Attendance down

[fosse76]

There's no question the economy is weak, for a variety of reasons - not the least of which is that the media has been telling us for almost a year that we're headed for recession.

But as an earlier poster said, we have yet to experience the conditions that economically define a recession, though we still could.

Unemployment from 1948 to 2005 averaged 6.8%. Our current rate is 5.7%. Not exactly a depression.

I hate the use of percentages, because they aren't equal. 5.7% of today's population is a LOT MORE than 6.8% of even 2005's population. So while the percentage may have gone down, the ACTUAL number of people who are out of work increased. Also, the government determines that percentage based in part on the no. of people collecting unemployment...but you can only collect it for so long. When it runs out, they don't count you as unemployed. So I wouldn't use the unemployment rate as a justification for the strength of the economy.

Since the July lows, the stock market has risen about 9%. This may or may not be temporary.

I'll avoid your phrase "pure ignorance", but say only that your data is stale. Yes, the Canadian $ reached and exceeded parity with the US $ but has been falling pretty dramatically for a month (along with all other major currencies). The Canadian is now worth slightly over .93.

Only as of the last week did it stabilize. I admit I didn't check today before I made the post, but still the fact that the dollar is so weak against even the Canadian dollar is telling.

Besides, currency fluctuations are largely a function of the interest rate environments in the respective countries, not the health of a given economy.

True. I just read today that because the British didn't increase their interest rates that the dollar is stronger (or they didn't do something and it had a positive effect on our dollar).

I agree that people are modifying their behavior, no question. I know I have.

The rise of oil to $147 bbl is an inarguable fact of life, and people have to adjust to that. But as we speak, oil is below $115 bbl, about a 30% selloff, and that's a huge change. If the bubble has truly burst on oil, then hopefully this economic downturn will be very short.

Personally, I think it has more to do with the fact that demand has dropped significantly (and if you want conspiracy theories, the oil execs. are having a hard time explaining how they can have yet another period of record breaking profits when demand is siginificantly lower).

Personally, I think part of the reason our economy hasn't really collapsed is that we live in such a selfish time, where people really aren't willing to sacrifice frivilous spending in any significant way. It's even easy to forget that we are even in a war, because people in general are more interested in themselves than about anything else. And of course, there is a huge influx of foreign tourism that is offsetting a lot of domestic spending in large cities and tourist destinations. I doubt we'll get to a text-book definition of recession...we'll see what happens I guess.

 

[Polyman]

Believe it - attendance is down. Not putting nearly as many cars in the Epcot lots this summer compared to last. Also, because of large crowd levels during the summer, Disney blocks out the 20% CM dining discounts and the 50% Holiday Celebration dining discounts. Company email sent yesterday announced the block out has been suspended until August 28th, when the newest free dining plan kicks in for guests. Previous poster is correct about ADR's. Disney is looking for people to eat at their restaurants.

 

[disneychic71]

I thought that part of the reason for cutting fantasmic was to get crowds to visit American Idol.

It won't work on me though. Until I see a big dragon shooting fire at American Idol I won't be attending

Funny!

 

[scottnj1966]

Believe it - attendance is down. Not putting nearly as many cars in the Epcot lots this summer compared to last. Also, because of large crowd levels during the summer, Disney blocks out the 20% CM dining discounts and the 50% Holiday Celebration dining discounts. Company email sent yesterday announced the block out has been suspended until August 28th, when the newest free dining plan kicks in for guests. Previous poster is correct about ADR's. Disney is looking for people to eat at their restaurants.

Then why cant I get into most of the restuarant's Always full. I want ohanas, canada, garden grill. I dont care about the ones that no one knows about.

 

[MousDad]

Im a very optimistic/ happy person. You should try it someday. Being negative is easy and kinda silly. Being optimistic and loving life takes WORK and resposibility but in the end its all worth it.

Move over Giselle, there's a new princess in town.

 

[Disneykidder]

Free dining starts Aug. 24...

Back to the original question....is attendance down? Well, I certainly hope so for my trip 2 weeks from today. I know locals will be back to school so that may help. But ADR's are def. booked. I have been trying to change a few things around and haven't been able to. I called for 2 months to change my ressie at Le Celier to an earlier one and couldn't. A couple of days ago, I was able to...just right timing. I hope the crowds let up a little!! Anyone have a guess about that week?

 

[EPCOT.nut]

Fantasmic is getting cut to two shows per week (not per day) in Jan when it's slower. Speculation runs from a reworking of the show to the desire to divert guests to AI's evening finale.

:lol:

I read your post and could not for the LIFE OF ME figure out what AI meant.

:lol:


I got it now. :lookaroun

 

[RiversideBunny]

I read your post and could not for the LIFE OF ME figure out what AI meant.

It stands for American Idiot.

IMHO

 

[EPCOT.nut]

It stands for American Idiot.

IMHO

YES I had figured it out, hence the "I got it now" - it just takes me a while for new attractions to sink into my brain. :lol:

 

[coasterphil]

Attendence is still up compared to last year, but not at the rate that Disney expects. There is a definite slowdown, just not enough for things to go in reverse just yet.

 

[Monty]

Perfect example of someone who thinks on the micro scale and NOT the macro scale. While attendance isn't plummeting, you will notice a HUGE influx of foreign tourists and a large drop in domestic tourists (at least here in New York, where Times Square is the most visited individual spot in the country). As someone else posted, most people plan and pay for their vacations in advance, so Disney shouldn't be experiencing too brutal a decrease until next year. Even Six Flags had a good 2nd Quarter, but that could be because people can't afford to travel further (just to play devil's advocate) )

But for people to dismiss that economy is bad is pure ignorance. The fact that the Candian dollar is worth more than the U.S. dollar is a telling sign on how bad our economy really is.

Currently the Canadian dollar is slightly below yours, but it does mean my vacation is costing me a lot less this year!

Free dining starts Aug. 24...

Back to the original question....is attendance down? Well, I certainly hope so for my trip 2 weeks from today. I know locals will be back to school so that may help. But ADR's are def. booked. I have been trying to change a few things around and haven't been able to. I called for 2 months to change my ressie at Le Celier to an earlier one and couldn't. A couple of days ago, I was able to...just right timing. I hope the crowds let up a little!! Anyone have a guess about that week?

See you there! :wave:

 

[disneytopdog]

Is attendance down?

If you click on the "trip count down" link from this site it shows 404 wdwmagic members going in September of this year. I think last year at this time that number was over 500 for September. I know that this is by no means is a correct figure or way to gauge attendance. But the people on this site IMHO represent the die hard fans, who come hell or high water will make a trip to WDW at the slower times of the year to take advantage of good deals and specials. Just an observation.

 

[DTM93]

I understand that this is a prediction from someone who has never been to WDW but I was just wondering.

I was looking a booking a holiday at WDW for 29th November until 13th December there are only 2 hotels that are left and I think it may be one for the 3 of us that are going.

 

[ssusca]

I hate the use of percentages, because they aren't equal. 5.7% of today's population is a LOT MORE than 6.8% of even 2005's population. So while the percentage may have gone down, the ACTUAL number of people who are out of work increased.

You are correct in that the total number of people out of work today is higher than in 2005 even though the percentage is lower, however since today's population is much more than that of 2005, then 94.3 percent (100 - 5.7) of today's population is a whole lot moe than 93.2 (100 - 6.8) percent of 2005's population therefore the ACTUAL number of people working today is also much higher.