Comparing Crowd Calendars?

[GrumpyFan]

I've been an avid fan of Touringplans and the Unofficial Guide to WDW for quite a while, love their podcast too!
Recently, I found EasyWDWs site and their crowd calendars, but noticed that a trip we have planned in May has some very drastic differences in the recommended parks for days.

For example: May 14th
Touringplans says HS=1, EP=2, MK=3, AK=4 (lower being better)
Easy WDW doesn't give numbers, but has an overall level of 5, and recommends MK, EP & AK, but not HS.

In the end, I know it's just a prediction, but I'm still curious to others' thoughts.

So, the question is:
Has anyone else looked at, used or compared these two?
In your opinion, which one tends to be more accurate?
And, how much faith do put in them?

My gut says that Touringplans would be more accurate based on the fact that they have people in the parks and a good history of tracking. However, I've been burned by their forecast before.

 

[stevehousse]

There r 3 or 4 sites with good crowd calendars and I usually look at all of them and compare which seem more accurate than the others. It always seems like most r te same and u will find one that is completely different!

 

[NYwdwfan]

I always figure that the best bet is sometimes the opposite of what those calendars say - being that if EVERYONE planning on the internet goes where the crowds are supposed to be light, it would make the crowds heave there and light somewhere else by default!

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

I have never used touringplans, it seems so popular that I wonder if they tell everyone MK will be the least crowded on Tuesday, so will more people go on Tuesday because of it, making it more crowded than predicted, Idk?!?!
I use Undercover Tourist and Easy WDW.

I would assume, Easy WDW does not recommend HS on that day because it has morning EMH hours and parks tend to be more crowded on those days.

 

[Clamman73]

I don't see how touringplans is giving it a 1 on an extra morning hours day.

 

[Weather_Lady]

Easy WDW takes a practical approach, and usually explains in detail why the recommendations are what they are, and has certain "rules" about why certain parks are recommended in certain circumstances (e.g., "MK is always busy on Mondays and should be avoided then," "a park that had evening EMH the night before is likely to be less crowded the following day and is generally more highly-recommended on that day"). Touringplans takes a more "statistical" approach, based more on crowds the previous year than on the park hours/EMH calendar, and which uses wait times for certain attractions as a large part of the 10-point scale. (For that reason, you'll see that certain parks on the touringplans scale almost ALWAYS appear "less crowded" than other parks -- on our upcoming trip if we just went with the lowest numbers, Epcot/HS would be the "best parks" every day and we'd never see MK or AK at all! What's more important is to look at what days at MK/AK have the lowest numbers across the week, visit on those days if desired, and then fill in the rest with the parks that are habitually less crowded.) Obviously, their 10-point crowd scales are not comparable either, and touringplans has recently revamped its scale for various reasons I don't understand (you can read the details there - statistical analysis is all Greek to me).

I utilize both of these sites, but if it's not a peak crowd time of year, I routinely disregard the "recommended park" advice of one or both sites if it's not convenient for my family's touring style. One thing upon which both of those sites agree: a good touring plan is FAR more important to a successful day at Disney World than picking the "best park" to visit.

 

[fbp]

I go with Easy because he seems like a kindhearted surly gentleman living on the the right side of the fringe of alcoholism.

 

[Weather_Lady]

I have never used touringplans, it seems so popular that I wonder if they tell everyone MK will be the least crowded on Tuesday, so will more people go on Tuesday because of it, making it more crowded than predicted, Idk?!?!
I use Undercover Tourist and Easy WDW.

I would assume, Easy WDW does not recommend HS on that day because it has morning EMH hours and parks tend to be more crowded on those days.

Don't worry! Although such sites are popular among people like us, not nearly enough people utilize these tools to cause a "bump" in attendance at a park they recommend.

 

[GrumpyFan]

Don't worry! Although such sites are popular among people like us, not nearly enough people utilize these tools to cause a "bump" in attendance at a park they recommend.

I've heard @lentesta say that he estimates less than one percent of the people visiting on a daily basis use their crowd calendar. So, the effect is likely quite minimal.

 

[PARichards]

I utilize both of these sites, but if it's not a peak crowd time of year, I routinely disregard the "recommended park" advice of one or both sites if it's not convenient for my family's touring style. One thing upon which both of those sites agree: a good touring plan is FAR more important to a successful day at Disney World than picking the "best park" to visit.

