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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Another way to look at the demand issue, at least for FL:
For a minute now, that “first dose” number has been right around 2.8-2.9 million. That means, to me anyway, that for every person completing their second dose, someone else is behind them in line to take a spot. Give or take on any given day, but the trend is consistent. If that first dose number falls off well before they (FL) have enough people vaccinated, it will be a sign of alarm.
I don’t like the unused appointments sitting around, but with more sites added and more supply pumped in, it may be that ~3M shots/day is our threshold without a new approach.
Good perspective. Maybe someone has time (I won't until next week) and can take the daily "Total People Vaccinated" from the vaccine report that @DCBaker posts and put them in a spreadsheet for the past 6-8 weeks and then subtract the prior day's total to see how many people are added to that category daily. If you plot that and do a seven day rolling average it should show if the demand is staying relatively consistent.

There are concerning things like when people post articles about Palm Beach County having unclaimed appointments and County sites but the Publix, Walmart and CVS appointments in the County seem to fill up so maybe it's less of a demand issue and more of a convenience issue or preference issue.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Good perspective. Maybe someone has time (I won't until next week) and can take the daily "Total People Vaccinated" from the vaccine report that @DCBaker posts and put them in a spreadsheet for the past 6-8 weeks and then subtract the prior day's total to see how many people are added to that category daily. If you plot that and do a seven day rolling average it should show if the demand is staying relatively consistent.

There are concerning things like when people post articles about Palm Beach County having unclaimed appointments and County sites but the Publix, Walmart and CVS appointments in the County seem to fill up so maybe it's less of a demand issue and more of a convenience issue or preference issue.
The CDC publishes that chart for us.

The seven day moving average peaked at 3.2 million doses on April 11. It has been falling over the past ten days and sat at 2.8 million as of April 16. Data newer than April 16 is incomplete so that's the latest we have.
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
Good perspective. Maybe someone has time (I won't until next week) and can take the daily "Total People Vaccinated" from the vaccine report that @DCBaker posts and put them in a spreadsheet for the past 6-8 weeks and then subtract the prior day's total to see how many people are added to that category daily. If you plot that and do a seven day rolling average it should show if the demand is staying relatively consistent.

There are concerning things like when people post articles about Palm Beach County having unclaimed appointments and County sites but the Publix, Walmart and CVS appointments in the County seem to fill up so maybe it's less of a demand issue and more of a convenience issue or preference issue.
I've had one going for a bit, need to catch up on this past week though. Was using it for Indiana comparison. *didn't realize how bored I get when we aren’t planning a Disney vacation lol*
 

helenabear

Well-Known Member
The body and the brain are more intertwined than people realize. I am firmly convinced that you can cause physical symptoms by worrying about them too much. Loss of taste is a common Covid symptom. This lady may have been paranoid that the vaccine was going to make her lose taste, and now she's feeling that she's experiencing it. Or it could be a legitimate side effect. Who knows?

Regardless, though, how do you go from "I recently got the vaccine and had this side effect" to "I don't want to lose taste for life"? I am not aware of a single reported case where a side effect from the vaccine lasted more than short period of time. There are certainly no indications that any side effect would last for life.

I wish people would realize that the actual mRNA from the vaccine is completely out of your system and gone after the briefest time. After that, it's just you and your immune system building up its response.
Nocebo effect is real. Whether real shot or not. Just the idea that you expect something can cause it. Through a friend I know a surgeon who is in the same trial I am in and was convinced he had the real deal. He got the placebo.

Nocebo has been seen in many other vaccines too. Not to say many side effects aren't real effects directly from the vaccine, but some are due to the mind thinking it should.

They literally just dumped all our kids together in school full-time in person starting 2 weeks ago...right before vaccines are about to be approved for 12-15yo kids. Hybrid is completely off the table at this point. With teenagers and after school hang-outs being a big driver of new cases in our town, I really wish they'd been allowed to wait for the vaccines to be approved. (My oldest is 15)
We're waiting on a vaccine here too. Hoping for approval soon, but how long it takes no one knows. Hybrid, completely remote or all in, the older kids did hang out more. We have zero in school cases. Outside of school including fully remote times caused some spread.

If we wait until vaccines are approved districts would never go back this year. Not even until 2022. We've been back all in since March 1st. Ticked the teachers off as they were not vaccinated fully, but it was okay.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I expect NJ will lift outdoor mask mandate first by next month then last one is indoor masks by late summer/fall as NJ will no longer uses masks and social distancing by fall.

gonna lose by 15%...so not sure what the point of paying attention to him is?

you do understand that he’s not in charge...or relevant...to any regulations, correct?
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
2,000 cases and 24 deaths are statistically zero. You'd be better off never leaving your house to drive anywhere because car crashes are far more common.

