Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[WDWTrojan]

Events where people have prolonged contact indoors. These were known from the start to be the worst.

Yes which includes bars, restaurants, churches, factories, parties, etc.

 

[GoofGoof]

Events where people have prolonged contact indoors. These were known from the start to be the worst for community spread.

Being in a bar with no mask or social distancing is a problem. Even an indoor restaurant with tables properly spaced is higher risk due to the lack of masks and time spent.

 

[Chi84]

Yes which includes bars, restaurants, churches, factories, parties, etc.

Hopefully the requirement of wearing masks outside at Disney won’t last long - provided they can maintain adequate social distancing.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Hopefully the requirement of wearing masks outside at Disney won’t last long - provided they can maintain adequate social distancing.

It is mandatory in Orange County.

 

[GoofGoof]

It is mandatory in Orange County.

Do we know what they plan to do with water parks? Masks can’t be worn in a pool or on a slide. How do they handle the mask requirement in those situations?

 

[Chi84]

It is mandatory in Orange County.

I didn’t mean today

 

[WDWTrojan]

Do we know what they plan to do with water parks? Masks can’t be worn in a pool or on a slide. How do they handle the mask requirement in those situations?

Are they opening? I know many of the CMs got called back but I think they are going to be at the parks instead.

 

[LSLS]

For what its worth, I've heard one hospital in Tampa now has all icu beds occupied.

 

[GoofGoof]

Are they opening? I know many of the CMs got called back but I think they are going to be at the parks instead.

I was thinking more Aquatica and Volcano Bay

 

[DisneyCane]

Being in a bar with no mask or social distancing is a problem. Even an indoor restaurant with tables properly spaced is higher risk due to the lack of masks and time spent.

I think we (myself included) need to stop making these types of declarations. There aren't enough scientific studies for even the experts to draw these types of conclusions with certainty.

Like I've said in the past, after over 100 years of study, the experts still don't know exactly how the flu spreads. It's still very educated guesses. Contrasted with something like HIV where they know exactly how it spreads.

All I know is that, at least in Florida, the cases did not increase when restaurants opened or even when personal services (salons, massage, etc.) reopened. They have started drastically increasing in the past few days. It seems like distanced restaurant dining rooms weren't an issue but something more recent was. Bars? Maybe. Young people deciding to have graduation parties? Possibly. The protests? Slight chance. Being outdoors in Florida heat and humidity makes it unlikely. Also, the spike in cases came significantly after the median incubation period when compared to the protest start.

The problem is that nobody is going to volunteer for a study where they set up a distanced dining room, invite uninfected people and then have a known positive person sitting at a table and see how many of the uninfected get infected. Without doing things like that, all studies are just trying to draw inferences by analyzing data trends.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

For what its worth, I've heard one hospital in Tampa now has all icu beds occupied.

But I thought hospitalizations in Florida were okay?? How could that happen in a major city?

/s

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Events where people have prolonged contact indoors. These were known from the start to be the worst for community spread.

An indoor line of 20 minutes is already a very bad idea.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

interesting.

 

[Chi84]

An indoor line of 20 minutes is already a very bad idea.

I don’t think it is if proper social distancing can be maintained. We need to be careful of protective measures but also be careful not to overreact.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think we (myself included) need to stop making these types of declarations. There aren't enough scientific studies for even the experts to draw these types of conclusions with certainty.

Like I've said in the past, after over 100 years of study, the experts still don't know exactly how the flu spreads. It's still very educated guesses. Contrasted with something like HIV where they know exactly how it spreads.

All I know is that, at least in Florida, the cases did not increase when restaurants opened or even when personal services (salons, massage, etc.) reopened. They have started drastically increasing in the past few days. It seems like distanced restaurant dining rooms weren't an issue but something more recent was. Bars? Maybe. Young people deciding to have graduation parties? Possibly. The protests? Slight chance. Being outdoors in Florida heat and humidity makes it unlikely. Also, the spike in cases came significantly after the median incubation period when compared to the protest start.

The problem is that nobody is going to volunteer for a study where they set up a distanced dining room, invite uninfected people and then have a known positive person sitting at a table and see how many of the uninfected get infected. Without doing things like that, all studies are just trying to draw inferences by analyzing data trends.

By that logic though nothing “definitely” spreads the virus so everything should be allowed. No restrictions at all. We don’t have the luxury of waiting for scientific studies to determine exactly what is and isn’t causing the most spread. We know how respiratory infections traditionally spread, we have years and years of knowledge. Decisions need to be made on our best educated guesses. It’s not a great leap to assume some of the same likely trouble spots including prolonged indoor exposure. This whole concept of not having definitive scientific studies is a convenient excuse to not restrict things. The only thing we know definitely is that full blown stay at home orders dramatically reduced the spread of this virus. Nobody wants to go back to that.

