GoofGoof
Premium Member
The only time flying around here is when I threw a Time magazine at my kids because they wouldn’t stop complaining about the Wifi lagging
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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October82
Well-Known Member
I think there's a misunderstanding here. The point of testing is not to tell people if they have Covid-19 - it is to isolate confirmed cases in order to reduce the spread to people who do not have it. What matters is the number of people tested as a fraction of the population, not the testing of any individual on a regular basis. Being able to tell someone that they have the virus so that they can seek medical care is a side effect of the testing.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
Ok but it you have no symptoms what is going to motivate you to get tested.? A known exposure? Most people are not going to need medical care.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Consider yourself lucky.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
If people come to the hospital with symptoms we test and isolate them. Are you suggesting going door to door and randomly testing people? I’m not sure that’s feasible and I’m not sure people would agree to it.
Yes, a known exposure. That is the objective of contact testing. You are notified via phone call, email or text message that you've come into contact with someone who has tested positive, so you are encouraged to get a test yourself so you can self quarantine.
This is literally something that has been going on for decades for other illnesses. In most places if you test positive for HIV, syphilis, TB, Hepatitis and other infections you provide a list of your intimate contacts so those people can be notified. This is just a much more ramped up version of that.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
They stopped people on the street in MA.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I guess so. It’s part of the job I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about it.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
We have a technology solution for that but Americans dismissed it outright before even taking the time to understand how it works. It’s too bad too because it had a lot of potential to revolutionize contact tracing and really knock down spread and hot spots.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
i believe the main strategy right now is more about whenever a flare up in a certain area is noticed, go into that community and test like crazy to see what’s going on...so you can stop the spread there. States are required to report to the feds on a county by county basis.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
A lot of people have privacy concerns with that.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
I think that’s a good strategy as long as it’s voluntary.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I know they do, it’s because they don’t know how it works, but I’m wasting my time talking about it because sadly it‘s not happening. It is the answer to the question of the best way of knowing who should be tested that doesn’t have symptoms.
October82
Well-Known Member
Again, you don't need complete testing of all infected cases. It would be easier if we could know in advance who to test or simply test everyone, but both aren't options. Testing a large fraction of the population (say, anyone known to be exposed to a case, suspects exposure, or who has flu/cold-like symptoms) along with contact tracing for positive cases is sufficient to turn the transmission rate negative. We're just not testing even close to that number.
What we do when transmission levels become "undetectable" is an important question and the one I think you're really asking. The problem is we're not near a point where it is a pressing one.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Is it really not happening?!?
October82
Well-Known Member
The long incubation time for the disease makes this really difficult. By the time you detect an outbreak, the outbreak has gone through several doubling times. So the amount of testing, contact tracing, isolation and healthcare resources you need is much larger than it would be with a relatively smaller amount of larger scale testing.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
YES. And I think the long incubation period slips from people's minds very quickly. I also think that many forget that those who die have already been sick for 4-5 weeks.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The app was released already the problem is over 60% of people say they won’t use it. 40% is better than nothing I guess but it won’t really work with that low a number.
Apple, Google Release Contact Tracing Technology for Mobile Apps
Apple and Google have released contact tracing technology that will allow public health mobile apps to notify users if they’ve potentially been exposed to an individual with COVID-19, the two companies announced on Wednesday. And according to at least one privacy expert, the new technology has...
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
then someone should ask Dr Birx about this because she was specifically talking about it today. This is her and their intention right now. May want to find this video from today and give it a peak. Maybe I missed some details. But this isn’t my idea.
In the last day or so I’ve read that test results for active infections and antibodies have been reported together. The Governor has reportedly denied it, and some sources claim it’s true. I have no idea what the truth is. It does make a difference when evaluating the data.
The link below is to a model I’ve been following. They are using gps data and using it to model the projected death rate. There is a lot of variability day to day, but it’s been fairly accurate predicting trends a few weeks out. When the state started to open up it pretty quickly adjusted and came pretty close to what appears to be our peak coming up. I’ll be curious to see what it shows for Orlando when the parks open.
US Dashboard
covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu
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