A lower attendance future for WDW?

jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
That would involve leaving the parks, though, which adds a ton of travel time into the equation. It could easily take you an hour+ to get back to the ride for your VQ spot. That's not something most guests would bother doing, especially since they're going to want to experience the rest of the theme park. This suggestion would only work for guests that are staying like 2 weeks at a time.
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I think you'll be able to create any itinerary you like. Of course this won't be anytime soon. Just the direction technology is taking us. 2030's perhaps. Although these days events occur faster and faster.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
See my above post. That's logistically impossible. There's not enough capacity in shops, restaurants, and walkways for that to work. It would hard to even move around at the MK if no one was waiting in lines.

The parks are designed to have a significant number of guests waiting in queues at any given time. You could do an all virtual queue system, but it would need to be in a new park that was planned/designed with that in mind.
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That's the same at every other park in the US. It's also why the Universal express pass works better then the timed FP system.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
matt9112 said:
No im saying its not all rich people its a ton of people living beyond there means. Like most of the western worlds middle class.
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So? Are you saying that Disney is going to cut their prices so that people won't be tempted to live beyond their means?
Not sure what you're suggesting?

Disney is perfectly happy for you to live beyond your means. And they are happy to raise their prices by 5% and push people to live 5% even higher above their means.

Again, what does any of that have to do with whether Disney will keep trying to raise their prices and reduce the benefits of those who are low spenders?
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Jrb1979 said:
That's the same at every other park in the US. It's also why the Universal express pass works better then the timed FP system.
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Disney had tried hard to do 2 contradicting things at the same time:
1 -- Encourage people to spend more...
2 -- While not discouraging the low spenders.

Using another metaphor, they are trying to have their cake and eat it too. If you raise prices, you will reduce demand -- In the past, they tried to raise their prices without reducing demand.
So, they have been careful to give incentives for more spending without overtly penalizing the lower spenders.
"Everyone gets 3 fastpasses! Everyone can book them 30 days in advance!" But if you spend more money, "you get the perk of 60 day booking window."

Universal is much more willing to discriminate between the low spender and the big spender: "Low spender gets to wait in regular lines. High spender gets express passes."

The point of my original post -- I suspect Disney is transitioning towards being more willing to discriminate against the low spender. They are now more concerned with encouraging higher spending, and less concerned about whether they discourage the low spenders.
Early Theme Park Entry is a perfect example: Low spenders used to have the same rope drop privileges as all guests, outside of EMH morning parks. Now, with EMH replaced by ETPE, off-site guests (the lowest of spenders) have completely totally lost rope drop privileges.
Expansion of night parties: Only the "big" spenders get hours from morning to late night.
 
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UNCgolf

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
That's the same at every other park in the US. It's also why the Universal express pass works better then the timed FP system.
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Right, which is why other parks don't use virtual queues for all their rides either. And yes, the Universal Express Pass is much better than FP+, mainly because it's available to far fewer people (well, I suppose it's technically available to anyone, but priced to be out of range for most). That will be harder for Disney simply because Disney has many more guests than Universal, but they could still cut it to an extent.
 
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Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
Right, which is why other parks don't use virtual queues for all their rides either. And yes, the Universal Express Pass is far better than FP+, mainly because it's available to far fewer people (well, I suppose it's technically available to anyone, but priced to be out of range for most). That will be harder for Disney no matter what simply because Disney has many more guests than Universal, but they could still cut it to an extent.
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That's the system Disney should go to. If everyone has FP no one has FP
 
UNCgolf

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
That's the system Disney should go to. If everyone has FP no one has FP
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I agree. I would love for them to dump FP+ and the 60 days advance rush to grab one before they're all gone.

It would also make the standby lines more bearable.

And if they included it for all deluxe resort guests (which may not be feasible depending on the overall numbers), that's suddenly a big additional perk to staying at a deluxe resort, which they could really use.
 
jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
Right, which is why other parks don't use virtual queues for all their rides either. And yes, the Universal Express Pass is far better than FP+, mainly because it's available to far fewer people (well, I suppose it's technically available to anyone, but priced to be out of range for most). That will be harder for Disney no matter what simply because Disney has many more guests than Universal, but they could still cut it to an extent.
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See I think the apps will become smart enough to guide you through the parks in the most efficient way possible while tailored to specific customers. It wouldn't guide a young family to coasters for example. Others might request only coasters. It will be very customizable until all slots are reserved. It will allow guests to accomplish what they want and move on to other activities. Reserving early will be key for most. No fastpasses. No long wait times. Limited standby for those that want to be "spontaneous".

Of course no APs either once implemented.

This would move people efficiently through their day and allow separate ticket events in the evening.
 
seabreezept813

seabreezept813

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
I used to think that...but I’ve softened that stance over the years. I’ve found the crowds to be more manageable...so that’s an incentive to go.
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We go in August and it’s not nearly as bad as people make it out to be.. midday breaks at restaurants and the daily storm help. We went with a 1.5 year old and it wasn’t bad at all. Disney has a lot of indoor attractions.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
seabreezept813 said:
We go in August and it’s not nearly as bad as people make it out to be.. midday breaks at restaurants and the daily storm help. We went with a 1.5 year old and it wasn’t bad at all. Disney has a lot of indoor attractions.
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I think what helps is it’s blazing hot everywhere now. When it’s 90 degrees + for 20 days a month in most of the US - it’s not a major shock to the system.
 
