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  1. lumberguy5

    Fireworks? Yep, it's happening, but not how you think.

    Supply is a hot mess right now. The Chinese factories went down in winter after having some issues with major explosions before COVID forced long term closures. The pandemic shipping issues are causing alot of problems with product just sitting in shipping containers not moving through toward...
  2. lumberguy5

    Fireworks? Yep, it's happening, but not how you think.

    I work it as a hobby, I am apprenticing to get a professional license in California. Unlike Disney, I only get to work on a show once a month typically (Tho it doesn't look I will be doing a July 4th show this year). 1.3g is the restricted kind, the first restriction is on net explosive...
  3. lumberguy5

    Fireworks? Yep, it's happening, but not how you think.

    Seems like an easy way to buy goodwill, especially since I doubt they will be able to or want to use 6 inch or larger shells. If they are paying the techs already, shows using cakes, candles, and comets would be very cheap. Smaller aerial shows wouldn't even be that expensive. 1.3g pyro is...
  4. lumberguy5

    Universal Puts Disney's Reopening on Defensive

    Fireworks don't expire, if stored in a dry location they are shelf stable. If the temp variations are large the chemical stabilizers will degrade but that is over years. Supply is an issue and the industry group for the manufacturers/wholesalers is predicting that there will be a 1/3 loss in...
  5. lumberguy5

    Avengers Campus - Reactions / Reviews

    Aerial view right over the construction.
  6. lumberguy5

    Shanghai Disneyland opens May 11

    Tourism isn't coming back until at least mid 2021 (and those are the good estimates), and the tourism sector companies are going to take protective measures to try and reduce their bleed. I won't argue that it is good or bad, but realistically it is the path that most companies will take. Disney...
  7. lumberguy5

    Shanghai Disneyland opens May 11

    If you cut back on CM hours and overall staffing it isn't hard to run the parks at breakeven. Knotts and Six Flags run on way lower attendance and ticket price numbers than Disney and aren't insolvent. Last year Disney net 6 billion in profit on 26 billion in revenue in their park's segment...
  8. lumberguy5

    Disney’s Q2 (Jan/Feb/Mar) FY 2020 Earnings Results Webcast on Tuesday, May 5, 4:30ET

    Direct to consumer aka D+ is rolling in cash. 4.1B up from 1.1B this quarter.
  9. lumberguy5

    Disneyland's Marketing Strategy for 2020??? Because 2019 Was A Mess!

    Coronavirus Ticket Offer - Present proof of antibodies for a 3 day parkhopper ticket for XXX dollars.
  10. lumberguy5

    A Pictorial Of An Abandoned Anaheim Resort District - How Does It Recover?

    This pilot has been doing flyovers around LA county to show the effects of the coronavirus. With the almost non-existant air traffic, he was able to get a fly through under ATC direction through the Disneyland TFR.
  11. lumberguy5

    Pyro techs are being asked to report on 3/29 for work..

    Professional pyro stored in dry environments doesn't expire, especially not in a month to month timeframe. I suspect that the issue is with the bunker magazines aren't in a "good" place capacity wise. If they are still having pyro delivered without firing the shows, their magazines might be...
  12. lumberguy5

    Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

    USC didn't even make it to the first day of online classes before they extended the no in person policy through March. Got an email saying no on campus events or spectators for sports as well.
  13. lumberguy5

    Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

    Vandenberg is extremely unlikely, there is no infrastructure to dock or unload a ship like that. Port Hueneme or San Diego are the only places that could house the 4 thousand people on the ship. The sleeping situation would also be less than ideal for many. Technically they could also dock the...
  14. lumberguy5

    Disneyland Resort's Last Day Of Operation Wait Times - Friday, March 13th.

    Possibly, but Cedar Fair has explained in their IR calls that they are passing 50% of admissions being APs. Knott's self reported an 8% increase in Jan/Feb attendance, but that was almost entirely based on the staggering 40% increase in AP sales. Cedar Fair is still trying to grow their AP...
  15. lumberguy5

    Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

    Even if Corona has peaked and things start returning to normal, Disney has taken a large beating. The lost revenue from the Asia parks, theaters, and future travel is going to be significant for the quarter and will be seen at year end. If Coronavirus keeps up, I imagine the downstream financial...
  16. lumberguy5

    Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

    If the flu killed 6% of people about 800 thousand US residents would be dead this year. The death rate for the flu is around 0.1% right now. Not to downplay the flu, but this year isn't a repeat of the Spanish Flu. Corona is scary because the 1% death rate is an average of 15%/8% for the...
  17. lumberguy5

    VQ/BGs (Virtual Queues/Boarding Groups)... Yay or Nay? (Better alternatives?)

    A 3-4 hour wait would likely be extended by at least an hour. The ride is rather fond of breaking down and occasionally for long periods of time. Remember that unlike DHS, Disneyland is barely making it 30 seconds without the primary BGs being gone, and any day with EMH is a few minutes bookout...
  18. lumberguy5

    VQ/BGs (Virtual Queues/Boarding Groups)... Yay or Nay? (Better alternatives?)

    I think you are overestimating the effect of APs and long multiday resort stays vs the backlash that would ensue. I strongly suspect that most FPs are going to resort guests (one week or less) or ticketed locals who if they would hit the cooldown it would only be for a single ride. However, you...
  19. lumberguy5

    Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance opening reports and using Boarding Groups at Disneyland

    Dueling Dragons is not close to any attraction Disney has. Two tracks with 6 trains, with 4 seats across for 32 riders per dispatch. The track size forces a large layout with high speed to be exciting. Theming beyond music selection is almost impossible as rider vision is heavily obscured for...
  20. lumberguy5

    Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance opening reports and using Boarding Groups at Disneyland

    2500 actual pph is a major requirement to lean on a ride. For Disney that would mean an Omnimover, a "boat" ride, or multiple "tracks". RotR probably could do 2500+, if they added more rows. Then after resizing the preshows/elements, they would have Shanghai's Pirates without the water. As much...
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