Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DavidNoble]

They just may find the tourist sites closed, etc.

fact is — as you now admit, American tourism outside of the US will be quite depressed for at least the next several months.

Not what I said. I said the international air travel is greatly depressed. Airlines are planning for the rebound and they are increasing their routes, increasing the number of flights, etc. Because they're anticipating that demand and thus need the supply (airlines aren't going to just start forking over significant dollars for nothing, they know what's coming).

And they might find tourist sites closed. Things are going to continue to be fluid. But I see the deals popping up, I read various travel communities as they're booking trips for the next few months, and I imagine that is translating to what the airlines are seeing as air fares for summer are high right now with few deals in June/July as they anticipate increased demand.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Will USA will lose masks by late summer or early fall soon?

 

[havoc315]

Not what I said. I said the international air travel is greatly depressed. Airlines are planning for the rebound and they are increasing their routes, increasing the number of flights, etc. Because they're anticipating that demand and thus need the supply (airlines aren't going to just start forking over significant dollars for nothing, they know what's coming).

And they might find tourist sites closed. Things are going to continue to be fluid. But I see the deals popping up, I read various travel communities as they're booking trips for the next few months, and I imagine that is translating to what the airlines are seeing as air fares for summer are high right now with few deals in June/July as they anticipate increased demand.

I am 100% confident that American travel to Europe will not be anywhere close to Pre-Covid levels this summer. There is zero evidence that such tourism is going to return to Pre-Covid levels that quickly.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I am 100% confident that American travel to Europe will not be anywhere close to Pre-Covid levels this summer. There is zero evidence that such tourism is going to return to Pre-Covid levels that quickly.

Most likely we will see return to Pre-Covid levels by end of the year or next year. With no masks and social distancing also cases are so low in Europe.

 

[DavidNoble]

I am 100% confident that American travel to Europe will not be anywhere close to Pre-Covid levels this summer. There is zero evidence that such tourism is going to return to Pre-Covid levels that quickly.

No one has ever said it will return to pre-COVID. I'm not sure what discussion you're looking at.

 

[havoc315]

No one has ever said it will return to pre-COVID. I'm not sure what discussion you're looking at.

??? I said there will be less than Americans going to Europe, going on cruises, etc, this summer.
You said I was wrong. So now you’re agreeing with me???

 

[GoofGoof]

I didn’t say there wouldn’t be a significant increase in crowds/demand. I said that Disney will continue to limit capacity due to lack of workers. I’ve been saying that for a couple months now — that labor and other issues unrelated to Covid will keep WDW from fully re-opening. I never said there would be a lack of demand.

And that’s still true —- with one big change.
They previously said they wouldn’t bring back the College Program till late in the year. But they are so desperately short staffed, that they are now rushing to bring back the College Program next month.
This will help them start to increase capacity. But it will likely be late summer before they have enough staff to go to full capacity.

The college program is back in June. Like I said a few weeks back there would be an adjustment if labor was an issue to re-opening stuff and the adjustment has occurred. Why pay locals more when you can bring your cheap labor back instead. There‘s no reason college students whose classes are wrapping up can’t or won’t be interested in working at WDW this Summer. Problem solved.

Once they recalibrate the distancing there‘s no real issue with park or ride capacity anymore. All that is left to bring back are people eating shows. I have consistently been very positive about the Summer at WDW since the earnings call back in Feb when Chapek said if the vaccines were available to all adults by April that was a game changer. It was a long climb, but we got there and now we are seeing the start of distancing being relaxed and a push nationally to eliminate masks at least outdoors. Most if not all Covid restrictions at WDW could be gone by the end of the Summer. Lots of people doubted we would get the vaccines rolled out on pace with manufacturer projections. Lots of people said no “return to normal until the Fall”. Lots of people said WDW wouldn’t relax distancing or masks or allow capacity to exceed maybe 40-50% before Fall. Luckily for all of us, lots of people were wrong. All that positive stuff an pixie dust aside, I’m a realist at heart so I can’t say I expect more than “normal” domestic demand at the parks. I’m sure Disney would love to see it and if they did see that demand coming they would find the staff to make it work, but it’s just not likely to materialize. The Summer ramp up is full on, but returns of ”normal“ demand are still a ways off. If the UK and Canadian visitors are back some time later this Summer or Fall that will help a lot.

 

[havoc315]

The college program is back in June.

Like I said a few weeks back there would be an adjustment if labor was an issue to re-opening stuff and the adjustment has occurred. Why pay locals more when you can bring your cheap labor back instead. There‘s no reason college students whose classes are wrapping up can’t or won’t be interested in working at WDW this Summer. Problem solved.

it helps. It doesn’t solve the problem. It’s May 5th now. They aren’t going to have 100% College Program enrollment on-site in just 4 weeks. And they need to be trained, etc. And College Program cast aren’t cooks, they aren’t housekeeping, etc.


So it helps, but it won’t get them to full staff by June. As I said, it will be very late summer before they will sort out full staffing.

Once they recalibrate the distancing there‘s no real issue with park or ride capacity anymore.

Incorrect. Character meets, entertainment — that’s all part of park capacity. Even if Toy Story Mania is running at 100% capacity with no social distancing, lack of BATB and Indy is still a reduction in operational capacity. Lack of character meets reduces operational capacity.

All that is left to bring back are people eating shows. I have consistently been very positive about the Summer at WDW since the earnings call back in Feb when Chapek said if the vaccines were available to all adults by April that was a game changer. It was a long climb, but we got there and now we are seeing the start of distancing being relaxed and a push nationally to eliminate masks at least outdoors. Most if not all Covid restrictions at WDW could be gone by the end of the Summer.

