WDW July 4 2025

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I want to add a little here and perhaps push back a bit on the reporting.

Traditionally, it is pretty rare for the filings themselves to be C-suite fan fiction and from conversations I have had over the last few months, many are looking to go above and beyond typical measures to make sure they are being accurate on those filings. People don't want to leave any potential opening in case they draw the attention of the current admin for any reason.

Now the calls, those allow for a lot more spin but there are still limits. Investors, analyst, market reporters, the public, etc. are all sitting there with the data in hand as we listen. More than one CEO has lost their position from trying to paint a rosy picture while everyone is looking at the disaster plainly spelled out on paper.

I’m not arguing with you on this point…but public companies are NOT well regulated in 2025. Banks rip people off intentionally to the tune of billions and nobody gets the hook…they pay a fine…maybe? Kinda the new normal is modern robber baron

But to your point…they’re not gonna fudge hard numbers…but the whole point of grouping like 1,000 unrelated business items in one segment is it provides a completely legit way to praise the good things while burying the bad.

That doesn’t cover “bookings are up”…that is has nothing to tie them too. It’s “guidance” for sure but can be splained away.

As is “we’re gonna spend like a bazillion dollars on our parks…sometime”. That’s like trying to capture a cloud in a butterfly net. Nobody is tied to any part of it.
“Things changed” covers such statements.

What happened with that last quarterly call definitely falls in the “enigma” category. Nobody expected that. And not just we hacks on this board…the actual stock wonks were rather shocked that day.

So it creates a certain “doubt” as to where it came from. I think we all can understand the confusion…

“Their parks are lagging and their streaming is just above red line and they tank like 85% of their movie releases each year…so no wonder things are GREAT! Yay, Bob”

My slightly (I’ll admit) conspiratorial take is he REALLY needed that. Yutz had reappointed himself 2 years prior and nothing was better on the bottomline…there was public bad PR on a proxy fight and clashes with governments…and they were lagging way behind the market for quite some time…so the calls for retirement/replacement were going to get VERY real. And then R2D2 fixed the hyperdrive just in time.

Lying? From a fiduciary take no
“Hey guys…this one has to be a good show”?
You decide

 

[MisterPenguin]

More than one CEO has lost their position from trying to paint a rosy picture while everyone is looking at the disaster plainly spelled out on paper.

You mean like when your streaming service loses $1.5B in one quarter and you say everything's great?

 

[Dranth]

I’m not arguing with you on this point…but public companies are NOT well regulated in 2025. Banks rip people off intentionally to the tune of billions and nobody gets the hook…they pay a fine…maybe? Kinda the new normal is modern robber baron

But to your point…they’re not gonna fudge hard numbers…but the whole point of grouping like 1,000 unrelated business items in one segment is it provides a completely legit way to praise the good things while burying the bad.

That doesn’t cover “bookings are up”…that is has nothing to tie them too. It’s “guidance” for sure but can be splained away.

As is “we’re gonna spend like a bazillion dollars on our parks…sometime”. That’s like trying to capture a cloud in a butterfly net. Nobody is tied to any part of it.
“Things changed” covers such statements.

What happened with that last quarterly call definitely falls in the “enigma” category. Nobody expected that. And not just we hacks on this board…the actual stock wonks were rather shocked that day.

So it creates a certain “doubt” as to where it came from. I think we all can understand the confusion…

“Their parks are lagging and their streaming is just above red line and they tank like 85% of their movie releases each year…so no wonder things are GREAT! Yay, Bob”

My slightly (I’ll admit) conspiratorial take is he REALLY needed that. Yutz had reappointed himself 2 years prior and nothing was better on the bottomline…there was public bad PR on a proxy fight and clashes with governments…and they were lagging way behind the market for quite some time…so the calls for retirement/replacement were going to get VERY real. And then R2D2 fixed the hyperdrive just in time.

Lying? From a fiduciary take no
“Hey guys…this one has to be a good show”?
You decide

I don't disagree with a lot of that but, you can only BS so long before the numbers just don't agree with what you are saying.

For example, let's say they lied about attendance being up last quarter. Okay, then you would expect to see a drop in revenue for the segment. If there isn't one, people ask questions. Management could very well have an answer, even a good one, that makes sense, but that only works for so long without lying on your actual filings.

If they keep saying attendance is up quarter after quarter yet revenue (which we see and know about price increases) keeps dropping disconnected from costs (which we see) we know something is off.

As for the numbers themselves, sure, there is a lot of accounting black magic you can do, but it still doesn't hold up over time. Combine that with Disney being willing to admit and even mention when bookings are down repeatedly over the years (including recently) and I see no reason to currently doubt them on that point.

