Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Makes some sense based on the numbers. If we have have 51% of adults with at least 1 shot they aren’t waiting for appointments. Assuming they make appointments up to about 10 days out and we are still doing on average 2 million first shots a day there

We aren’t currently doing 2 million first shots per day. Been a while since we were even close to that.

I don’t know where to find the exact nationwide, but in NY, it’s now 50% first dose, 50% second dose. It’s my understanding that next week, it will be majority second dose.

Bloomberg reported 1.8 million total doses yesterday. Assuming the nationwide ratio is similar, that would be only about 900,000 first doses. (Tuesdays aren’t the heaviest reporting days, but we are unlikely to hit 2 million first doses even on a heavy day at this point).

If we stayed at that pace, it would take another 2 and a half months to catch up to Israel, but the pace is continuing to slow. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for by July.

could be upwards of 20M people with appointments who haven’t gone yet. That would get us to around 60% of adults who either already started or have an appointment. Assuming the 71% number in the poll is accurate that means only 11% left to make appointments. Not a large number. Those people are also not necessarily in a hurry to rush in and get a vaccine so it may be that appointments go unbooked and people go in when its convenient for them. That last 10%+ won’t be sitting on a website clicking repeatedly to refresh to try to get an appointment. They will trickle in slower.

 

[pixie225]

For the first time Long Island (NY) has a surplus of vaccines. Many places and dates open. Supposedly people are backing off from getting the vaccine due to nervousness over possible blood clots. However, even the state-run facilities (Aqueduct, Javits, Jones Beach) have many, many times and dates open (I checked out of curiosity) as early as today! And these are giving Pfizer/Moderna - not J and J.

 

[DisneyCane]

For the first time Long Island (NY) has a surplus of vaccines. Many places and dates open. Supposedly people are backing off from getting the vaccine due to nervousness over possible blood clots. However, even the state-run facilities (Aqueduct, Javits, Jones Beach) have many, many times and dates open (I checked out of curiosity) as early as today! And these are giving Pfizer/Moderna - not J and J.

Unfortunately, many people hear "vaccine" and "blood clot" and have no idea that there even are multiple vaccines available and that only one might have an extremely rare blood clot issue and isn't being given to anybody right now.

 

[GoofGoof]

We aren’t currently doing 2 million first shots per day. Been a while since we were even close to that.

I don’t know where to find the exact nationwide, but in NY, it’s now 50% first dose, 50% second dose. It’s my understanding that next week, it will be majority second dose.

Bloomberg reported 1.8 million total doses yesterday. Assuming the nationwide ratio is similar, that would be only about 900,000 first doses. (Tuesdays aren’t the heaviest reporting days, but we are unlikely to hit 2 million first doses even on a heavy day at this point).

If we stayed at that pace, it would take another 2 and a half months to catch up to Israel, but the pace is continuing to slow. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for by July.

You are cherry picking 1 day. The 7 day average is still over 3M. If I pick a day where we did 4M+ shots would that be reflective of the pace? No. The 7 day average is a much better number than picking a Sunday or Monday which have been the lowest days of the week for a while. Nationally the pace is still about 2 to 1 on first shots vs 2nd shots. A month ago we were hardly averaging a million first shots a day and you had to have a 1st shot to have a second one.

 

[ABQ]

Interesting opinion piece from a couple weeks ago on Bloomberg. Yes, opinion, not science, but intriguing to read things from different points of view.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[GoofGoof]

Great post. The "doom and gloom" people are assuming that just because appointments aren't being snapped up instantly it means that nobody else is going to get vaccinated. The reality is that there are different groups of people.

1) Wanted to be vaccinated ASAP. This group includes high risk (especially 65+) as well as lower risk people who are extremely concerned about possibly getting COVID.
2) Want to be vaccinated but aren't in a huge rush so will book appointments when convenient or head to a "no appointment necessary" site when they have some time.
3) Indifferent about being vaccinated. These people aren't anti-vax but can't be bothered to actively seek out a shot. If you set up a vaccination clinic at their job they'll probably take a shot. If you can walk into a pharmacy (especially at a grocery store or Walmart) and not have to wait, they'll get around to it. It will help if there is a gift card or something in return like the flu shot.
4) Anti-COVID vax people. These are the people who will not get vaccinated no matter what even if you force them and they will fight it if you try to force them.

There are still (based on polling) plenty of people left in group #2 and group #3 that will get vaccinated. They just aren't clamoring for it immediately or doing so in a manner that is snapping up all available doses each week.

