Aladdin is out drawing Godzilla

[CJR]

It won't be anywhere near top 5 at the end of the year. It's doing fine. Lets not go nuts with the exaggerations.

I have a feeling The Lion King will outperform it. Just a gut feeling. Even that will have trouble making the top five though, with Endgame having came out, Toy Story 4, Star Wars and Frozen II on the way. That's just Disney alone. One could guess (and hope) that one of the other studios could crack the top five.

 

[Tony Perkis]

I have a feeling The Lion King will outperform it. Just a gut feeling. Even that will have trouble making the top five though, with Endgame having came out, Toy Story 4, Star Wars and Frozen II on the way. That's just Disney alone. One could guess (and hope) that one of the other studios could crack the top five.

Have a feeling? It’s a foregone conclusion that TLK will topple Aladdin’s box office gross by a significant amount.

 

[LSLS]

It's already beat Solo. The comparison is not Endgame or Captain Marvel. The most important thing is will Disney's total box office pass last years record in June or July? If it does in June there is better than a 50/50 chance they will pass $4 billion this year not including Fox. Through yesterday they need 582,211,194 more this month to equaly last years yotal through June. Given the presales for Toy Story 4 there is a very high percentage of passing the June record of $2,241,412,239.

I'm not sure what your arguing me on. Whether important or not, the idea that "everyone is going to see it" is ridiculous. It should turn a prophet, but it's not making some ridiculous numbers where everyone is going to see it. That is all I was stating.

 

[LSLS]

I have a feeling The Lion King will outperform it. Just a gut feeling. Even that will have trouble making the top five though, with Endgame having came out, Toy Story 4, Star Wars and Frozen II on the way. That's just Disney alone. One could guess (and hope) that one of the other studios could crack the top five.

I have very little doubt it will. I have less desire to see lion king than Aladdin, but I also know I am in a small minority on that.

 

[Tony Perkis]

I have very little doubt it will. I have less desire to see lion king than Aladdin, but I also know I am in a small minority on that.

I probably have a bit more interest in Lion King than Aladdin.

The need for a remake aside, which I don’t understand beyond the monetary factor, this film at least has a good director attached to it.

 

[Ripken10]

I have a feeling The Lion King will outperform it. Just a gut feeling. Even that will have trouble making the top five though, with Endgame having came out, Toy Story 4, Star Wars and Frozen II on the way. That's just Disney alone. One could guess (and hope) that one of the other studios could crack the top five.

While I agree that Aladdin will have a hard time staying in the top 5 (doesn't take away from how well it is doing), I can't say most experts will agree with your prediction about the Lion King. Right now, from what I have gathered, it is looking like a top 3 movie for the year.

Just for fun, I did a quick search (please understand this is not real in depth, I just wanted something quick) of the projections and predictions currently for movies in 2019 to see where they have movies landing. Some are way too far out to really get a good read on and will change a lot. Here is what I found some sites are projecting the top domestic box office will be for 2019:

1) Avengers: End Game $850,000,000 (quick estimate on current projection)
2) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker $666,000,000 [Reddit]; $750,000,000 [IMDb]
3) Lion King $650,000,000 [BoxOfficePro]; $600,000,000 [IMDb]
4) Frozen 2 $500,000,000 [Reddit]; $500,000,000 [IMDb]
5) Toy Story 4 $495,000,000 [BoxOfficePro]; $450,000,000 [IMDb]
6) Captain Marvel $430,00,000 (quick estimate on current projection)
7) Spiderman: Far From Home $405,000,000 [BoxOfficePro]; $400,000,000 [IMDb]
8) Jumanji 3 $400,000,000 [IMDb]
9) It: Chapter 2 $350,000,000 [IMDb]
10) Aladdin $300,000,000 (quick estimate based on other live actions runs)
11) Secret Life of Pets 2 $263,000,000 [BoxOfficePro -- they have actually reduced their final domestic prediction, but I don't recall their new prediction, I only had their highest prediction]
12) Hobbs & Shaw $200,000,000 [IMDb]

NOte - these are not my predictions, or how I feel it will happen. I just did a quick search of a couple of the sites I knew. Point was, it seems pretty much expected across all projections that Lion King will make more that Toy Story 4 (although Toy Story 4 is trending up, so is Lion King at this time) or Frozen 2.

Crazy to think that right now (will change) 7 of the top 10 projected movies for 2019 are Disney, and one other has a connection to Disney (Spiderman)

Quick update - the Friday opening numbers for Secret Life of Pets 2 just came out. They are a bit lower then some predicted, and right now BoxOfficePro is estimating they will make 46 million this weekend. When they were predicting a 263 million total run for Pets, they were also predicting a 80 million opening weekend. How this will play out for its final domestic will be interesting. It should have good legs, but still puts it behind it's "original" track to over 250 million.

 

[BrianLo]

Woof... what a weekend.

Godzilla fell off the rails this weekend.