 

[Chi84]

By that logic though nothing “definitely” spreads the virus so everything should be allowed. No restrictions at all. We don’t have the luxury of waiting for scientific studies to determine exactly what is and isn’t causing the most spread. We know how respiratory infections traditionally spread, we have years and years of knowledge. Decisions need to be made on our best educated guesses. It’s not a great leap to assume some of the same likely trouble spots including prolonged indoor exposure. This whole concept of not having definitive scientific studies is a convenient excuse to not restrict things. The only thing we know definitely is that full blown stay at home orders dramatically reduced the spread of this virus. Nobody wants to go back to that.

People who are asking for additional studies are not necessarily looking for a convenient excuse not to restrict things. They are more likely looking for the information those studies will provide - so the decisions we make will be guided by knowledge instead of emotion.

 

[Flugell]

A quick thought for everyone on either side of the mask or no mask debate and irrespective of whether things are going well or badly:-
“In order to live life, you have to have life.”
Keep safe, do what is needed to keep others safe as much as your conscience will allow and one day we’ll meet, with no masks and being able to hold hands(!) in the most magical place on Earth! And the sooner the better!!

 

[legwand77]

For what its worth, I've heard one hospital in Tampa now has all icu beds occupied.

That is true, but the rest of the story is that hospital only has 4 icu beds. Overall the rest are still averaging around 20%. Hospitals work together to manage capacity. Still worth keeping an eye on.

 

[celluloid]

Congratulation on your child!

Even during the peak of the crisis Fathers were still allowed in (unless symptomatic or COVID+). There has never been restrictions on Father's being in the OR for C-sections, at least at our centre. They always sit in. This is basically the ONLY exception to the visitor policy though, so I don't know if it's a great anecdote. For obvious reasons even when things were really bad, both parents should be entitled to be at their child's birth.

Meanwhile grandparents are not allowed to see babies in NICU's for 3-4+ months for some of the micro-prems. Only one parents is allowed on site in Paediatrics. Adults are essentially not allowed visitors.

There might be slight regional variation of course, but we have 100x less cases right now than Florida. So I'd chalk it up to a heck of a lot of pretending on everyone's part that things are a-ok.

I don't think anyone was pretending everything was a-ok at the facility we were at. We felt we had great realistic care. They are just realistic. My wife was tested in the delivery room and came back a negative read. "temp screen entry" when we first checked in. They took precautions just as one should anyway with being near newborns. For everyone's added safety we wore masks as well. The only obvious miss I saw and often see anywhere with security checkpoints was the security guards sometimes not wiping bag bins that go through the x Ray machine.

Whether or not fathers are allowed for emergency procedures depend on the facility. Even emergency C sections can typically only have a father/support person back there if it is an epidural based anesthesia. If it is a general anesthesia there are more risks all around and it is typically going to be a no there.
The virus is real, but not an airborne plague.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Also none of those sources listed in that article are about the effectiveness of cloth masks, they are only about detailed the risk of presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission not about cloth mask effectiveness.

Not at all, just not junk science, that is looks pretty but is not real in any sense. Ever wonder why there hasn’t been any real fully fleshed out studies proving that masks are effective, it has been four months. But there are full fleshed out studies that prove they are not, that I link earlier up thread, published by WHO and NIOSH.

There have been multiple articles posted in this very thread about masks. (Granted, It's a very long thread.) Regardless, I found some by searching the Internet. It didn't take long. I'll save you some time and just quote myself.

There are studies that address non-95s. Here's one. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300117 and another https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117 and another https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v2 They all come to the same conclusion: wearing masks (even crappy homemade masks) should have a positive impact on mitigating the spread of the virus. No study is perfect, but at some point the accumulation of evidence outweighs the nitpicking that can be applied to any individual study.

Here is one study that attempts to assess that; it's been linked to before. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v2 A conservative assessment applied to the COVID-19 estimated R0 of 2.4 might posit 50% mask usage and a 50% mask efficacy level, reducing R0 to 1.35, an order of magnitude impact rendering spread comparable to the reproduction number of seasonal influenza. To put this in perspective, 100 cases at the start of a month becomes 31,280 cases by the month’s end (R0 = 2.4) vs. only 584 cases (R0 = 1.35). ...pessimistic regimes (e.g. due to poor implementation or population compliance) [that] nonetheless result in a beneficial effect in suppressing the exponential growth of the pandemic. -page 6 of the full article