News Disney CEO Bob Iger says raising park prices and increasing capacity is not smart and criticizes previous policies

[bcoachable]

"In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years."

View attachment 703541

“Is this economy ACTUALLY stretching? Which offers you this chilling challenge… to find. Away out!”

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

Oh really?

View attachment 703373

Followed by

View attachment 703374

"Listen" and "acting upon" are two different actions.

 

[MisterPenguin]

"In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years."

View attachment 703541

The article I posted states that the determination of a recession is by a certain agency which does take in the two quarter rule of thumb, but at the same time also looks at other indicators. And according to that agency which everybody uses we did not have a recession. Those two quarters of shrinkage were rather minimal and at the same time unemployment was going down and other indicators were good. Certainly if you use that rule of thumb only, then we only had a recession, a mild one, for two quarters, and we're not in one now.

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

The article I posted states that the determination of a recession is by a certain agency which does take in the two quarter rule of thumb, but at the same time also looks at other indicators. And according to that agency which everybody uses we did not have a recession. Those two quarters of shrinkage were rather minimal and at the same time unemployment was going down and other indicators were good. Certainly if you use that rule of thumb only, then we only had a recession, a mild one, for two quarters, and we're not in one now.

Debating the definition of a recession and whether or not we're currently in one is a game of semantics. The truth is hundreds of millions of people are being squeezed for everything they're worth while, on a macro view, the economy continues to grow.

A human body can look healthy from the outside, but if the organs are failing to keep up, that's a problem regardless of what it looks like from a zoomed-out view. Call it whatever you like.

 

[drnilescrane]

That includes the loss of creatives, many of whom left the organization within the last few years (Rhode for example). We might be entering another “down phase” in their creative cycle (if that’s what you were referring to). If that is the case, I expect more pain points for the traditionalists, and some short term wins for the new content fans.

Without an obvious move like "Buy Pixar" I agree. I am concerned that the current leadership of WDAS isn't fit for purpose but I've got no idea what they do instead. All I'll say is that studio executive is a completely different skillset to director and especially writer.

I'm certainly not going to argue that they shouldn't have pushed out JL because they should have. Everybody focused on the "hugging" but the truth of that was more nuanced - he was a Lydia Tár, only letting the chosen few (in the boys club) have any opportunity to have influence. A solid stream of hits, yes, but that house of cards was going to come down eventually when the old guard retired and the troops realized who their leader was. Oh, and a messy drunk.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Debating the definition of a recession and whether or not we're currently in one is a game of semantics. The truth is hundreds of millions of people are being squeezed for everything they're worth while, on a macro view, the economy continues to grow.

A human body can look healthy from the outside, but if the organs are failing to keep up, that's a problem regardless of what it looks like from a zoomed-out view. Call it whatever you like.

Well, words have meaning. If the GDP is shrinking and other economic forces are bad, the 'squeezing' is real, and we know what the culprit is: a recession. A recession usually means job losses. (The current layoff craze from tech companies is not indicative of the entirety of the the job market.)

The 'squeeze' that's happening now is from a sudden jump in inflation. GDP is positive and job growth is up. So, this is a different monster requiring a different response.

Inflation means losing the value of one's wages by 4% - 10%. A layoff from a recession is losing the value of one's wages by 100%.

If all the people for the past three years who were predicting a big recession had instead been predicting bad inflation, they'd be crowing about it. (Some were predicting inflation during the time of pandemic subsidies, but that didn't hit until more than a year after those subsidies stopped.)

I'm not saying the economy is great when I say there isn't a recession. All I'm saying is there isn't a recession. GDP is positive. That's just a statement of fact.

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

Well, words have meaning. If the GDP is shrinking and other economic forces are bad, the 'squeezing' is real, and we know what the culprit is: a recession. A recession usually means job losses. (The current layoff craze from tech companies is not indicative of the entirety of the the job market.)

