Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Purduevian]

Correct. 2024 was not crazy busy, and was relatively empty for a holiday, but 2023 4th of July was historically low.

2023: July 2nd-9th (Sunday to Sunday)

2024: June 30th-July 7th (Sunday to Sunday)

Looks like 2024 was lighter (daily average wait never crossed 25 mins in 2024, all days but 1 were over or at 25 in 2023).

Again, I know wait time isn't a perfect metric, but in this case I think it's pretty telling.

 

[monothingie]

I will say, the 4th this year was busier than 2023. But still very much below average. 2023 was legit the most empty I've seen the park in 30 years. It was deader than Cedar Point on a Wednesday in mid-May. Absolutely insane.

The big surprises for me were Labor Day and Memorial Day. Other than the fact F&W started Labor Day weekend this year, it was shocking how empty everything was.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

The big surprises for me were Labor Day and Memorial Day. Other than the fact F&W started Labor Day weekend this year, it was shocking how empty everything was.

I can't speak to memorial day but why the surprise on Labor Day? For the most part we have always found labor day to be a non peak time. All the southern schools are back in session, as are many/most of the western ones. For northern schools your out of HS black out periods for fall sports practices, and getting ready to go back to school, so most families have done their summer trips by labor day. We didn't notice an appreciable difference this labor day vs last or year before.

Now labor day 2021...that was a trip to dream about. Delta variant was just starting to circulate and parks were open as were schools. Kids did 3 rides in a row on BtM...not no wait times, they just let them sit in the cars 3 times in a row and didn't make them deboard, just road back to back to back.

 

[seabreezept813]

As a Canadian, it’s interesting to read about what I assume is an American experience re: school considerations.

My oldest will be in high school at the estimated time of our next WDW vacation, and all I did was check the school calendar to ensure we can avoid exam weeks.

We would still otherwise pull them out for two full weeks without concern about college/university prospects (at least in the first year or two of high school).

I teach at the high school level. I always tell the parents to enjoy the trips they can take with their kids when it works for them. I'm jealous I can't ever travel in the off season. As long as the student makes a decent effort in class I will help them catch up or exempt non-vital assignments. I won't provide "packets." I say check in with a peer and catch up when you get back.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Waitaminute,,,waitaminute,,,waitaFREAKINGminute.... Its $329 for one guest for one premier pass????? Surely, this is a sign of the end of the world.

Well they say “sold out” but what does that mean?

What arbitrary number of LLPPs were sold?

And, yes, the prices are ridiculous, but folks are buying them.

 

[Purduevian]

Well they say “sold out” but what does that mean?

What arbitrary number of LLPPs were sold?

And, yes, the prices are ridiculous, but folks are buying them.

Are you suggesting they are just making up the number of LLPP sold at random?

You don't think the almost 12 years of FP+, G+, VIP, Golden Oak, C33, and LLMP data is being used to determine guest flows/effects on LL/standby lines for each LLPP sold?

 

[LSLS]

2023: July 2nd-9th (Sunday to Sunday)
View attachment 831459
2024: June 30th-July 7th (Sunday to Sunday)
View attachment 831463
Looks like 2024 was lighter (daily average wait never crossed 25 mins in 2024, all days but 1 were over or at 25 in 2023).

Again, I know wait time isn't a perfect metric, but in this case I think it's pretty telling.

That's definitely not the whole story. First, MK was blacked out in 2024, it was lifted in 2023. DAK was a walk on for everything outside of FoP and MAYBE Navii (can't remember). I've said before, on the 4th in 2023, we rode everything at DHS in under 4.5 hours, including walking into a half empty Oga's. There were 2 rides with lines. RotR was 15 minutes, Slinky was 20. We may have waited 5ish for Aerosmith. We walked onto everything else (including Mickey train, ToT, and Midway Mania). Epcot that week we rode everything there, including walking into Space for drinks. 2024 had lines. They were manageable, but they were there.