I was one of the folks that was very much expecting attendance to be down in the last report, it wasn't. So, either I made a wrong assumption, or they are lying. Given the track record of their reporting, I see no reason to currently doubt them.

None of that means they don't have problems. They obviously do, it just didn't manifest in the way many of us thought it would last quarter.

 

[HauntedPirate]

LL revenue is doing a lot of heavy lifting. IMHO.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't disagree with a lot of that but, you can only BS so long before the numbers just don't agree with what you are saying.

For example, let's say they lied about attendance being up last quarter. Okay, then you would expect to see a drop in revenue for the segment. If there isn't one, people ask questions. Management could very well have an answer, even a good one, that makes sense, but that only works for so long without lying on your actual filings.

If they keep saying attendance is up quarter after quarter yet revenue (which we see and know about price increases) keeps dropping disconnected from costs (which we see) we know something is off.

As for the numbers themselves, sure, there is a lot of accounting black magic you can do, but it still doesn't hold up over time. Combine that with Disney being willing to admit and even mention when bookings are down repeatedly over the years (including recently) and I see no reason to currently doubt them on that point.

I was one of the folks that was very much expecting attendance to be down in the last report, it wasn't. So, either I made a wrong assumption, or they are lying. Given the track record of their reporting, I see no reason to currently doubt them.

None of that means they don't have problems. They obviously do, it just didn't manifest in the way many of us thought it would last quarter.

The last part is key…

So they surprised us. That happens all the time. But what about next quarter? We’re talking very light park attendance (there really is no way to deny it…hell, the head of this board just said it - which isn’t often seen), bombing movies more than the IRA…and a lot of overall economic uncertain that has resulted in a reduction of discretionary spending this year (that is as fact) due in part to happy Gilmores crazy unhinged economic ramblings and daily flip flopping. Not at all good for a high price leisure peddler, is it?

So we shall see what the cards say this time?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

LL revenue is doing a lot of heavy lifting. IMHO.

I think that is agreed upon by everyone now…

But what’s it doing?
Option A: “it’s so magical and everyone loves yet another great disney product!!”

Option B: it’s covering for the losses they’re taking across the board on a day to day basis…but until that dries up we won’t have any definitely evidence of how the sausage is being made?


I’m 50/50 on which option I’m leaning towards

I’ll say this about lighting lane…they have managed to make easy money. It’s not the first or last time something they did has succeeded beyond reasonable expectations. It’s Disney…they get that benefit a lot.
LL is literally money for zero cost…none

It’s the second biggest racket lb for lb in the park. Impressive for sure.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don't disagree with a lot of that but, you can only BS so long before the numbers just don't agree with what you are saying.

For example, let's say they lied about attendance being up last quarter. Okay, then you would expect to see a drop in revenue for the segment. If there isn't one, people ask questions. Management could very well have an answer, even a good one, that makes sense, but that only works for so long without lying on your actual filings.

If they keep saying attendance is up quarter after quarter yet revenue (which we see and know about price increases) keeps dropping disconnected from costs (which we see) we know something is off.

As for the numbers themselves, sure, there is a lot of accounting black magic you can do, but it still doesn't hold up over time. Combine that with Disney being willing to admit and even mention when bookings are down repeatedly over the years (including recently) and I see no reason to currently doubt them on that point.

I was one of the folks that was very much expecting attendance to be down in the last report, it wasn't. So, either I made a wrong assumption, or they are lying. Given the track record of their reporting, I see no reason to currently doubt them.

None of that means they don't have problems. They obviously do, it just didn't manifest in the way many of us thought it would last quarter.

Not to mention Chapek is being sued for the claim of moving money around to make D+ (at that time) look better.

That's what happens when you fudge the numbers. Either the SEC or the shareholders come after you.

To anyone who thinks Disney is doing monkey business with their financials: Drop the dime on them. Report it to the SEC.

Oh, what's that? I've been saying that for over a decade and no one has actually reported anything that led to an investigation?

What does that say?

 

[Chi84]

Not to mention Chapek is being sued for the claim of moving money around to make D+ (at that time) look better.

That's what happens when you fudge the numbers. Either the SEC or the shareholders come after you.

To anyone who thinks Disney is doing monkey business with their financials: Drop the dime on them. Report it to the SEC.

Oh, what's that? I've been saying that for over a decade and no one has actually reported anything that led to an investigation?

What does that say?

It tells me there’s no evidence.

Or it could be a Pixie Dust conspiracy.

 

[Jrb1979]

Not to mention Chapek is being sued for the claim of moving money around to make D+ (at that time) look better.

That's what happens when you fudge the numbers. Either the SEC or the shareholders come after you.

To anyone who thinks Disney is doing monkey business with their financials: Drop the dime on them. Report it to the SEC.

