A Redistribution of [Wealth] Fastpass+

[RSoxNo1]

@lentesta posted a great article over on his blog today where he confirmed what most of us were observing already. Fastpass+ is succeeding in redistributing crowds. While we are seeing longer waits at attractions that never had them before (Pirates, Mansion, etc), wait times are decreasing at marquee attractions.

Whether we like Fastpass+ or not, it has seemingly succeeded in some respects where Disney has failed many times before. It has redistributed crowds.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/06/23/fastpass-lowering-waits-disney-world-popular-rides/

 

[Bolt]

I LOVE MATH!

But honestly, I love this. Mostly because Living with the Land has full boats all day long now and people need to be riding that.

 

[Bluewaves]

That gave me flashback to college statistics class, Interesting post though, I wonder how it will affect my usual touring plans, My week in September of last year I didn't get a single fast pass the whole week. I wonder if the ability to do what I want with out planning ahead will be affected.

 

[twebber55]

@lentesta posted a great article over on his blog today where he confirmed what most of us were observing already. Fastpass+ is succeeding in redistributing crowds. While we are seeing longer waits at attractions that never had them before (Pirates, Mansion, etc), wait times are decreasing at marquee attractions.

Whether we like Fastpass+ or not, it has seemingly succeeded in some respects where Disney has failed many times before. It has redistributed crowds.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/06/23/fastpass-lowering-waits-disney-world-popular-rides/

read the article and thought it was very interesting and pretty much what I experienced when I was there two weeks ago

 

[asianway]

@lentesta posted a great article over on his blog today where he confirmed what most of us were observing already. Fastpass+ is succeeding in redistributing crowds. While we are seeing longer waits at attractions that never had them before (Pirates, Mansion, etc), wait times are decreasing at marquee attractions.

Whether we like Fastpass+ or not, it has seemingly succeeded in some respects where Disney has failed many times before. It has redistributed crowds.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2014/06/23/fastpass-lowering-waits-disney-world-popular-rides/

Didn't frosty josh do a similar analysis & reach the same conclusion a month ago?

 

[BigTxEars]

Yikes too much math involved in that to be an enjoyable read


I do agree FP+ is working as designed overall, fine tuning ahead and it should be even better.

 

[NoChesterHester]

While the redistribution of crowds does seem to be working, there is no doubt that FP+ has done anything but level the playing field. More than ever those that are tech savvy, understand a bit of statistics, and read blogs have a massive advantage. I felt that this last trip we hardly waited in line and successfully gamed the system.

 

[natatomic]

I'm sure FP+ has affected wait times (both positively and negatively, depending on the attraction, as shown by the article). But I honestly think the biggest factor in lowering wait times for the big E-ticket attractions comes from when they replaced the GACs with the DAS cards. I wish the DAS cards and FP+ happened years apart so we'd really know each one's effect separately. That fact that both came about very nearly at the same time (FP+ was in its testing phase when DAS was officially implemented), means that it's not quite possible to measure either one's impact individually. Of course, DAS probably cost Disney all of fifty cents to implement vs FP+'s billion-dollar+ price tag, which means the OFFICIAL stance is that FP+ is perfect and wonderful and holy and solely responsible for lessening the wait times, forever and ever amen. Or else.

Edited to add: I'd really appreciate it if someone could give me a quick 5th grade grammar lesson and explain to me when I should use effect vs affect, because while I have a vague idea, I really just guess half the time.

 

[cw1982]

Edited to add: I'd really appreciate it if someone could give me a quick 5th grade grammar lesson and explain to me when I should use effect vs affect, because while I have a vague idea, I really just guess half the time.

Effect= noun, as in, "This is the effect that FP+ has on the lines for Pirates of the Caribbean."
Affect= verb, as in, "I hope FP+ doesn't adversely affect the wait times for Splash Mountain."

ETA: sorry, it's the English nerd in me; I couldn't resist

 

[dreamfinder]

Didn't frosty josh do a similar analysis & reach the same conclusion a month ago?

Perhaps, but I know that @lentesta has been talking about the changes for a while, and the blog post linked references an earlier breakdown he did in April, this one just had more detail.

 

[Master Yoda]

While the redistribution of crowds does seem to be working, there is no doubt that FP+ has done anything but level the playing field. More than ever those that are tech savvy, understand a bit of statistics, and read blogs have a massive advantage. I felt that this last trip we hardly waited in line and successfully gamed the system.

So, just like the old system.

 

[dupac]

Oh statistics make my little IE heart happy.

 

[lebeau]

So, just like the old system.

Well, yes and no.

Under the old system, I could explain FP to a newby rather easily.