 

[Purduevian]

That's definitely not the whole story. First, MK was blacked out in 2024, it was lifted in 2023. DAK was a walk on for everything outside of FoP and MAYBE Navii (can't remember). I've said before, on the 4th in 2023, we rode everything at DHS in under 4.5 hours, including walking into a half empty Oga's. There were 2 rides with lines. RotR was 15 minutes, Slinky was 20. We may have waited 5ish for Aerosmith. We walked onto everything else (including Mickey train, ToT, and Midway Mania). Epcot that week we rode everything there, including walking into Space for drinks. 2024 had lines. They were manageable, but they were there.

Hey, doesn't really matter to me. Personally, I'm going to believe data over a personal anecdote, but I am glad you seemed to have had a very good trip in both years.

Regardless, we are very off topic from LLPP.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Well they say “sold out” but what does that mean?

What arbitrary number of LLPPs were sold?

And, yes, the prices are ridiculous, but folks are buying them.

How is it hard to figure out what "sold out means"

For anything that is service based, or no-material based, a company has to set a number for what is going to be sold. Why would you use the term arbitrary to describe that? Every business gets to set the numbers of goods/items/services it provides. And there really isn't any need for them to disclose either the methodology for calculating the availability or the numbers that will be available...unless you want to drive sales with some type of limited availability type marketing.

As to the idea of prices being ridiculous....the objective evidence is directly contrary as "folks are buying them." The market demand dictates the price. It seems like Disney is hitting a pretty good price point here where these offerings sell out occasionally, especially on your high demand days, but aren't selling out completely all the time such that they would be underprices and potentially having a higher impact on lines.

 

[Disstevefan1]

How is it hard to figure out what "sold out means"

For anything that is service based, or no-material based, a company has to set a number for what is going to be sold. Why would you use the term arbitrary to describe that? Every business gets to set the numbers of goods/items/services it provides. And there really isn't any need for them to disclose either the methodology for calculating the availability or the numbers that will be available...unless you want to drive sales with some type of limited availability type marketing.

As to the idea of prices being ridiculous....the objective evidence is directly contrary as "folks are buying them." The market demand dictates the price. It seems like Disney is hitting a pretty good price point here where these offerings sell out occasionally, especially on your high demand days, but aren't selling out completely all the time such that they would be underprices and potentially having a higher impact on lines.

Thanks as always for your corrections.

I guess I am hung up on the term sold out as if its a widget and the warehouse is out of that widget.

Here, “sold out” is a number typed into a keyboard that can change at will if they choose to do so.

But you’re right, the number is not arbitrary, it’s a complex calculation made by qualified professionals to maximize the guest experience or maybe maximize profits, take your choice.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Are you suggesting they are just making up the number of LLPP sold at random?

You don't think the almost 12 years of FP+, G+, VIP, Golden Oak, C33, and LLMP data is being used to determine guest flows/effects on LL/standby lines for each LLPP sold?

Not random at all. The number is to sell the maximum number LLPPs possible.

I would love to know how they come up with the number of LLPPs “in stock” on a given day.

Did they subtract from the number of LLMPs and LLSPs when they added the LLPP offering?

Does the number of LLPPs change depending on the time of the year?

Does the number of LLPPs change depending on how many VIP tours sold that day?

 

[Disneylover69]

Not random at all. The number is to sell the maximum number LLPPs possible.

I would love to know how they come up with the number of LLPPs “in stock” on a given day.

Did they subtract from the number of LLMPs and LLSPs when they added the LLPP offering?

Does the number of LLPPs change depending on the time of the year?

Does the number of LLPPs change depending on how many VIP tours sold that day?

They want to have it sell out too create false scarcity. Disney did that same thing when it came to reselling the AP’s in 2023. They told everyone it might be limited and everyone flocked. For these they want them to sell out so days so that way people think it could sell out the day they want them and have them jump on them. It works pretty well as people fomo

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Thanks as always for your corrections.

I guess I am hung up on the term sold out as if its a widget and the warehouse is out of that widget.

Here, “sold out” is a number typed into a keyboard that can change at will if they choose to do so.

But you’re right, the number is not arbitrary, it’s a complex calculation made by qualified professionals to maximize the guest experience or maybe maximize profits, take your choice.

Anything that isn't a fixed item is based on a number that can be changed.

