Disney Q1 2019 Earnings Report

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I clearly indicated it was a different way to look at the situation. Since none of us has a crystal ball we won't know for sure until later this year.

Indeed...it’s a debate and a fairly healthy one...

But your motivation is that it’s will be crushed in Orlando. My contention is that “crush” won’t amount to what the prevailing thought around here has been.

We may both be right. It may be an uncomfortable mess AND not result in huge gains. That is the worst case scenario for Disney.

Healthy speculation...the reveal is soon.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ok, so you don't believe that scenario. Honestly I think that is probably the least likely of anything stated. I have a hard time with the thought that people will think WDW will be less crowded. I also don't imagine the die hards (who is where the initial discussion originated with) are going to care if the reports say it is crowded.

Agree...Star Wars nuts aren’t gonna care...Californians aren’t deterred by crowds...and WDW will get slammed as much as you’d expect - I just don’t ageee necessarily with the reasons and dynamics and the net results.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think I remember those discussions. Honestly really good points were made both ways. Another thing to consider is if the resorts are already basically maxed out, are they going to be able to handle a lot more people who want to come in. People can stay off site, but as I've stated before, I think that opens up people to going to other parks/things as opposed to staying in the bubble (might lend to the idea of not seeing much of an increase at other WDW parks/more people heading to Universal). Obviously WDW attendance will increase. I'm going to be really interested in how much. Will it be an overall significant increase, or just a small increase with a much different distribution from years past. How many of those people will want to head to Harry Potter after a day at Star Wars? I can honestly say I don't have the first clue as to what will happen, I'm going with a completely open mind on it.

This x1000

Not only are the resorts maxed out...and studios can’t handle 15,000,000 (not even close - actually)...but because in jacking the pricing they Have eliminated a lot of the off property travelers from even affording a visit for more than a day. If you’re paying $121 a night at a Rodeway on Irlo Bronson...are you shelling out what a day cost?
Some yes, but a lot no. Disney is a COD and the middle class loses people by the second that don’t have the C.

What’s always lost in the quarterlies for 5-10 years is that attendance is Pretty flat in the aggregate. It’s a boom economy for longer than ever in modern times and travel is more and more accessible each year...
That alone should put the annual attendance in the 55 to 60 mil range by now. They are toiling in the low 50s still.

Why?
Several reasons...but two biggies are they’ve overused their resources and not constructed new ones fast enough and they are shrinking their customer pool through pricing.

Not at all surprising if you sit up in the nose bleeds
And look at the entire field of play.

 

[FCivish3]

Earnings call today. Disney Parks saw a 10% growth.

Spending on Disney Parks was up compared to previous quarters, spending 838 million.

Guest spending and occupancy was up. Attendance was comparable to Q1 2018.

I’ve been hearing nothing but how occupancy has been down for 6 months but spending was still up. Guess all that information was wrong.

wait a second, there wasnt a 30% drop in attendance?

Park attendance appears to flat and spending is up due to price inceeases...is another way to look at it.

Not only are the resorts maxed out...and studios can’t handle 15,000,000 (not even close - actually)...but because in jacking the pricing they Have eliminated a lot of the off property travelers from even affording a visit for more than a day. If you’re paying $121 a night at a Rodeway on Irlo Bronson...are you shelling out what a day cost?
Some yes, but a lot no. Disney is a COD and the middle class loses people by the second that don’t have the C.

What’s always lost in the quarterlies for 5-10 years is that attendance is Pretty flat in the aggregate. It’s a boom economy for longer than ever in modern times and travel is more and more accessible each year...

That alone should put the annual attendance in the 55 to 60 mil range by now. They are toiling in the low 50s still.

Why? Several reasons...but two biggies are they’ve overused their resources and not constructed new ones fast enough and they are shrinking their customer pool through pricing.

Attendance is really fairly flat, with only slight increases, if at all, but Revenue is up around 10%. That is actually a very large revenue gain. You can't keep that kind of growth up. But ESPECIALLY, because it isn't growth. It is just Disney raising prices and increasing profits on the backs of their visitors. In fact, it seems clear that is actually trying to Discourage increased visitors, and is using higher prices to keep attendance down. Eventually, they will reach a tipping point where most people give up on Disney, because of their extreme pricing, and start spending their money elsewhere. But the trouble is, once that happens, revenue will start to slide and every time they raise rates, it will slide more. Then they will be in a bind, having chased off many of their customers and not having actual growth.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Attendance is really fairly flat, with only slight increases, if at all, but Revenue is up around 10%. That is actually a very large revenue gain. You can't keep that kind of growth up. But ESPECIALLY, because it isn't growth. It is just Disney raising prices and increasing profits on the backs of their visitors. In fact, it seems clear that is actually trying to Discourage increased visitors, and is using higher prices to keep attendance down. Eventually, they will reach a tipping point where most people give up on Disney, because of their extreme pricing, and start spending their money elsewhere. But the trouble is, once that happens, revenue will start to slide and every time they raise rates, it will slide more. Then they will be in a bind, having chased off many of their customers and not having actual growth.

Preach....because you are correct, reverend.

The fact that constant price increases has pushed their “success” for going on 10 years is a huge fail.

A fail by the consumer to not push back and keep
Getting drunk off the sweet wine.

Recessions are the great equalizer...and that was when they guarded against it - which is over.

We will need a whole other forum to analyze when the day comes. It will come.

 

[mikejs78]

Attendance is really fairly flat, with only slight increases, if at all, but Revenue is up around 10%. That is actually a very large revenue gain. You can't keep that kind of growth up. But ESPECIALLY, because it isn't growth. It is just Disney raising prices and increasing profits on the backs of their visitors. In fact, it seems clear that is actually trying to Discourage increased visitors, and is using higher prices to keep attendance down. Eventually, they will reach a tipping point where most people give up on Disney, because of their extreme pricing, and start spending their money elsewhere. But the trouble is, once that happens, revenue will start to slide and every time they raise rates, it will slide more. Then they will be in a bind, having chased off many of their customers and not having actual growth.

That would be true if prices had been raised across the board by that much - but they haven't been. Guests are spending more - price increases are a part of it, but guests are buying more. The after hours events are very successful, for example.