Accuracy of Crowd Patterns?

[dreamscometrue]

I've researched several sites and read a number of sources that suggest which parks are best to visit each day and which to avoid. The problem is that the information from different sources, who often claim to be ex-CM's, former employees, etc., often does not give the same data about daily park crowds. As a result, I'm not sure what to believe.

For those of you who are 'in the know', is it safe to simply do the following during any visit?- If you can get to a park before the gates open for morning EMH, then do so. If you can't get there that early, avoid that park in a big way because of the larger crowds on EMH days.

Thoughts?

 

[Carolyn1717]

I've researched several sites and read a number of sources that suggest which parks are best to visit each day and which to avoid. The problem is that the information from different sources, who often claim to be ex-CM's, former employees, etc., often does not give the same data about daily park crowds. As a result, I'm not sure what to believe.

For those of you who are 'in the know', is it safe to simply do the following during any visit?- If you can get to a park before the gates open for morning EMH, then do so. If you can't get there that early, avoid that park in a big way because of the larger crowds on EMH days.

Thoughts?

It's always to your advantage to use EMH as much as possible. Should the crowds get really large after you can always just hop over to another park. The only thing I ever really heard in all my years at DRC is you really want to avoid MK on Sundays. Whether this is true or not I really don't know, but this is the word that always went around the office. Best advice I can give you, use your hopper option to get out of any park that gets too crowded. We left MK one day and went over to the Studios...went back to MK at about 5 PM and got on & off of everything with no wait.

 

[rlaeromech]

I've researched several sites and read a number of sources that suggest which parks are best to visit each day and which to avoid. The problem is that the information from different sources, who often claim to be ex-CM's, former employees, etc., often does not give the same data about daily park crowds. As a result, I'm not sure what to believe.

For those of you who are 'in the know', is it safe to simply do the following during any visit?- If you can get to a park before the gates open for morning EMH, then do so. If you can't get there that early, avoid that park in a big way because of the larger crowds on EMH days.

Thoughts?

I don't typically stay on site, so I avoid the EMH Parks altogether. When I have stayed on site, the only time I would go to EMH was in the morning. The night ones were typically too crowded. You have to remember that all those charts and data and info are based on yesterday's information. They are good at estimating.. but its like the weather, you only KNOW it after it happened. I have seen the estimates wrong both ways. The biggest key I have found is get there before it opens, whether that's at EMH time or standard, be at the gate when it opens.

 

[CAPTAIN HOOK]

I don't typically stay on site, so I avoid the EMH Parks altogether. When I have stayed on site, the only time I would go to EMH was in the morning. The night ones were typically too crowded. You have to remember that all those charts and data and info are based on yesterday's information. They are good at estimating.. but its like the weather, you only KNOW it after it happened. I have seen the estimates wrong both ways. The biggest key I have found is get there before it opens, whether that's at EMH time or standard, be at the gate when it opens.

I think you've answered your own question here.

If not staying at a Disney Resort - avoid EMH.

While crowd pattern estimates are a great planning tool - they're honestly no real help. If EVERYONE chose to visit the same park on the same day then NOBODY could predict that. If I had a crystal ball I'd be filling in my lottery ticket for next Saturday - not looking at park attendance

 

[earldw28]

I typically use TouringPlans.com. They seem to be fairly accurate and they do updates quite often. They do mini studies occasionally to see if they are off and how far off they are. They also give recommendations for what park to visit on any particular day and what parks to avoid. They have a list of the highest and lowest wait times ate each park based on day of the week. They have put a lot of work into it so you should check it out if you get the chance. I'm sure you will have fun no matter what the crowds are like but I dont blame you for trying because I do the same exact thing. Good Luck!!

 

[YankeeMouse]

We've been to WDW about 50 times. We have tried this again and again. The only time anymore that we go to EMH is in the morning, and then we get out pretty quick and park hop to another park. By quick, I mean 10:30 a.m. But we have even stopped doing that recently. Going to the park in the morning which had the late EMH the night before is usually the least crowded. Just got back from Disney 2 weeks ago, and we decided to see if our theory maybe was flawed. So we went to EMH evening at DHS and it was insane. Left. Went to Epcot, relatively uncrowded, even got on Soarin without a fastpass during Illuminations, maybe a 30 minute wait. The next morning we went back to DHS, where there was no EMH morning hours, and it was empty. The only park I'll go to for EMH evening hours is the Magic Kingdom but then I plan not to go on any attractions, just take in the ambiance, stop in to the Confectionery, etc. If we happen on an attraction that is not too busy, we consider it gravy.