Here are the FL percentages by age group that have begun vaccination through yesterday:

Age	% Vaccinated
16-24	15.6%​
25-34	21.6%​
35-44	31.1%​
45-54	39.4%​
55-64	56.1%​
65-74	83.7%​
75-84	83.3%​
85+	69.7%​
Total	37.8%​

65+ is at 81.7% combined. As it continues to creep up, I think that the 65-84 range will end up close to 90%.

Yes, we are now getting 28M doses a week delivered from Pfizer and Moderna which is enough doses to do 4M shots a day. We only exceeded 4M doses on a handful of days. The people desperate to be vaccinated have gone already. I saw a recent article which said in polling 1 in 3 Americans say they know at least 1 person who “cut the line” and got vaccinated before they were eligible. There are plenty of people left that want to be vaccinated but they aren’t desperate enough to cut the line or spend hours online searching for an appointment. In 7 states eligibility just opened for the general public and people are signing up but haven’t gone yet. There is going to be a decrease in pace of vaccinations which is not the doom and gloom that people here love to predict. Having appointments available doesn’t mean that nobody is signed up. If we have 4M appointments available a day and only 3M people sign up we still vaccinate 3M people a day. It doesn’t go to zero. Even if the pace drops to 2M a day that’s still not nothing.

Not sure why people are so desperate to see vaccines stall. Really bizarre to me. I want to believe that we are all in this together and that everyone wants this pandemic to end but I’m starting to think maybe some people are actually desperately hoping that it doesn’t. What a strange world we live in.

 

[danv3]

1) Wanted to be vaccinated ASAP. This group includes high risk (especially 65+) as well as lower risk people who are extremely concerned about possibly getting COVID.
2) Want to be vaccinated but aren't in a huge rush so will book appointments when convenient or head to a "no appointment necessary" site when they have some time.
3) Indifferent about being vaccinated. These people aren't anti-vax but can't be bothered to actively seek out a shot. If you set up a vaccination clinic at their job they'll probably take a shot. If you can walk into a pharmacy (especially at a grocery store or Walmart) and not have to wait, they'll get around to it. It will help if there is a gift card or something in return like the flu shot.
4) Anti-COVID vax people. These are the people who will not get vaccinated no matter what even if you force them and they will fight it if you try to force them.

Nothing we can really do about group #4 above, but if you have family or friends in group #2 or #3, try to encourage them to get vaccinated now. Having people vaccinated today rather than a month from now makes a difference for all of us.

 

[GoofGoof]

For the first time Long Island (NY) has a surplus of vaccines. Many places and dates open. Supposedly people are backing off from getting the vaccine due to nervousness over possible blood clots. However, even the state-run facilities (Aqueduct, Javits, Jones Beach) have many, many times and dates open (I checked out of curiosity) as early as today! And these are giving Pfizer/Moderna - not J and J.

I hope that’s not the case. If it is the reason they should immediately stop shipping doses to Long Island. There are plenty of places where people still want the vaccines.

I think it’s more likely you are just seeing a natural slow down. Assuming NY has roughly the same number of adults as the national average roughly 75% of the population is 18+ then roughly 60% of that group in NY has gotten at least 1 shot. If the polling is correct and roughly 71% of adults will eventually get the vaccine there are only a little over 10% of adults left to go. Once you get to that final 10% it’s not people who said they would get the vaccine as soon as available, they are the people who were on the fence 2 months ago. They will get a vaccine but they aren’t in a rush. There may be appointments available a lot of places, but they are waiting to book one on a Friday at the Rite Aid down the street vs driving to Aqueduct Racetrack on a Tuesday. My MIL drove over an hour to Brooklyn and payed to park in a garage (twice) to get her vaccine because she really wanted it. Many of the people left aren’t going to do something like that. During flu shot season you can pretty much go in to any pharmacy and get a flu shot and it seems like we are soon going to be at that level with Covid shots in a lot of places.

 

[DisneyCane]

Not sure why people are so desperate to see vaccines stall. Really bizarre to me. I want to believe that we are all in this together and that everyone wants this pandemic to end but I’m starting to think maybe some people are actually desperately hoping that it doesn’t. What a strange world we live in.

Just as there are people (like me) who believe that all mitigation measures should be lifted as soon as all who wish to be vaccinated have had the opportunity to do so (not actually did it but could have easily gotten a shot), there are people who for whatever reason want restrictions and rules to go on in perpetuity. I can understand people like me wanting to go back to normal, I don't understand people who feel the opposite and seem to want vaccinations to slow or halt.

 

[DisneyCane]

Something I was thinking about at the airport yesterday, have there been reports of disproportionate COVID outbreaks among airline pilots that I haven't seen?

As an aside, based on personal observations, air travel volume has increased significantly over the past three months. This week was the first time since pre-COVID that I observed significant security lines.