I am so relieved to read this! I didn't find EZWDW until AFTER DH and I had agreed on a general itinerary & ADRs, which he is now reluctant to change, AND after revisiting the reasons why we chose which park to visit on a given day, our choices held up against EZWDWs park recommendations. (Our ADR times, we now understand are a little unrealistic based on some things we want to see, so that *is* changing, where we can manage it.) However, we will be there Sept. 7-11, and, aside from not knowing a thing about crowd calendars when DH and I started planning, we figured that as long as we had a good (touring) plan(s) within the parks, we'd be free to have a great/productive day wherever we chose to go. Now off to research for those touring plans...

 

[KCheatle]

I usually look at undercovertourist.com for my crowd information. And, then I use common sense. I figure out where it's going to be "most" packed based on where there's evening EMH. If there's evening EMH at a park, we don't go to that park. My kids don't stay up late enough to take advantage of evening EMH.

If there's morning EMH, we go at rope drop and take advantage of being there even earlier. I think a lot of people sleep in at WDW and don't take advantage of morning EMH. We are not those people. We early risers, nappers, and early "to bed-ers"

 

[cw1982]

How accurate are any of these sites, though, and do any of them have a reputation for being more accurate than the others? I've been using touringplans a lot lately to play with my schedule for the week of our trip, and I was a bit surprised that the parks aren't expected to be busier on the days I picked for each one than what they are. MK was the worst, with an expected 7 on the day of our arrival, but since we will be staying late for the evening EMH I'm not so worried about that. HS was expected to have a much lower crowd than I thought, given that the day we are going there is for evening EMH as well (maybe because it's the middle of the week between two Star Wars weekends?) If touringplans's estimates are close to accurate, we'll be in pretty good shape.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Using an actual touring plan is much more important than these numbers. You can still visit the most crowded park and get a ton done with the proper plan.

 

[HouCuseChickie]

I started using Easy's crowd calendar after Touring Plans' let me down with their crowd predictions 2 trips in a row. We had a trip in 2011- Touring Plans indicated the crowd level was a 9, but they never felt more than a 4. Obviously, this worked in our favor since a 4 is much more comfortable no matter how you approach it, but I decided I wouldn't be paying for Touring Plans again. I also LOVE reading the posts on Easy's site....really entertaining stuff most of the time and really on point with a lot of the smaller changes

 

[Kuzcotopia]

I used Touring Plans last year during the first week of January, and their MK predictions we're way off. They predicted a 6 and it was a 9.8.

This time, we're just going to either rope drop or do a pre-opening breakfast every day, and stay away from EMH all together.

With a mid-day break away from the parks for naps/pool, and using FP+ in the afternoons, I think that's all we'll need to plan for to enjoy the vacation.

 

[lentesta]

I know every calendar uses a 1-10 scale, but different numbers could mean the same wait times. A 3 on someone's calendar could equate to a 5 on someone else's. Might be this is what's happening.

The first thing I'd check, @GrumpyFan, is the same day last year, just to see if the predictions are in the ballpark. DHS was a 2 on our 1-to-10 scale, even with morning EMHs. MK was a 2, AK was a 3, EP was a 3. Again, on our 1-10 scale.

If you want to see attraction-by-attraction wait times, every 5 minutes, from DHS last year, try this.

You can see how we did "yesterday", every day, here. That shows the posted and actual waits from MDE and from our users, graphed against our expectations.

 

[lentesta]

I used Touring Plans last year during the first week of January, and their MK predictions we're way off. They predicted a 6 and it was a 9.8.

I'm sorry to hear that. We rebuilt all of the technology behind the crowd calendar and released a new one in November 2013. I'd love to make this up to you. Send me an email (len@touringplans) if you're interested.

 

[LAKid53]

Being a frequent flyer at DWD, I've learned from experience what day of the week is best for each park - avoid MK on Monday, EPCOT on Friday and avoid a park if it is an anniversary - which I learned the hard way last year at AK on Earth Day AND the 15th anniversary. And unless you've gone completely insane, NEVER EVER GO TO WDW THE WEEK BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEARS, NO MATTER HOW MUCH THE KIDS BEG YOU TO GO. And as a Florida resident, I also know that only the truly crazy people go to Orlando in July & August - we avoid the whole summer season - mid-June to Labor Day -for that reason.

Which is why we are going the week after Easter, because I've gone insane - but it's a birthday celebration and we always go that week.

 

[Kuzcotopia]

I'm sorry to hear that. We rebuilt all of the technology behind the crowd calendar and released a new one in November 2013. I'd love to make this up to you. Send me an email (len@touringplans) if you're interested.

Thanks for replying. Didn't mean to sound too negative about it. I really liked your services.

I did very much enjoy building a custom touring plan, and especially have the wait times, etc. calculate. It was alot of fun to play with, and I would recommend it to anyone.

We only had two days last trip, so I was very interested in maxing the time we had. This time we have seven during a less busy period, and aren't too worried about it. Thanks!