Take restaurant reservations, how does the restaurant decide when a day or time slot is sold out? How long is the assumption for time for meals for each party? If you raise/lower that assumed time, and the raise/lower your expected turnover times, you can change what you considered fully booked on any given night.

Same thing for promotional tickets/discounts/sales, "limited time/number" offers. The business decides when and how many to offer based on driving sales/customers. If can fluctuate based on time of year, previous sales, ect.

As to the complex calculations, of course it is made to maximize profits. How would that be a surprise? WDW is a business, every single decision it makes is made in order to maximize profits. Even decisions that are made that have the effect of enhancing/maximizing the guest experience are done for the purpose of 1) increasing the guest/customer number base; 2) increase the spending of the existing guest/customer base; or 3) retaining existing guests/customer base.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

They want to have it sell out too create false scarcity. Disney did that same thing when it came to reselling the AP’s in 2023. They told everyone it might be limited and everyone flocked. For these they want them to sell out so days so that way people think it could sell out the day they want them and have them jump on them. It works pretty well as people fomo

Not really, this isn't that that type of product.

For some products sure, you artificially limit the availability of the item/service to create scarcity and hopefully drive demand. Then as demand increases you slowly increase availability and increase sales and create a wider market.

But this product isn't really targeted for a larger general market. You don't really need this product to sell out on a consistent basis. There are only so many people who are going to drop 500+ (depending on party size and park) per day for an add on line skip. What your hoping for is that it occasionally sells out, so that on your higher attendance type days, anyone who is on the fence about is has that extra push. But you don't want it selling out constantly as the majority of your customer base are not buying this product, and you don't want them to start feeling like the lower available line skip option doesn't have value or that without using the high end product, there is no reason to go to the park at all.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Correct. 2024 was not crazy busy, and was relatively empty for a holiday, but 2023 4th of July was historically low.

2023 4th of July was also incredibly hot. The trendlines for the past two years are decreasing attendance. The 4th in 2023 was likely a one-off due to the heat though.

 

[DCBaker]

Lightning Lane Premier Pass at Magic Kingdom is now showing as sold out on December 27 and 28:

Find more pricing details from @wdwmagic at this link: https://www.wdwmagic.com/genieprice.htm

 

[Disstevefan1]

Anything that isn't a fixed item is based on a number that can be changed.

Take restaurant reservations, how does the restaurant decide when a day or time slot is sold out? How long is the assumption for time for meals for each party? If you raise/lower that assumed time, and the raise/lower your expected turnover times, you can change what you considered fully booked on any given night.

Same thing for promotional tickets/discounts/sales, "limited time/number" offers. The business decides when and how many to offer based on driving sales/customers. If can fluctuate based on time of year, previous sales, ect.

As to the complex calculations, of course it is made to maximize profits. How would that be a surprise? WDW is a business, every single decision it makes is made in order to maximize profits. Even decisions that are made that have the effect of enhancing/maximizing the guest experience are done for the purpose of 1) increasing the guest/customer number base; 2) increase the spending of the existing guest/customer base; or 3) retaining existing guests/customer base.

An excellent argument counselor.

We all must remember TWDC, especially its theme park business (their movie business, not so much) exists to MAKE MONEY!

To be honest their newest “product” LLPP is a beautiful thing, as close as you can come to 100 percent profit, “money for nothing” product that many folks who purchase this product will see an actual value in.

LLPP is really is a beautiful thing; supply and demand of this product can be controlled with a few keystrokes of a keyboard.

 

[HauntedPirate]

To be honest their newest “product” LLPP is a beautiful thing, as close as you can come to 100 percent profit, “money for nothing” product that many folks who purchase this product will see an actual value in.

 

[Disstevefan1]

They want to have it sell out too create false scarcity.

 

[Disneylover69]

An excellent argument counselor.

We all must remember TWDC, especially its theme park business (their movie business, not so much) exists to MAKE MONEY!

To be honest their newest “product” LLPP is a beautiful thing, as close as you can come to 100 percent profit, “money for nothing” product that many folks who purchase this product will see an actual value in.

LLPP is really is a beautiful thing; supply and demand of this product can be controlled with a few keystrokes of a keyboard.

Today I learned having people pay $400 bucks plus to skip a few rides is a “beautiful thing”