Under the new system, there are certain people who get lost the minute I tell them they need to set up an account. Forget apps. The new system is very intimidating for some when the old system was only mildly so. There is a steeper learning curve especially for those who have not yet adopted modern tech.

 

[dupac]

It's funny that the comments on that article are saying the exact opposite: experienced, aggressive park goers are the ones who are being short changed because they can no longer ride the same number of rides.

I would be interested to see what has happened to the avg # of rides / person / day

 

[Rasvar]

While the redistribution of crowds does seem to be working, there is no doubt that FP+ has done anything but level the playing field. More than ever those that are tech savvy, understand a bit of statistics, and read blogs have a massive advantage. I felt that this last trip we hardly waited in line and successfully gamed the system.

I have to agree with this. My first run with FP+ was this past weekend. I didn't have the statistics ahead of time but it didn't take me long to figure out the net affect that it was redistributing guests more evenly. While my first day took a lot of extra effort to jiggle the schedule (mainly since the app function for that was down and I had to wait at the kiosk), I was able to adjust things the night before and then on the fly the next day to deal with my changing plans. I managed to hit Space Mountain, Big Thunder and Pirates in a slightly less than two hour window between 12:45 and 2:30 just prior to the parade (which got rained out).

I can't help but think that people without smart phones have to be frustrated by having to deal with the kiosk all the time. Day guests with no pre-booking privileges definitely get screwed by this. It will work to drive people to the resorts but I also have to wonder how many people it will turn off in the long run. Not too sure this won't result in a short term occupancy bump but a long term downturn in repeat guests.

For someone like me, the new system can be made to work more to my advantage than the old FP system. However, I don't see Disney getting the ROI that they were sold unless they get the Big Data operation up and running with positional tracking of the Magicbands.

 

[WDWFigment]

I know much adieu was made about FP+ not being able to increase capacity in response to Rasolu's statement that it had, but this suggests to me that it can increase practical capacity (but not theoretical capacity).

Say, for example, that park-wide theoretical capacity is 30,000 guests (totally made up number--obviously wrong), a number that consists of attractions, queues, gift shops--basically everywhere that Disney will count as "occupied" by guests. Let's also say that 1,000 of that is for Living with the Land, an attraction that never fully utilized its theoretical capacity. This would thus reduce the park's practical capacity, because people weren't going there and it was not operating at <100% efficiency, so it was below its theoretical capacity.

I guess the question, then, is whether capacity during peak times (for phased closing purposes) is determined by practical or theoretical capacity?

Disclosure: I know very little about statistics--just enough to be dangerous, so I could have missed something very basic. I'm also *not* defending FP+ as a legitimate means of "increasing" park capacity.

 

[boufa]

While the redistribution of crowds does seem to be working, there is no doubt that FP+ has done anything but level the playing field. More than ever those that are tech savvy, understand a bit of statistics, and read blogs have a massive advantage. I felt that this last trip we hardly waited in line and successfully gamed the system.

This is not unusual and occurs in most systems in the world. Anyone with more local knowledge can defeat most systems set up for the masses. We have a toll road not far from here. It is busy, and expensive. However, with a little planning and an understanding of the area, you can easily get anywhere you want and never go on it, and the overall time is similar, or better... system gamed.

 

[Mammymouse]

Well, yes and no.

Under the old system, I could explain FP to a newby rather easily.

Under the new system, there are certain people who get lost the minute I tell them they need to set up an account. Forget apps. The new system is very intimidating for some when the old system was only mildly so. There is a steeper learning curve especially for those who have not yet adopted modern tech.

I am almost 66 and have a basic tech knowledge, like e-mails, computer bookkeeping for our rentals business, and online bill pay. BUT when it comes to doing anything other than booking my DVC reservation and dining I draw the line of tech involvement. It is my vacation time and I don't want to have spend hours of tech preparation to do something we have been doing since 1984 by just showing up.

 

[rioriz]

I LOVE MATH!

But honestly, I love this. Mostly because Living with the Land has full boats all day long now and people need to be riding that.

My favorite ride in Epcot!!!

 

[rioriz]

I always call BS on the whole technology aspect of FP+...it is something new and people will have to learn how to use it just like people who switch from PC to a MAC. In the long run it'll all make sense and it will become much easier (and possibly) better than the original format.

For those that don't want to deal with the tech aspect wait till you get to the park, find a kiosk, and book your ride times that way. It is A LOT easier to do at a kiosk, and you do not have to run to all the attractions just to get a FP.

For those that don't want to do this then just tour the Park as you normally would and gripe about "the good ole days"...a year or two from now we won't even be having this conversation and things will settle in as the norm such as was with Legacy FP