 

[JD80]

Just as there are people (like me) who believe that all mitigation measures should be lifted as soon as all who wish to be vaccinated have had the opportunity to do so (not actually did it but could have easily gotten a shot), there are people who for whatever reason want restrictions and rules to go on in perpetuity. I can understand people like me wanting to go back to normal, I don't understand people who feel the opposite and seem to want vaccinations to slow or halt.

This is a tricky thing. You can't do it too slow because people will take matters in their own hands and maybe do things too fast. Remove restrictions too quickly and the unvaccninated will take advantage and potentially create a public health crisis by spreading COVID.

It's easy to say to follow the science, it's another thing to toss in humans in to the equations that are often intentionally or unintentionally bad actors. I do not want to be in the CDC's shows when having to create public health guidance. Very easy to criticize them from your view point because you've got the shots, you know you'll be safe.

The CDC has to view it with the worst behavior in mind.

 

[GoofGoof]

We aren’t currently doing 2 million first shots per day. Been a while since we were even close to that.

I don’t know where to find the exact nationwide, but in NY, it’s now 50% first dose, 50% second dose. It’s my understanding that next week, it will be majority second dose.

Bloomberg reported 1.8 million total doses yesterday. Assuming the nationwide ratio is similar, that would be only about 900,000 first doses. (Tuesdays aren’t the heaviest reporting days, but we are unlikely to hit 2 million first doses even on a heavy day at this point).

If we stayed at that pace, it would take another 2 and a half months to catch up to Israel, but the pace is continuing to slow. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for by July.

Lets assume for a minute that the pace drops all the way to 2M doses a day on average and let’s assume it’s 50/50 first shot vs second. That’s still a million new first shots a day. At that pace we would reach 59% of Americans with 1 shot by June 11 which is where Israel is now. So 7 to 8 weeks as the worst case scenario. If pace doesn’t drop that fast it could be sooner.

Keep in mind also that kids 12+ will be eligible soon and those same adults that cut the line and ran out to get themselves a vaccine will be signing their teenage kids up.

 

[JD80]

My kids are 8 6 and 3. Can not wait for them to be able to get a vaccine.

 

[sullyinMT]

Interesting opinion piece from a couple weeks ago on Bloomberg. Yes, opinion, not science, but intriguing to read things from different points of view.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Thanks for sharing. This paragraph made me chuckle, since I missed a crucial comma at first:

“Yes, Joe, Rhode Islanders are still playing by the rules — and then some. Masks are everywhere — people wear them running and walking the dog and strolling on the beach.”

I wanna be on Joe Rhode Island (misspelling aside)!

 

[Patcheslee]

I don't think we are at the point of saying we've plateaued on vaccination due to hesitancy. We are a week into the J&J pause, which IMO effects the overall numbers and more so availability in areas reliant on it. Indiana breaks down their daily graph by 1st dose, completed 2 dose series, and J&J separately. Before the pause J&J accounted for 25-30% average of daily completed doses and 10-15% of total doses. Since then it has been a few sporadic reports of J&J daily doses that are obviously late to report. But we've dropped significantly on the average doses delivered. J&J pause put 2 of 4 sites in our county alone on idle because they haven't received a replacement vaccine.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Just as there are people (like me) who believe that all mitigation measures should be lifted as soon as all who wish to be vaccinated have had the opportunity to do so (not actually did it but could have easily gotten a shot), there are people who for whatever reason want restrictions and rules to go on in perpetuity. I can understand people like me wanting to go back to normal, I don't understand people who feel the opposite and seem to want vaccinations to slow or halt.

Yes, we are now getting 28M doses a week delivered from Pfizer and Moderna which is enough doses to do 4M shots a day. We only exceeded 4M doses on a handful of days. The people desperate to be vaccinated have gone already. I saw a recent article which said in polling 1 in 3 Americans say they know at least 1 person who “cut the line” and got vaccinated before they were eligible. There are plenty of people left that want to be vaccinated but they aren’t desperate enough to cut the line or spend hours online searching for an appointment. In 7 states eligibility just opened for the general public and people are signing up but haven’t gone yet. There is going to be a decrease in pace of vaccinations which is not the doom and gloom that people here love to predict. Having appointments available doesn’t mean that nobody is signed up. If we have 4M appointments available a day and only 3M people sign up we still vaccinate 3M people a day. It doesn’t go to zero. Even if the pace drops to 2M a day that’s still not nothing.

Not sure why people are so desperate to see vaccines stall. Really bizarre to me. I want to believe that we are all in this together and that everyone wants this pandemic to end but I’m starting to think maybe some people are actually desperately hoping that it doesn’t. What a strange world we live in.