The 'squeeze' that's happening now is from a sudden jump in inflation. GDP is positive and job growth is up. So, this is a different monster requiring a different response.

Inflation means losing the value of one's wages by 4% - 10%. A layoff from a recession is losing the value of one's wages by 100%.

If all the people for the past three years who were predicting a big recession had instead been predicting bad inflation, they'd be crowing about it. (Some were predicting inflation during the time of pandemic subsidies, but that didn't hit until more than a year after those subsidies stopped.)

I'm not saying the economy is great when I say there isn't a recession. All I'm saying is there isn't a recession. GDP is positive. That's just a statement of fact.

I'm not arguing whether we're in a recession or not. I'm arguing that we don't need it to be considered a recession for many people to suffer.

And you can't limit inflation to a value between 4-10% when individual grocery items jump 50-100%, home insurance can quadruple year-to-year, gas remains stubbornly high, etc. etc.

 

[MisterPenguin]

And you can't limit inflation to a value between 4-10% when individual grocery items jump 50-100%, home insurance can quadruple year-to-year, gas remains stubbornly high, etc. etc.

I most certainly can when talking about averages.

If the prices of everything remained the same but bread went up 100%, would you say we're experiencing 100% inflation?

That's not how math works.

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

I most certainly can when talking about averages.

If the prices of everything remained the same but bread went up 100%, would you say we're experiencing 100% inflation?

That's not how math works.

Okay, sure. Let's go back to your original statement then:

Inflation means losing the value of one's wages by 4% - 10%. A layoff from a recession is losing the value of one's wages by 100%.

and let me rephrase it like this...

A layoff from a recession is losing the value of one's wages by 100%, but it will only impact 5% of the workforce. Inflation means losing the value of one's wages by 4% - 10%, but every single human being in the country feels the impact.

Now which is worse?

EDIT: and just to add personal commentary....a laid off individual can typically find another job eventually. Inflation is rarely ever undone. The Fed's goal is to reign in inflation, not deflate the current price of things.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The Fed's goal is to reign in inflation, not deflate the current price of things.

So the price of gas will always be $6/gallon?

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

So the price of gas will always be $6/gallon?

It’s not at $6, al least in most of the country. But gas is unique in that the price is volatile. I wouldn’t count on it going down anytime soon, though.

 

[Magenta Panther]

Another thing that is not smart is neglecting the parks so much and making so many bad creative decisions that the parks are not worth the too-high admissions.

 

[RSoxNo1]

If B.I. has the pricing returned to the 2014 /2015-time frame scale, I would take him seriously right now it's minimal tidbits and just words.

The approach to take is keeping pricing flat and/or completely restructure the ticketing system. The only price I could potentially see would be Genie+, but I'd be very surprised if the tickets themselves see a price cut.

 

[PSUDisney77]

The biggest price increases came under Iger and Staggs over 2012-2015. The increases came in the form of room discounts going away - no more Orbitz deals - all the big travel sites no loner gave discounts and Disney was being stingy. You used to be able to get $180/night Moderates or $280/night Deluxes. Today that's actually a good deal for Pop probably. This of course made DVC irrelevant for the longest time. Resort parking fees just tipped the scale for us. I cannot believe they reversed that given how parking fee happy Universal is too.

This comment made me look up my itinerary from May 2007. Booked through Travelocity a trip for myself and girlfriend at the time (we were engaged on that trip, still married). Below is what it all included for a total of $1830 bucks. In no way could you even sniff this price today. Yes it's 16 years later but holy crap have prices skyrocketed.

2 Roundtrip tickets from IAD to MCO
5 nights at Caribbean Beach, water view (We were placed in what was called South Trinidad then)
2 Magic Your Way tickets + Park Hopper + 2 days free
Travel Protection + Taxes

 

[GhostHost1000]

Another thing that is not smart is neglecting the parks so much and making so many bad creative decisions that the parks are not worth the too-high admissions.

Bingo