 

[dreamscometrue]

Thanks for the input. It is very much appreciated. I've typically overplanned our vacations, but we've tried to be more spontaneous the past few trips, and I've had more fun. Having said that, it's still important to us to try to not always run into huge crowds. The 'morning EMH and get out early to park hop' has worked well, and I like the idea of hitting a park the morning after evening EMH. I just started the thread because I've followed the advice of a few different sites (which suggest the least crowded parks, etc.), and it hasn't seemed to work out any better than a simple plan built around EMH, as suggested above.

 

[Elonwy]

Going to the park in the morning which had the late EMH the night before is usually the least crowded.

Never thought of that one. Great tip though, it makes sense. thanks :wave:

 

[lentesta]

Quote:
Originally Posted by YankeeMouse
Going to the park in the morning which had the late EMH the night before is usually the least crowded.

Never thought of that one. Great tip though, it makes sense. thanks

If you look at actual wait times from the parks, the day after morning EMHs typically has lower waits than the day after evening EMHs, on average.

I'm not saying that to be confrontational, but to make a point about having actual data to test these pet theories. When I've asked the folks who run these other websites and have their own "best days," how they did their research to come to these conclusions, the only answer I've ever got is some variation of "I/everyone knows it's true." :brick:

As for the original OP, "avoid EMH parks" is a decent broad strategy. It's not foolproof. I think that Monday's at the Studios with evening EMH are generally not very crowded, at least until TSM goes live. But yeah, if you had to go with a one-sentence rule, go with that.

Len

 

[dreamscometrue]

If you look at actual wait times from the parks, the day after morning EMHs typically has lower waits than the day after evening EMHs, on average.

I'm not saying that to be confrontational, but to make a point about having actual data to test these pet theories. When I've asked the folks who run these other websites and have their own "best days," how they did their research to come to these conclusions, the only answer I've ever got is some variation of "I/everyone knows it's true." :brick:

As for the original OP, "avoid EMH parks" is a decent broad strategy. It's not foolproof. I think that Monday's at the Studios with evening EMH are generally not very crowded, at least until TSM goes live. But yeah, if you had to go with a one-sentence rule, go with that.

Len

Thanks Len.

As a calculus and stats teacher, I love having data to back up any theory. I have been confused as to how several sources claiming to know what's what actually give different advice with respect to which parks to visit and which to avoid. It becomes a matter of who can back up their suggestions or who one believes to be most reliable. If you do research for The Unofficial Guide, that suggests that you really are 'in the know'.

 

[lentesta]

Thanks, dreamscometrue. Working for the Guide gets us the funding and expertise to do the kinds of data collection needed for these things. So for us, the answer to any question comes via a five-step process:

1) Design experiment or data collection method
2) Collect data (most of us are Six Sigma certified)
3) Analyze data (we have a professional statistician)
4) Draw conclusions
5) Publish

It's my experience that lots of folks think steps 1 through 3 are optional.

But let me put it another way: to revise the typical travel guide costs around $10,000 for the entire book. We spend more than that annually on just the crowd calendar. And it's not even in the book.

Len

 

[dreamscometrue]

Thanks, dreamscometrue. Working for the Guide gets us the funding and expertise to do the kinds of data collection needed for these things. So for us, the answer to any question comes via a five-step process:

1) Design experiment or data collection method
2) Collect data (most of us are Six Sigma certified)
3) Analyze data (we have a professional statistician)
4) Draw conclusions
5) Publish

It's my experience that lots of folks think steps 1 through 3 are optional.

But let me put it another way: to revise the typical travel guide costs around $10,000 for the entire book. We spend more than that annually on just the crowd calendar. And it's not even in the book.

Len

That's impressive. Keep up the good work and thanks for the feedback. See you on the boards.