the state's dept of health site is much higher:
Perhaps google is including 12 and up, not sure why the state ignores that group.
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DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Well, were going to find out if it works since the powers that be are putting the mandates in place and the testing option will let them stand up through court challenges (which is the reason the testing alternative is there).
I still ask the question, if we get 80% to 85% of the population vaccinated and community transmission is still "substantial" in a lot of places, where do we go from there? Mitigation forever? Have to wait for vaccine approval for 0-4 year olds?
The MMR booster is years after the first dose. If COVID boosters are required every 6 months to maintain efficacy, that isn't a vaccine with a booster it's an ongoing prescription. Regardless, I'm not sure that the vaccines ever were 90% effective in preventing infection and transmission of delta.
I'm not downplaying the effectiveness of the COVID vaccines against severe illness, hospitalization and death. In fact I'm "up-playing" that aspect as my reason why I believe it is up to people to protect themselves. I'm only "downplaying" the reduction in spread because statements from the CDC and available data show that they are not nearly as effective in that aspect against delta as they were against prior variants.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Moderna CEO says worldwide pandemic could be over by second half of next year:
news.yahoo.com
He also talks about the boosters being developed including a delta specific version.
Moderna chief executive sees pandemic over in a year - newspaper
Moderna Inc Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel thinks the coronavirus pandemic could be over in a year as increased vaccine production ensures global supplies, he told the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung. The price of vaccination will stay the same, he said.
He also talks about the boosters being developed including a delta specific version.
It depends what question you're trying to answer.
CDC for NM:
At least 1 dose, age 65+: 98.3%
At least 1 dose, age 18+: 85.8%
At least 1 dose, age 12+: 84.4%
At least 1 dose, age 0+: 71.9%
Fully Vaccinated, age 65+: 89.1%
Fully Vaccinated, age 18+: 74.7%
Fully Vaccinated, age 12+: 73.2%
Fully Vaccinated, age 0+: 62.4%
Not sure why the state dashboard doesn't match the CDC for the 18+ number, they should agree or be very close based on the label.
If your question is "When will the pandemic come under control and be over?", the only number that matters is the last one, "Fully Vaccinated, age 0+: 62.4%". We know 62.4% isn't anywhere near enough. Likely we need over 80% but no real idea, it's all a guess.
If you're asking other questions, like "How are the most vulnerable protected", "How fast are we progressing", "How many of eligible are progressing", then the different numbers matter.
It's a huge pain and failing in the media reporting. Stories frequently use one of the numbers, sometimes without the qualifier of which one it is like in a headline. Or someone compares two numbers for different areas and they may be fore different groups.
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