Well, I don't think he's gonna win, of course. It's a family/action movie and they only award dramas and such. And besides, it's been said that Bill Murray really deserves to nail it. It's gonna be a first, I think, since he's a comedian. But the nominations alone, especially best actor and visual effects are gonna do wonders for the movie.
The same goes for Brother Bear. Since Hollywood has forgotten that 2D=animation, I don't think it stands a chance, but I thought it was light-years better than Nemo (probable winner).