Oh, what's that? I've been saying that for over a decade and no one has actually reported anything that led to an investigation?

What does that say?

What people are saying is not so much they are fudging the billions they made or faking the numbers of last quarter attendance. What people are saying is future numbers can be fudged in terms of future bookings, or capex.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Not to mention Chapek is being sued for the claim of moving money around to make D+ (at that time) look better.

That's what happens when you fudge the numbers. Either the SEC or the shareholders come after you.

To anyone who thinks Disney is doing monkey business with their financials: Drop the dime on them. Report it to the SEC.

Oh, what's that? I've been saying that for over a decade and no one has actually reported anything that led to an investigation?

What does that say?

It tells me they are just another tin hat internet conspiracy theorist, just shouting nonsense with no facts.

I mean sure the sec, internal auditors, external auditors, the activist shareholders, the board challengers, none of them have any evidence, but someone from your mom’s basement have the real truth.

It’s like people talking about bein surprised with earning reports or attendance figures. It’s not that they are surprised, it’s you have no real clue. They have no real access to numbers or data. But they see a YouTube clip, or can find a reservation on line and all of a sudden they know attendance is down

 

[MisterPenguin]

What people are saying is not so much they are fudging the billions they made or faking the numbers of last quarter attendance. What people are saying is future numbers can be fudged in terms of future bookings, or capex.

Saying current bookings of future reservations are up is a matter of fact that can be proved or disproved by paperwork.

Faking the numbers of last quarter can land you in jail or paying tens of millions in fines. And maybe a stockholder suit. And loss of job.

Future numbers based on projects could indeed be wrong without even the intent to be wrong, they're just educated guesswork.

Future capex has been very publicly announced and is part of a handshake agreement with Florida and Anaheim. You don't very publicly promise it and then not go through with it. (Especially since we see the capex being spent right now on refreshed rides, new attractions, and new shows.) Also, the following years' financial statements will show that you're a big fat liar if you don't spend the capex you promised.

Projecting an overly rosy future will bite you in the behind if it doesn't pan out. The financials of the next few quarters will show that... you're a big fat liar.

This works both ways. In order to make the conspiratorial claim that WDW hides away wings of their resorts to make their attendance rate look good is a moronic argument because it needs to be made quarter after quarter to keep up the claim that Disney is failing. But you can't keep closing off wings of hotels quarter after quarter... there'd be no rooms left.

 

[mysto]

Hey if any of you hear that accounting shenanigans are about to be exposed please let us know. Asking for a friend.

 

[Aries1975]

The other thing I noticed this summer is dining reservations are MUCH easier to get than before.

I have no insider info. I am just a mom who travels with a “tribe.” There will be 16 of us on our August trip. Our kids go back to school after labor so we very often travel 3rd/4th week of August due to pricing and lower crowds.

This is the first time I called group dining 59 days out (60 days out was Juneteenth and they were closed) and got everything I asked for on the days I wanted. Including 2 tables of 8 at O’hana - timed to watch the MK fireworks, 4 tables of 4 at Beaches and Cream and a party of 16 at HoopDeeDoo.

I am not complaining - I am thankful. I had an incredibly efficient and knowledgable cast member help me. But yes, bookings must be definitely down if my reservations are all at the same time vs 6:15, 6:30 and 6:45. And we are sitting 8 and 8 (obviously beaches and cream cannot accommodate a party of 8) vs 6+4+2+2+2.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I have no insider info. I am just a mom who travels with a “tribe.” There will be 16 of us on our August trip. Our kids go back to school after labor so we very often travel 3rd/4th week of August due to pricing and lower crowds.

This is the first time I called group dining 59 days out (60 days out was Juneteenth and they were closed) and got everything I asked for on the days I wanted. Including 2 tables of 8 at O’hana - timed to watch the MK fireworks, 4 tables of 4 at Beaches and Cream and a party of 16 at HoopDeeDoo.

I am not complaining - I am thankful. I had an incredibly efficient and knowledgable cast member help me. But yes, bookings must be definitely down if my reservations are all at the same time vs 6:15, 6:30 and 6:45. And we are sitting 8 and 8 (obviously beaches and cream cannot accommodate a party of 8) vs 6+4+2+2+2.

Similarly I was able to easily get all my dining reservations some of which were at popular places that used to be difficult to get all at the exact same time each day. 5:30pm. First time that has happened to me

 

[Chi84]

Similarly I was able to easily get all my dining reservations some of which were at popular places that used to be difficult to get all at the exact same time each day. 5:30pm. First time that has happened to me

Looks like Disney is finally becoming less of a headache to plan and visit.

I hope this lasts until our next family trip!