M

MurphyJoe

Well-Known Member
UNCgolf said:
I agree. I would love for them to dump FP+ and the 60 days advance rush to grab one before they're all gone.

It would also make the standby lines more bearable.

And if they included it for all deluxe resort guests (which may not be feasible depending on the overall numbers), that's suddenly a big additional perk to staying at a deluxe resort, which they could really use.
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Running the room numbers based on Disney's classification and TouringPlans's room counts, there's 9,984 deluxe rooms at WDW. UO's hotels which provide complimentary Universal Express have 2,400 rooms between them (from TP's numbers). Ignoring stuff that matters like average nightly occupancy and theme park hourly ride rates, Universal has 1,200 rooms with UE per park while Disney, if they gave all Deluxe guests program access on the Mouse, 2496 rooms per park. Gut feeling is Disney would have to limit complimentary access to club level guests only to keep lines reasonable.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
MurphyJoe said:
Running the room numbers based on Disney's classification and TouringPlans's room counts, there's 9,984 deluxe rooms at WDW. UO's hotels which provide complimentary Universal Express have 2,400 rooms between them (from TP's numbers). Ignoring stuff that matters like average nightly occupancy and theme park hourly ride rates, Universal has 1,200 rooms with UE per park while Disney, if they gave all Deluxe guests program access on the Mouse, 2496 rooms per park. Gut feeling is Disney would have to limit complimentary access to club level guests only to keep lines reasonable.
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Here's a good one. It's not a free perk for anyone any more.
 
M

mitros

Member
havoc315 said:
I was struck by the recent article about the possibility of an Epcot hotel:

"an in-park EPCOT boutique hotel may well fit in with Disney's post-COVID plans for lower attendance, offset with higher spending guests."

And it made me consider whether this is part of the soft-reset we are seeing during this Covid re-opening transition. It would seem counter-intuitive at first -- Why would you ever intentionally work towards lower attendance?
Sure, higher spending per guest makes sense -- but wouldn't you want ever increasing attendance AND ever increasing guest spending?

But then I thought about trends over the last 30 years. From the 1960's-1980's, sports stadiums kept getting bigger and bigger, the goal of sustaining bigger and bigger crowds. But then something happened with the newer generation of stadiums: Starting with Camden Yards in 1992, they starting going retro with the stadiums. Smaller more intimate stadiums started replacing the mega stadiums. Charge more per ticket, offer more luxury boxes, more premium seating, but cut back on the "cheap seats." Here in New York, 42,000 seat Citi Field replaced 45,000 seat Shea Stadium. Old Yankee Stadium could set 57,000, the newer stadium only 54,000.
Movie theaters have seen this trend on an even greater degree -- I grew up in the 80's, the era of the mega plex... bigger and bigger screens, with as many seats crammed in as possible.
But now, movie theaters have moved towards more luxurious seating - wide reclining seats, far lower capacity per theater.

In the end, WDW theme park guest capacity hasn't changed much in the last 20 years. In fact, many of the best and newest attractions have lower capacity than the attractions they replaced.

Some of Disney's actions suggest they may be perfectly happy accepting lower attendance, to the extent it allows them to increase guest spending. For example, the announced Early Theme Park Entry: In the old days of EMH, off-site guests could still get equal footing with onsite guests for rope drop, except at that morning's EMH park. Now, off-site guests will have a major rope drop disadvantage at all parks. Might that reduce off-site guests?
Off-site guests are FAR less profitable to Disney than on-site guests, not even close.

Similarly, lower attendance --> reduced lines --> greater guest satisfaction --> can charge more.

But like in the 80's, movie theaters were getting bigger and adding more seats, Disney in the 90's was building up "value" hotel capacity. Now, they are building an ultra expensive Starcruiser hotel. And according to this rumor, what would be an expensive boutique Epcot hotel.

With the slow return of entertainment, some of which appears gone forever. Slow return of APs. etc. Is Disney transitioning to a lower attendance future?
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Well, we would LOVE to see lower attendance numbers at WDW.....it is ALWAYS SO crowded!!!
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
MurphyJoe said:
Running the room numbers based on Disney's classification and TouringPlans's room counts, there's 9,984 deluxe rooms at WDW. UO's hotels which provide complimentary Universal Express have 2,400 rooms between them (from TP's numbers). Ignoring stuff that matters like average nightly occupancy and theme park hourly ride rates, Universal has 1,200 rooms with UE per park while Disney, if they gave all Deluxe guests program access on the Mouse, 2496 rooms per park. Gut feeling is Disney would have to limit complimentary access to club level guests only to keep lines reasonable.
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So limit it to on-site deluxe, and not make it available for separate purchase. Remember, UNI sells UE to day guests as well.
 

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