If one of you kind gentlemen could direct me to any post or article that seems to think people want vaccines to stall.. or for that matter want rules of covid to go on in perpetuity as you both said.
Im really not hear to start any kind of squabble I just really like to read someone that feels that way. I’ve been following here along with you both and haven’t got that feeling at all.
Do some have worries that maybe there isn’t the demand for the vaccine as high as it should be? Sure. Do some say masks are a good thing that has not only helped with this pandemic but cut the flu and allergies down a lot and have stated they may still wear one when this whole thing is over with? Yep, I read that also. But I never thought the thinking in either of those was.. people want vaccines to stall or.. we should all wear masks every day after this. I guess when reading posts we all take things a lot differently then the next person.
I think 95 % or higher wants as many vaccines distributed as we can get.. lower restrictions and get back to as close as we had it before. If we continue to point out the outliers on both sides.. open everything now or everyone should stay indoors, we are playing the minority games of both sides.

 

[havoc315]

You are cherry picking 1 day. The 7 day average is still over 3M. If I pick a day where we did 4M+ shots would that be reflective of the pace? No. The 7 day average is a much better number than picking a Sunday or Monday which have been the lowest days of the week for a while. Nationally the pace is still about 2 to 1 on first shots vs 2nd shots. A month ago we were hardly averaging a million first shots a day and you had to have a 1st shot to have a second one.

That’s a lagging average. (Will likely drop below 3 million average by the end of the week, drop below 2.5 million by next week). And we are not at 2:1 nationally any more. Yes, we were a month ago, as the pace was increasing. That’s no longer the case, it’s now more like 1:1.
Soon, we will likely be at 1:2.

 

[Jrb1979]

One thing I have noticed is many places in the US have already dropped masks and social distancing restrictions already. That to me is concerning.

 

[havoc315]

Lets assume for a minute that the pace drops all the way to 2M doses a day on average and let’s assume it’s 50/50 first shot vs second. That’s still a million new first shots a day. At that pace we would reach 59% of Americans with 1 shot by June 11 which is where Israel is now.

Your math is slightly off.
Israel is at 59% of total population. US is at 41% of the population.
another 18% = 59,400,000 more people. If we do 1 million per day, without any further slow down, that would be 59 more days = June 19, best case scenario of reaching Israel’s current level. Problem is, if it keeps slowing even more.

My remaining hope is that maybe we can reach herd immunity at a lower level.. maybe reach it with 50% vaccination instead of 59%.

So 7 to 8 weeks as the worst case scenario. If pace doesn’t drop that fast it could be sooner.

Keep in mind also that kids 12+ will be eligible soon and those same adults that cut the line and ran out to get themselves a vaccine will be signing their teenage kids up.

 

[mmascari]

There are plenty of people left that want to be vaccinated but they aren’t desperate enough to cut the line or spend hours online searching for an appointment.

It's a perception thing. It shouldn't take any cutting or hours anymore. In my case, group 45+, really wanted the vaccine but super lazy, wasn't going to spend hours searching. The most effort I exerted was to preregister with the state and county when they finally said I was allowed. Then, just waited, and waited some more. The state sent me an appointment link, I signed up. The most I did was include the check box that I was a group 2C job (which was a 20 page list, almost everyone), and I had excessive work flexibility allowing me to pick anything. That last one isn't nothing and definitely made it easier. But, there were lots of choices. From the reports, we're pretty much at the "just sign up for anytime" now.

Not sure why people are so desperate to see vaccines stall. Really bizarre to me. I want to believe that we are all in this together and that everyone wants this pandemic to end but I’m starting to think maybe some people are actually desperately hoping that it doesn’t. What a strange world we live in.

We're not "desperate to see vaccines stall", we're upset that vaccine rates are stalling and that we're likely to not reach enough. It's not a desire for the pandemic to continue, it's disappointment that it's not going to end as soon as hoped. The truly bizarre part is that the groups that most want the pandemic and all mitigations to be over also seem like the groups least likely to get vaccinated. Not doing the one thing that would cause the other.

In my personal case, based on current stats, and the sage advice of my 11 year old. We're going to reschedule our August trip to June 2022. A date when they'll be 12 and vaccinated. Hearing the news, my 15 said "was waiting for that". From June 2020 to August 2020 to June 2021 to August 2021 and now to June 2022 as we try to predict the end of most mitigations and the return of the larger Disney value proposition. My airline tickets, fully paid for in January 2020, have vouchers valid until September 2022. Already have our personalized magic bands based on the first date, before they stopped doing that. We'll lose the included bus, but not a big deal. Now I need to find a trip that involves less eating out and something like mountain hikes for 2021.