Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

I am all for vaccination. I think the current known numbers support it.

But the numbers NJ is putting out on efficacy and hospitalization is deceiving.

Efficacy in studies is not how many are symptom free divided by how many vaccinated. The true number is complicated by other contributing conditions . Putting those aside for simplification it still more like:

A=Number of symptomatic infection in vaccinated
B=number of vaccinated.

C=Number of symptomatic infection in non vaccinated

D=number of non vaccinated.

A/B is the rate of symptomatic infection per vaccinated person.

1-A/B is the percent of all vaccinated who never had symptoms. Not efficacy.

For efficacy you have to consider how many would have had symptoms if they were not vaccinated:
Which is (A/B)/(C/D).

NJ is inflating vaccine efficacy by using A/B as efficacy. It is correct to say the vaccinated symptomatic rate is A/B. But deceiving to not then at least state what the unvaccinated infection rate is. But infection rate is not effecacy.

You are correct. To truly get efficacy from general public infections, you have to know how many people are vaccinated and unvaccinated for a time period (a week would probably get reasonably accurate data) and then do the calculation based on cases, hospitalizations and deaths over that time period.

The Orange County data over three days suggests a 100% effective vaccine which we know is not true. If we use their data over the course of a week then it can be calculated with pretty good accuracy.

 

[Andrew C]

If that data is true then it's going to hurt further vaccination efforts.

It’s been reported in many different communities throughout the US that hospitalizations are 99% unvaccinated. Playing out from community to community. I believe you have seen the same reporting. Not sure what else would convince people here to get the shot.

 

[lisa12000]

If that data is true then it's going to hurt further vaccination efforts.

the government have just said that by end of September vaccine passports will be mandatory in nightclubs ans other crowded venues (so we assume gigs, festivals, sport stadia etc) so we are going down the French line - testing not accepted nor recovered prior infection

 

[danlb_2000]

It’s been reported in many different communities throughout the US that hospitalizations are 99% unvaccinated. Playing out from community to community. I believe you have seen the same reporting. Not sure what else would convince people here to get the shot.

Not sure why the UK data doesn't align with this.

 

[Andrew C]

Not sure why the UK data doesn't align with this.

Beats me. Don’t have time to look into it further at the moment.

 

[Trauma]

If that data is true then it's going to hurt further vaccination efforts.

Doesn’t it mean if these numbers are true that Australia has a new variant that bypasses the vaccine completely ?

 

[Touchdown]

Doesn’t it mean if these numbers are true that Australia has a new variant that bypasses the vaccine completely ?

Australia is not widely vaccinated.

 

[Trauma]

Australia is not widely vaccinated.

Yes but yeh article states that vaccinated people are more hospitalized than non vaccinated.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yes but yeh article states that vaccinated people are more hospitalized than non vaccinated.

I think we've got some crossed wires here - the article that says 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated is referring to the UK.

 

[Trauma]

I think we've got some crossed wires here - the article that says 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated is referring to the UK.

ok so doesn’t that mean the vaccine is not working in the UK?

If more vaccinated people are getting sick than non vaccinated?

I guess I still don’t get how this can be the case.

 

[hopemax]

Not sure why the UK data doesn't align with this.

Everyone has the same base risk as before. The older you are, the more comorbidities the greater the chance for poor outcomes. The hospitalizations just reveal how the various risks and statuses line up with each other. IMO this means:

High risk, vaccinated is still more likely going to lead to a hospitalization, than a low risk, unvaccinated person.

This doesn't mean vaccines don't do anything. It just means we have something like (highest chance, lowest chance)

High risk, unvaccinated
High risk, vaccinated
Low risk, unvaccinated
Low risk, vaccinated

Instead of all the unvaccinated, before all the vaccinated. But in both high/low situations, reducing risk = vaccination

 

[Bob Harlem]

Not sure why the UK data doesn't align with this.

Israel is similar, although with Israel, almost all of these are over 60 years old. https://www.timesofisrael.com/just-...in-israel-is-both-vaccinated-and-under-60-tv/

We're talking 61 people total, so it's still doing a great job with the vast majority.

 

[Touchdown]

Meanwhile, in the United States we had our two best new case days of the entire month this weekend

Does this mean anything? Who knows but for the first time in nearly a month the seven day average is going down.

 

[hopemax]

As countries reach higher levels of vaccination, remember in a theoretical "upper bound" situation where a community is 100% vaccinated, and breakthrough infections are expected... Means 100% of hospitalizations occur within the vaccinated population, because no unvaccinated person exists to be hospitalized.

Understanding the mathematical implications of percentages is important!

 

[carolina_yankee]

Meanwhile, in the United States we had our two best new case days of the entire month this weekend

View attachment 573356
Does this mean anything? Who knows but for the first time in nearly a month the seven day average is going down.

Wouldn’t that be due to lack of reporting over the weekend? It boggles the mind to believe that cases drop that dramatically over two days.

 

[mmascari]

Meanwhile, in the United States we had our two best new case days of the entire month this weekend

View attachment 573356
Does this mean anything? Who knows but for the first time in nearly a month the seven day average is going down.

Select just FL instead of the entire county.

In the data, FL has 0 cases for the 17th and 18th.

So, if we think that's correct all of a sudden, then this is great.
Otherwise, come back sometime between now and next week and FL numbers will likely change. I would guess by 8 or 9 thousand, easily double the size of those last two bars.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I am all for vaccination. I think the current known numbers support it.

But the numbers NJ is putting out on efficacy and hospitalization is deceiving.

Efficacy in studies is not how many are symptom free divided by how many vaccinated. The true number is complicated by other contributing conditions . Putting those aside for simplification it still more like:

A=Number of symptomatic infection in vaccinated
B=number of vaccinated.

C=Number of symptomatic infection in non vaccinated

D=number of non vaccinated.

A/B is the rate of symptomatic infection per vaccinated person.

1-A/B is the percent of all vaccinated who never had symptoms. Not efficacy.

For efficacy you have to consider how many would have had symptoms if they were not vaccinated:
Which is (A/B)/(C/D).

NJ is inflating vaccine efficacy by using 1-A/B as efficacy. It is correct to say the vaccinated symptomatic rate is A/B. But deceiving to not then at least state what the unvaccinated infection rate is. But 1-infection rate is not efficacy.

Nevertheless, those going to the hospital, ending up on vents, or dying or not the ones who are vaccinated. The bottom line remains the same. Get vaccinated. It works.

 

[KrzyKtty]

ok so doesn’t that mean the vaccine is not working in the UK?

If more vaccinated people are getting sick than non vaccinated?

I guess I still don’t get how this can be the case.

Basically what the article says is that as the countries vaccination rate increases, those hospitalized with COVID fully vaccinated will increase as well.

It states, as it is well known, the vaccine is not 100% at preventing the virus, or hospitalizations. It does state that the vaccine is really really effective, but not 100%. Therefore, as large swaths of the population join in the "fully vaccinated status," larger numbers will also be part of that breakout group proportionally.

 

[wdwmagic]

This says a lot

 

[KrzyKtty]

Select just FL instead of the entire county.

In the data, FL has 0 cases for the 17th and 18th.

So, if we think that's correct all of a sudden, then this is great.
Otherwise, come back sometime between now and next week and FL numbers will likely change. I would guess by 8 or 9 thousand, easily double the size of those last two bars.

FL doesn't report daily, or over the weekend, so those days will always be 0, and when the numbers are reported again, it will be basically for 3+ days worth.