Nobody has ever argued that COVID presents *precisely zero* risk to children. We have argued that the life-altering mitigation efforts are not commensurate with the miniscule magnitude of the risk.

David Leonhardt at The New York Times put it very well a few days ago. "Victory over Covid will not involve its elimination. Victory will instead mean turning it into the sort of danger that plane crashes or shark attacks present — too small to be worth reordering our lives."

NYT had a good article today on the risks to children: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/...te=1&user_id=0442ebbf55947b5cf6d5c57cc6041662
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Which, of course, is the opposite order of effectiveness according to the WHO.

the distancing has been effective in controlling spread since day 1...
Frankly...you’re wrong.

i’m not advocating not getting rid of them at the first nanosecond possible...I am. But a big part of that is people to shut up, get the shot, stop displaying your stupidity by insisting you know better than the educated...and move on.

the masks are not a major inconvenience...and standing on top of each other has been stupid since the beginning of time.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
the distancing has been effective in controlling spread since day 1...
Frankly...you’re wrong.

i’m not advocating not getting rid of them at the first nanosecond possible...I am. But a big part of that is people to shut up, get the shot, stop displaying your stupidity by insisting you know better than the educated...and move on.

the masks are not a major inconvenience...and standing on top of each other has been stupid since the beginning of time.
I think you misunderstood my post. Whatever I quoted talked about removing distancing and then masks. According to the WHO (and I think the CDC also), distancing is more effective than masks.

I don't know if the "stupidity" comment was directed at me but I'm not sure what stupidity I displayed in that post.

I like math and I know that 570,000 people don’t die of the “flu” in 14 months In the US.

math is our friend
I have no idea how this comment is related to my post. I didn't mention the flu at all. I simply stated what was the biggest motivating factor for me, personally, to get vaccinated as soon as I had the opportunity. For me it was to minimize the risk of losing taste and smell for a long time which I've known a few people that have had that happen to. I am very low risk for serious COVID complications so that wasn't really as much motivation.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
doesn’t really matter by state...

the “sheep” model for herd immunity is pretty straight forward...can’t allow man made geographic lines to matter as much as we are. Probably a flaw in the federal system that Madison and Hamilton may not have considered?
It only matters because the observation is simple on that chart published every day. The national picture the CDC publishes includes everyone with one or more shots and doesn’t really show the steady state of one dose only (at least on the main vaccine dashboard for mobile).
Montana’s dashboard is horrific for diving into the woods and finding demographic data or the “dose gap” I’m referring to here.
ND, and I’m sure others, fall somewhere in between. I like the ones that show not only 18+ and 65+, but break down decade age data as a percentage.
So, of course one state doesn’t win until we all do. Our data is at the state and county level, and should be used to make decisions and “rally the troops.”
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I never go to New Jersey....

...I only live here.

And no way in the sam hell they drop the masks before they have about 90% vaccination and/or the cases flatline and/or kids start getting shots.

most of our spikes now seem to be traced to the teenager group. Which I can’t fathom because none of our teens are spoiled little brats looking for fun in beach towns? 🤔

not on Sherrif Phil’s watch...
Same for our town up in MA...for a long while now...it's the teenagers driving most of the new cases. There are still a few in the two groups just above 40, but elementary schoolers, toddlers, and the 30-40 age groups are the ones with the least amount of new cases here.
The good news here is any day now the vaccines should be approved for kids 12-15 and so all teens will be able to be vaccinated. I think this is a big deal and will greatly help slow the current spread. I know when I bring up younger teens being vaccinated others here disagree and feel that teens are irrelevant in the vaccination effort, but we can agree to disagree on that. My kid’s district is doing the vaccines right at the High School during school hours. They are only doing 16+ now but plan to do a second round once the younger kids are approved. From what I’ve heard the acceptance rate is very high. It’s one instance where teenage group think works to benefit society.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
So nobody knows NJ will lift mask mandates and social distancing yet? What month they will lift mask mandate and social distancing?

time will tell.

If vaccinations and case numbers look good...they will push to ease some restrictions for the summer beach season (July 1)...if possible

the shore towns drive about $4 billion in annual tax revenue in the state...that’s a very large chunk of municipal budgets and they won’t want to keep things tamped down if they can justify not doing so.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The good news here is any day now the vaccines should be approved for kids 12-15 and so all teens will be able to be vaccinated. I think this is a big deal and will greatly help slow the current spread. I know when I bring up younger teens being vaccinated others here disagree and feel that teens are irrelevant in the vaccination effort, but we can agree to disagree on that. My kid’s district is doing the vaccines right at the High School during school hours. They are only doing 16+ now but plan to do a second round once the younger kids are approved. From what I’ve heard the acceptance rate is very high. It’s one instance where teenage group think works to benefit society.

teens are the most wreckless segment of the population with socialization/mobility. They need to be taken care of ASAP. Children masquerading like adults.
 

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