Clear indication attendance projections are down

[CaptainAmerica]

As a TA I've never had a problem getting discounts for my clients, but this fall, it's been hard. I have to believe the number of people they are letting take advantage of the discount offer has been reduced, plus with the small % off of rooms for the late fall makes me think, they are not hurting for guests this fall.

Two different things. The softness in attendance is not reflected in resort occupancy, which has been very strong. Expect relatively few discounts on rooms and packages. I think the discounts we're likely to see, at least until Avatar opens, will be ticket-only offers geared towards Florida residents.

 

[Finallyinflorida]

This is probably the most accurate comment on this thread. Election years are always down in profit for most businesses.

My week in early December jumped from 2s and 3s to 7-9s. I don't understand it either!

i hate to sound ignorant, but where do you check to see the attendance predictions? i know there are lot of sites, but is there a specific one that is really reliable? I'm looking for the week of nov 1-6. As pass holders, we go quite a bit throughout the year, but seeing all this, id kinda like to see some numbers. thanks

 

[wdwfan22]

i hate to sound ignorant, but where do you check to see the attendance predictions? i know there are lot of sites, but is there a specific one that is really reliable? I'm looking for the week of nov 1-6. As pass holders, we go quite a bit throughout the year, but seeing all this, id kinda like to see some numbers. thanks

Most are probably using Touring plans, but I have found them to be more inaccurate then accurate.

 

[mikenatcity1]

Hope I don't get flamed for saying this, but I would actually love if attendance is down during my visit next month. I remember going the first week of December 2007 and on that particular trip the ONLY ride that we had any significant wait for was SOARIN at EPCOT. But we were still able to ride that 3 times. I took a picture of the Spaceship Earth ride at EPCOT saying "0 minute" standby wait. AK, MK, and HS also were a cake walk to ride anything. I can only hope for another such trip!

I do always try to go during the value season and when kids are in school.

I'm with you on this- the last few visits have been so busy for me, it turned me off the parks for a while- the though on not having to wait 30min for HM or 45 min for PotC or possibly to actually get on Mine Train makes me happy

 

[21stamps]

i hate to sound ignorant, but where do you check to see the attendance predictions? i know there are lot of sites, but is there a specific one that is really reliable? I'm looking for the week of nov 1-6. As pass holders, we go quite a bit throughout the year, but seeing all this, id kinda like to see some numbers. thanks

I use undercover tourist and touring plans, compare the 2, and then expect the average. I'm not a subscriber to touring plans, but a friend of mine is and sent me the screen shots of my week.

 

[mgpan]

Occupancy rates are high, but is lower available inventory playing a part in those numbers being high?

 

[21stamps]

Occupancy rates are high, but is lower available inventory playing a part in those numbers being high?

Why would there be lower inventory available?

 

[Tom P.]

Incorrect. The promotions you're talking about are much more important to fill beds than to fill the parks. Room occupancy has been extremely strong despite the attendance decline, meaning they don't have enough available beds to make promotions like that work. Targeted attendance efforts would probably have to come from cast members, pass holders, and Florida residents.

I disagree about room attendance. Disney has been offering room discounts that they historically would never have offered before, except in periods of attendance decline. I see lots of evidence that their room bookings are soft, as well as their attendance numbers. I expect to see many more discounts targeted at filling rooms in 2017.

 

[21stamps]

I disagree about room attendance. Disney has been offering room discounts that they historically would never have offered before, except in periods of attendance decline. I see lots of evidence that their room bookings are soft, as well as their attendance numbers. I expect to see many more discounts targeted at filling rooms in 2017.

What time of year? There are not any discounts for my December week (or for when I will be there in November, but I expected that one due to Thanksgiving) when historically there have been discounts every year recently, and that week was also excluded from 'free dining'. The monorail resorts have been pretty much booked solid for that week since early Spring, which was very surprising for me. It's an off week- between Thanksgiving and Christmas break.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I disagree about room attendance. Disney has been offering room discounts that they historically would never have offered before, except in periods of attendance decline. I see lots of evidence that their room bookings are soft, as well as their attendance numbers. I expect to see many more discounts targeted at filling rooms in 2017.