By end of September? I agree. In fact, I think Covid restrictions may be gone long before that.

As I said, many of the restrictions aren’t really about Covid, but may use Covid as an excuse. Fastpass, full shows, 100% of resorts and restaurants, they aren’t rushing back. Maybe by the end of September, but it’s not happening by the start of the summer season, which is now less than 4 weeks away.

Lots of people doubted we would get the vaccines rolled out on pace with manufacturer projections. Lots of people said no “return to normal until the Fall”. Lots of people said WDW wouldn’t relax distancing or masks or allow capacity to exceed maybe 40-50% before Fall. Luckily for all of us, lots of people were wrong. All that positive stuff an pixie dust aside, I’m a realist at heart so I can’t say I expect more than “normal” domestic demand at the parks. I’m sure Disney would love to see it and if they did see that demand coming they would find the staff to make it work, but it’s just not likely to materialize. The Summer ramp up is full on, but returns of ”normal“ demand are still a ways off. If the UK and Canadian visitors are back some time later this Summer or Fall that will help a lot.

 

[corsairk09]

Will character meet and greets be the last to go or masks indoors?

My bet is mask indoors because people are used to it and it’s free For Disney to require that. Plus they’re making money off the masks which see price increases every couple of months

 

[lisa12000]

Tbf in terms of the uk and Europe: italy has opened up many tourist areas and hospitality, as have spain - France is reopening soon and restarting tourism from mid May, germany is fluid ans perhaps a bit more cautious, Greece and Portugal will be fully open summer wise and Iceland are welcoming vaccinated travellers and is basically open - do situation in terms of tourist sites is improving all the time

as for the uk - all our outdoor tourist sites are open and indoor ones are opening on May 17th as is indoor hospitality. We are allowing fans back in stadia to limited capacity then as well. We host the Euros as well later in the summer with half capacity with fully capacity stadia by august - any remaining restrictions should be done by June 21st.

Our traffic light system is to be announced Friday with the USA possibly going green which would allow tourism inwards but of course we need your president to reciprocate on that. We also host the G7 in June so I’m sure boris will want most things open by then. Note of caution that the g7 contingent are over right now with india as guests - two tested positive once they’d arrived in the country - cue some anger within the country that they weee allowed - May give a little pause for thought

 

[fgmnt]

it helps. It doesn’t solve the problem. It’s May 5th now. They aren’t going to have 100% College Program enrollment on-site in just 4 weeks. And they need to be trained, etc. And College Program cast aren’t cooks, they aren’t housekeeping, etc.

DCP is pretty much going to help staff what I assume will be a massive uptick in ODV and supplementary operations, because they can't be TS waitstaff. They can be housekeepers, but I don't know if you open Port Orleans without a restaurant. They also are not putting college sophomores on Maleficent duty at Fantasmic, but they will probably be the key to get that show back and running with adequate overall staffing that can shift over to the crowd control and vending. They can be lifeguards, right? Not a headliner, but I imagine DCP could lead to the reopening of Typhoon Lagoon.

The biggest pinch point with Disney right now has to be table service dining. They are leaving crazy money on the table if that is not back up to 100% by October.

 

[Epcotfan21]

Will USA will lose masks by late summer or early fall soon?

You do realize you ask this same question in this same exact thread every day, right? The answer is the same EVERY DAY. No one knows.

 

[FormerMember]

The reason I say the things I do is where I am we have restrictions in place til ICUs come down and people vaccinated go up. The good news here vaccine hesitancy is low. They opened it up to many places for 18+ and appointments a full.

Where are you again?

 

[AEfx]

I didn’t name anyone on purpose. If you’re not that guy, you’re not. I don’t even remember who it was, so I couldn’t tell you either. But, I’m sure there is one, and they know it, and accept it, whomever it is.

LOL, Got ya - the person you replied to was quoting my post, and has been trying to paint me as your description, hence my confusion.

 

[Kevin_W]

Don’t get me wrong, the CM’s were great, friendly and helpful, at least the ones I dealt with but you don’t realize how much of the story disappears when there is no international cast members. Guess we all get used to some of the things that we love in Disney but when it’s gone we see how much it meant. My vote would be to bring them back as soon as possible.

I agree whole-heartedly!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Awesome. Floridians: vaccinate your kids asap.

New mutation of Brazilian COVID variant found in Florida

Florida’s Department of Health has reported a new coronavirus variant of concern in the state, a mutation of the highly contagious variant first discovered in Brazil. So far, two cases of the variant known as P2 have emerged in Florida, in a 74-year-old man in Broward County and a 51-year-old...

www.google.com

 

[Jrb1979]

Where are you again?

Ontario Canada

 

[Tony the Tigger]

How do I get on the list for DCL?

10% capacity cruise with everyone wearing masks and social distancing (and we’re vaccinated) for free. Ok!

CDC sets rules for trial cruises with volunteer passengers

Cruise lines can soon begin trial voyages in U.S. waters.

www.local10.com

 

[DisneyFan32]

Awesome. Floridians: vaccinate your kids asap.

New mutation of Brazilian COVID variant found in Florida

Florida’s Department of Health has reported a new coronavirus variant of concern in the state, a mutation of the highly contagious variant first discovered in Brazil. So far, two cases of the variant known as P2 have emerged in Florida, in a 74-year-old man in Broward County and a 51-year-old...

www.google.com

Isn't this stain will be not affect vaccines? I'm scared this new variant.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Isn't this stain will be not affect vaccines? I'm scared this new variant.

Don't worry...it's just something they're watching.