Hi - an odd question likely, but has any one worked out the math to determine when the years to expiration truely begin to negatively impact the resale value? If I’m being unclear, I think at some point the value of a point will drop due to is closing in on its valueless date. The numbers right now don’t seem to show that happening, with them going up beyond inflation regardless of the shrinking lifespan. This type of finance is beyond me, so any thoughts would be cool to hear, as well as maybe informative (we’re in the rent out vs use phase due to our aging and current dissatisfaction and I’m trying to figure out if we should sell and stay on cash occasionally, or keep renting our points out thinking we may use them again like we used to if the future). We’re BCV members. THANKS!
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Best year to sell?
- Thread starter Mousse'
- Start date
SteveAZee
Well-Known Member
I don't know if most people would do the math before buying, but it's easy enough to project, using the buy-in price along with projected annual dues, what it will cost for a given accommodation for the rest of the life's contract. Then, compare it to a cash version of the same room type and time of year, and see what that costs. At some point, the cost savings of the DVC contract aren't worth the trouble of buying and owning DVC. It's clear we're not there yet, but as a guess there'll be a turning point for the 2042 contracts in 5 to 10 years. Just my opinion.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately we don't quite know and in some ways may not actually know through this cycle. There is probably going to be downward pressure on contracts again with interest rates. So that may cover up the fact the actual peaks was 15 years, for example.
The way the contracts were priced at the 20-year interval (particularly the direct pricing) there is questionable long term benefit over renting points. That to me seems like an indication of the inflexion point.
I do think under 10 years we'll see rapid price deescalation of 6-10$ per point until the contract runs to zero. However, there could be a 4-7$ decline that starts at 20 years or a 5-8$ at 15.
Personally, I would target 20 years and definitely definitely would pull the trigger to sell by 15.
The way the contracts were priced at the 20-year interval (particularly the direct pricing) there is questionable long term benefit over renting points. That to me seems like an indication of the inflexion point.
I do think under 10 years we'll see rapid price deescalation of 6-10$ per point until the contract runs to zero. However, there could be a 4-7$ decline that starts at 20 years or a 5-8$ at 15.
Personally, I would target 20 years and definitely definitely would pull the trigger to sell by 15.
It’s already baked in fairly appropriately based on my math.
The cheapest resorts are the ones that expire before 2057. The increases on those resorts have been much slower than the increases on others expiring 2060+. BWV would easily be $160 with a different expiration date.
BCV is uniquely illogically priced among DVC resorts, so asking how to math anything related to it is like asking about the intrinsic value of a diamond or a NFT.
The cheapest resorts are the ones that expire before 2057. The increases on those resorts have been much slower than the increases on others expiring 2060+. BWV would easily be $160 with a different expiration date.
BCV is uniquely illogically priced among DVC resorts, so asking how to math anything related to it is like asking about the intrinsic value of a diamond or a NFT.