K well you're wrong, so it doesn't matter what you "expect to see." Occupancy is up around 90% at the domestic parks. In a past call, they said they consider anything above 85% to be about as close to full occupancy as they're ever going to get due to the timing of when people check in and check out. Rates are also up, meaning less discounting. Just because they announce offers doesn't mean they're offering the same amount of inventory at those discounted rates.

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/

 

[RSoxNo1]

Do you think maybe they should have been more aggressive with new attractions in the parks over the last 11 years and less aggressive in raising prices? Call it a shot in the dark, but perhaps that's finally catching up to them?

 

[trampdog]

WDW doesn't just decided at the last minute to provide a gesture like this for no reason.

Attendance is down and revenue is suffering. It's the reason Iger didn't mention domestic Parks and Resorts in his last quarterly update. It's the reason there's a Passholder $79 ticket until September 30 as well. There's a reason Cast Member block out dates were lifted for the first weekends for Food and Wine. All the Florida Resident block out dates that were lifted in the Spring and Summer. Hell, even Night of Joy and Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Parties haven't had a sell out yet.

Fiscal year ends the same time the tickets and discounts end. Do the math, there's no other correlation or causation.

Take a look at the operating hours in October. I am mentioning this because I am always there the same time every year (past 20 years). They have fluctuated over that time, but for the past six years all of the parks have always been open later (Halloween party excluded). This year, all of the parks close early, even when the party is not on. I'd say thatch a good indicator and I'll let you know in 40 days.

 

[21stamps]

Take a look at the operating hours in October. I am mentioning this because I am always there the same time every year (past 20 years). They have fluctuated over that time, but for the past six years all of the parks have always been open later (Halloween party excluded). This year, all of the parks close early, even when the party is not on. I'd say thatch a good indicator and I'll let you know in 40 days.

Haven't the hits been changing around 3-4 weeks, at most, before the month? I remember people freaking out, cursing, and threatening to cancel in May- with June travel dates. Those hours did change.

 

[trampdog]

Haven't the hits been changing around 3-4 weeks, at most, before the month? I remember people freaking out, cursing, and threatening to cancel in May- with June travel dates. Those hours did change.

This would be new for them. In the past I have usually had more than three or four months notice. Since I attend a conference at this time, I have to plan my park visit around "work" hours .

 

[wdw47]

I'm not sure if anyone else has gotten more emails about "coming back" but I've gotten three of these since May.

 

[NearTheEars]

Why would there be lower inventory available?

I have no direct knowledge of operations, but others here have said WDW often takes blocks of rooms out of service, lowering inventory and artificially raising the occupancy number.

 

[21stamps]

This would be new for them. In the past I have usually had more than three or four months notice. Since I attend a conference at this time, I have to plan my park visit around "work" hours .

That hasn't been the case this year. Unfortunately.

 

[21stamps]

I have no direct knowledge of operations, but others here have said WDW often takes blocks of rooms out of service, lowering inventory and artificially raising the occupancy number.

That wouldn't make sense at this point. Why would they do that on resorts that have been booked since spring? I can't extend a night, I'm sure other people would like to stay during that time as well, and some (like me) may not go at all if they can't get the resort they want.

View attachment 157394 I'm not sure if anyone else has gotten more emails about "coming back" but I've gotten three of these since May.

Did you get a pin code with that? Or it's just showing you current offers? I got a lot of those after my trip last year, sadly no pin code though

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I’ve heard that the numbers of off property guests has dropped off quite a bit this summer. The on property guest has been fairly even, a dip but a small-ish percentage. I’ve gotten the same reports from Universal people that their overall numbers are down as well. I’m inclined to believe them because the twice I’ve been over to Uni it’s been quieter than I’ve seen it in the summer since Harry Potter became a thing there.

What surprised me (but in retrospect it shouldn’t have) was what both groups said they think one of the major causes was: the Rio Olympics. There has been a fraction of the usual South American tourist and tour groups this year. And after someone pointed that out I realized I’d only seen maybe 4-5 tour groups all Summer thus far when I normally encounter 2-3 a day at MK.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

All personal opinion - I'm not right, no one else is wrong....

This ENTIRE "population number" concept has confused me. How is WDW doing on NET INCOME? Just WDW, JUST the Parks.

Again - just us.... if there were HALF the crowd and INCOME was consistent? Pretty sure WDW would be happy - and WE would be dancing down Main Street . Yes, we GET that it would cost more.....

Again, All personal opinion - I'm not right, no one else is wrong....