• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

Comcast ready to make a new All Cash bid for Fox - May 8th, 2018

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
#1
http://deadline.com/2018/05/comcast-prepares-unsolicited-offer-fox-1202384424/

>>Comcast, after being spurned in its initial pursuit of 21st Century Fox, apparently is preparing to challenge Disney’s $52.4 billion deal to acquire most of the studio’s film and TV assets, according to reports.

Reuters reports that Comcast is speaking with investment bankers about obtaining bridge financing for an all-cash offer. It’s waiting for a federal judge to issue a ruling next month in the Justice Department’s challenge to the AT&T-Time Warner merger before making its move, the news organization says.


Media analyst Rich Greenfield predicted Comcast would make another run at Fox, in part because the deal would give Disney “unprecedented control” over the legacy media landscape. The combined film studios account for more than 40% of the domestic box office, and Disney’s control of ESPN and Fox’s regional sports networks would give it serious leverage in negotiations with pay TV companies. This calculus doesn’t even take into account the competitive threat of the tech giants, which have direct relationships with consumers and billions to spend on content.<<

>>Comcast formally notified European Commission today of its plans to bid for Sky, starting the clock on a regulatory review. It also disclosed details of its approximately $30 billon bid in its recent quarterly earnings report.<<
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
#2
Advertisement
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-crash-disney-fox-deal-sources-idUSKBN1I82I7

>>(Reuters) - U.S. cable operator Comcast Corp is asking investment banks to increase a bridge financing facility by as much as $60 billion so it can make an all-cash offer for the media assets that Twenty-First Century Fox Inc has agreed to sell to Walt Disney Co for $52 billion, three people familiar with the matter said on Monday.<<
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
#6
I hope the Disney-Fox deal goes through and without Disney having to increase its offer.
It will depend on what happens to the Disney stock price. Profits in the April to June quarter will again set a record. In the same quarter in 2017 total movie revenue was 2.393 billion. So far this year Infinity War is over 1.8 billion alone. Add in the finishing numbers from Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time and then think about Sooo and Incredibles 2. Disney's stock price will be higher. Is it enough to get the stock to 118.40 needed to equal Comcasts offer I dont think so. However since Fox has to pay Disney 1.5 billion to back out the offer should actually be considered 58.5 billion so the break even Disney stock price is 115.44. That is 11.075% higher than Friday's closing price 103.93. Disney stock should easily be above that by closing but not July 2018. Maybe Disney could improve the offer and make it 0.2745 shares of stock for each share of Fox but guarantee if the value of Disney stock does not equal Comcasts offer that they will receive the difference in cash. In my opinion the actual value Fox shareholders will receive is well over Comcasts 60 billion in late 2019.
 

Twilight_Roxas

Well-Known Member
#7
It will depend on what happens to the Disney stock price. Profits in the April to June quarter will again set a record. In the same quarter in 2017 total movie revenue was 2.393 billion. So far this year Infinity War is over 1.8 billion alone. Add in the finishing numbers from Black Panther and Wrinkle in Time and then think about Sooo and Incredibles 2. Disney's stock price will be higher. Is it enough to get the stock to 118.40 needed to equal Comcasts offer I dont think so. However since Fox has to pay Disney 1.5 billion to back out the offer should actually be considered 58.5 billion so the break even Disney stock price is 115.44. That is 11.075% higher than Friday's closing price 103.93. Disney stock should easily be above that by closing but not July 2018. Maybe Disney could improve the offer and make it 0.2745 shares of stock for each share of Fox but guarantee if the value of Disney stock does not equal Comcasts offer that they will receive the difference in cash. In my opinion the actual value Fox shareholders will receive is well over Comcasts 60 billion in late 2019.
Disney also has Ant-Man & Wasp, and Wreck-It Ralph 2 coming soon as well.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
#8
This is slightly off topic but is of interest to all companies.

The court cases over media mergers can have a significant change in corporate control of Comcast. In the CBS Viacom merger proposal, the CBS board decided to dilute the power of the National Amusement. This will be litigated and hopefully the court will rule having two classes of stock and voting power is wrong and should not be allowed. It is doubtful the will go that far but it should and if it did it would have a major effect on Comcast and the Robert's dictatorial control of Comcast. Disney does not have this problem and that is also one of the reasons the Murdoch's did not like the Comcast original offer. All stockholders should be treated the same and have the same voting power.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
#9
http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-ct-fi-fox-disney-comcast-20180523-story.html

>>
Analysts speculated that the price for the Fox assets — which include the prolific 20th Century Fox film and television studios, 22 regional sports networks, FX and National Geographic channels — just increased by at least $10 billion.

That is because Comcast's bid is expected to top $60 billion, an amount that probably will force Disney to up its ante — a prospect that Fox investors probably would welcome.

"Disney is in a strong position to compete with a higher bid from Comcast," media analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a report Wednesday. "We would expect Disney to match that higher bid with $10 billion in cash added in to its existing deal."<<

>>
Fox executives rejected Comcast's bid, which was 16% higher than Disney's, because they believed that the chances of regulatory approval were better for Disney. In addition, the Disney deal would turn Fox shareholders, including Murdoch and his family, into Disney shareholders. The Murdoch family would become one of Disney's largest individual shareholders, with about 5% of the company's stock.

Both combinations probably would trigger considerable regulatory scrutiny. Disney and Fox, combined, would control about 40% of the domestic box office because Disney has churned out so many blockbusters in recent years.

In addition, Disney already bills itself as the "worldwide leader in sports" because of its majority stake in the sports juggernaut ESPN. Adding Fox's 22 regional sports networks, including Fox Sports West and Prime Ticket in the Los Angeles region, could trigger antitrust concerns.<<
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
#12
While Disney buying the FOX assets is a decent bet, they WILL have to increase the bid.

No way will the Murdoch's not demand more from Disney.
Disney will not make any change to their offer until weeks after their next quarterly report. Disney stock is undervalued and even with 2 movie bombs will report their best quarter ever. They will also have to give some more information on the ESPN app so their stock will jump. I dont think it will make it to the breakeven point needed of Disney stock price of 118.40 to equal Comcasts 60 billion dollar price. But if it's close all Disney has to do is guarantee their offer will exceed or beat Comcasts offer with a Cash payment of the difference if its lower than Comcasts offer at closing. In fact I strongly believe that Disney stock will be between 120 and 130 by next Summer and at that price Disney's offer is between 61 and 66 billion. It is Comcasts offer that actually undervalues Fox.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
#14
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/com...on-wednesday-if-att-time-warner-approved.html

>>
Comcast is preparing to announce bid for Fox on Wednesday if AT&T-Time Warner is approved, sources say



  • Comcast will formalize its all-cash bid for Fox's assets on Wednesday if AT&T's bid for Time Warner is approved, sources say.
  • Comcast executives think Disney's stock will fall if AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner is approved because Disney will have to prepare for a bidding war.
  • Comcast has already acknowledged it is in the advanced stages of preparing an all-cash rival bid.<<
Much more at the link.
 
#16
The press is reporting that Disney may have to add cash to its offer to match the new Comcast all cash offer. However, if DIS stock price continues to increase (up to $108 today), the amount of additional cash would need to be lower.
 
Top Bottom