Rental cars are always cheapest 30-60 days in advance. We've found budget and Alamo to be the cheapest decent ones. Case in point, we have a full size for 10 days in august for $231. Several months ago that price was more like $500. And closer to the time, the price will shoot up again.
Don't bother with the rental insurance. If you must, get a AmEx. They have an add on insurance rental product for $20 a rental period for which you can sign up and which covers most of what the rental car companies would charge.
By not getting the insurance you may be saving yourself money in the short term, but if you have an accident the company will charge you a daily rental rate for the vehicle until it is fixed which could be a month or so.
You just have to balance out the risks. If you have your own auto insurance, you are likely covered for liability which is where the truly expensive things (hit a person, etc). Everything else is relatively small potatos. (Less than 50k)
Then your own auto insurance again may cover some of the auto damage to your car and the other car.
Finally, in some cases the credit card may cover some auto damage. We use an Amex and they have an added on option to make the credit card coverage primary, not secondary to your own insurance. You pay a very small fee for this option.
You are correct, depending on the accident they might try to stick you with one or more of several fees. Reports are mixed in how often this successfully takes place, but an internet review shows that typically it is 700 or 800$. Now I estimate that we've saved at least 5 thousand $ over 25 years of not paying those fees.
So I would characterize it differently. You might save short term if you pay the rental insurance fees AND get into an accident. But in the long term you will save by not paying those fees.
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