Secret life of Pets will of course be profitable with Illuminations’ tight budgets, but any time a sequel takes a 50% nose dive executives won’t be thrilled. I think this will probably end it’s trilogy potential.

Dark Phoenix crashes and burns, but honestly it’s for the best. Kevin Feige can safely tuck that franchise into rest and really isn’t beholden to the specific actors anymore... Maybe maybe a Hugh Jackman or Patrick Stewart cameos.

Oh and Aladdin is actually legging out ok now.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Secret life of Pets will of course be profitable with Illuminations’ tight budgets, but any time a sequel takes a 50% nose dive executives won’t be thrilled. I think this will probably end it’s trilogy potential.

Isn't 50% week over week decay the norm for most movies?

 

[Tony Perkis]

Isn't 50% week over week decay the norm for most movies?

50-60% these days. Theatrical releases are much more front loaded, especially blockbusters, than in the past.

 

[LSLS]

Gotta admit I'm surprised lion king is projected that high. Didnt think there was a chance it would beat out toy story and frozen, and thought spiderman would have a chance to even be higher . But obviously I'm no expert at all, so ill believe the experts.

 

[BrianLo]

Isn't 50% week over week decay the norm for most movies?

Sorry that wasn't very clear. Its opening weekend is 50% (potentially closer to 60%) lower than the first film

Secret Life of Pets Opening Weekend: 104.3
Secret Life of Pets 2 Opening Weekend: 46.2 (current Deadline figure)

I also think Toy Story 4 will cut off its legs in two weeks at this point. Not that two animated movies can't perform, but clearly the family interest isn't really there this time around.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Sorry that wasn't very clear. Its opening weekend is 50% (potentially closer to 60%) lower than the first film

Ouch.

 

[Ripken10]

Sorry that wasn't very clear. Its opening weekend is 50% (potentially closer to 60%) lower than the first film

Secret Life of Pets Opening Weekend: 104.3
Secret Life of Pets 2 Opening Weekend: 46.2 (current Deadline figure)

I also think Toy Story 4 will cut off its legs in two weeks at this point. Not that two animated movies can't perform, but clearly the family interest isn't really there this time around.

Most experts are saying Pets 2 is probably not doing as well as a result of many things, but mainly due to anticipation of Toy Story 4. Toy Story 4 most are saying they are trying to be cautious in their predictions, but it is breaking presale records left and right. It won't be bust, it's just a question of how big will it be. Early social media reaction (take it for what it is) is very positive right now from critics, more so than other similar movies (Pets 2 didn't have nearly as positive reaction to its first social media responses from critics).

 

[jt04]

Aladdin soared past 600 million globally this weekend. Still plenty left in the tank. 300 million North America looks likely.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I also think Toy Story 4 will cut off its legs in two weeks at this point. Not that two animated movies can't perform, but clearly the family interest isn't really there this time around.

Toy Story 4 is going to eat up pretty much the entire family/Disney market when it opens. Between that and MIB: International opening Friday, I don't think Aladdin will hit $300 domestically, and maybe fall short of what Maleficent did 5 years ago ($758 million worldwide).

Ouch.

Good thing Universal Studios Hollywood isn't building a ride based on the franchise that's set to open next year.

 

[Magenta Panther]

Toy Story 4 is going to eat up pretty much the entire family/Disney market when it opens. Between that and MIB: International opening Friday, I don't think Aladdin will hit $300 domestically, and maybe fall short of what Maleficent did 5 years ago ($758 million worldwide).



Good thing Universal Studios Hollywood isn't building a ride based on the franchise that's set to open next year.

Indeed. That's the folly of basing an entire franchise, including merch and theme park rides, on the success of one movie.

*cough cough* Avatar *cough cough*

 

[CJR]

maybe fall short of what Maleficent did 5 years ago ($758 million worldwide).

To be fair, Maleficent did quite well, for reasons I'm still trying to understand, and is definitely a higher bar. Better to be compared to that, at least financially speaking, than Dumbo.

Now, Maleficent's sequel coming out this year........

 

[Dead2009]

Watched Aladdin last night, it's by far one of the worst Disney live-action movies they've ever put out. The acting, other than Will Smith trying to make the Genie his own thing, was horrendous. It's only making money because it's Disney, nothing more and nothing less.

 

[LSLS]

To be fair, Maleficent did quite well, for reasons I'm still trying to understand, and is definitely a higher bar. Better to be compared to that, at least financially speaking, than Dumbo.

Now, Maleficent's sequel coming out this year........

Probably because it was one of the first remakes, and it was done with a unique twist (as opposed to just retelling the same story with an extra 30 minute useless side story and song).

 

[Magenta Panther]

Watched Aladdin last night, it's by far one of the worst Disney live-action movies they've ever put out. The acting, other than Will Smith trying to make the Genie his own thing, was horrendous. It's only making money because it's Disney, nothing more and nothing less.

Disney plus nostalgia. Nostalgia is a helluva drug.