DisneylandForward

[Pizza Moon]

They clearly want DCA to rival Disneyland better.

I get the feeling they'd want to do a third park. It seems like a no-brainer.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

They clearly want DCA to rival Disneyland better.

I get the feeling they'd want to do a third park. It seems like a no-brainer.

I mean, the natural state of the business means that expansion must continue until they ultimately cannot due to some sort of limitation, whether it be physical (e.g. running out of land, which they haven't) or behavioral (e.g. in the case of WDW, we've hit the maximum vacation length the average visitor is willing to allow).

I'd argue a third park is inevitable. The question isn't if, it's a matter of what kind of park, when, etc.

 

[PiratesMansion]

Ostensibly the case for a third gate is compelling; however, there are also a lot of cons to moving to a third gate until they are absolutely certain it is necessary.

Beyond cost, you have the added logistical difficulties, the need for a cohesive theme that ideally isn't already part of the two existing parks, you'd need DCA to be at a certain level to not be cannibalized for attendance, and you'd also need the third gate to be a solid roster of attractions. I don't think the resort could really sustain two "Ok I guess" theme parks long-term, not that I'd be shocked if they tried to.

I'm sure it will happen at some point, though I'm certain it won't happen until they feel they really have no more expansion room in the other two parks and/or the numbers are undeniably in their favor.

 

[britain]

I'd argue a third park is inevitable. The question isn't if, it's a matter of what kind of park, when, etc.

And I suspect that while they feel they want to push forward with a “new kind of park” experiment (à la DCA 1.0’s combo of Uni and Knotts) they’re going to have some contingency plans so that it will be easy to pivot back to what they know best (DCA 2.0 and DAW).

 

[denyuntilcaught]

And I suspect that while they feel they to push forward with a “new kind of park” experiment (à la DCA 1.0’s combo of Uni and Knotts) they’re going to have some contingency plans so that it will be easy to pivot back to what they know best (DCA 2.0 and DAW).

True. But I also feel like this is giving modern Disney a lot of credit aka, thinking beyond the immediate fiscal year results.

 

[CoastalElite64]

 

[DLR92]

All Magic key tiers are able to reserve, spring break, good deal with SoCal Residents, and Kid’s summer price special are all at play.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not sure if this shows justification for a third park or just highlights how badly LL has screwed up the standby experience, it was posted before noon and most Lightning lanes are already gone for the day or hours away until the next available time… that signifies to me they are selling WAY too many Lightning lanes and it’s showing in the standby lines.

Just confirms to me we made the right choice not renewing our passes, my GF took her grandson (and his parents) for his first visit, her first visit in over a year, and when I asked her if it felt good to go back she said it did, but she also said she couldn’t wait to leave, they bought ILLs (for 4) for RSR, did all the cars rides (her grandson is a massive Cars fan), got lunch, did a few more small kid friendly rides like little Mermaid and the Carousel, met Mater and then left. He wanted to do the cars rides again but they knew he’d never survive 2 hours in line for RSR and even MJJ and LRR were over 30 minutes so they just left. $1,000 for a half day at DCA, I’ll be shocked if they go back for at least 4 or 5 years until he’s tall enough to ride everything.

Disney got their wish, they’ve turned her from a long time AP who went dozens of times a year into a one time visitor whose revenue per guest was high. When he was born 4 years ago she couldn’t wait til he was big enough she could buy him an AP and make it their thing, now she said it’s simply not worth it. Well done Disney.

 

[denyuntilcaught]

Not sure if this shows justification for a third park or just highlights how badly LL has screwed up the standby experience

I don't think wait times nor crowds on any given day are any indicator of justification for a third park given how well Disney is able to manipulate purchasing patterns.

I'd argue the few hard numbers we do have available to us that can guide us in that direction are 1) attendance via TEA Global Index Report; 2) hotel occupancy rates published via investor reports; 3)...? Probably something else I'm forgetting, but the list is small.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Not sure if this shows justification for a third park or just highlights how badly LL has screwed up the standby experience, it was posted before noon and most Lightning lanes are already gone for the day or hours away until the next available time… that signifies to me they are selling WAY too many Lightning lanes and it’s showing in the standby lines.

Just confirms to me we made the right choice not renewing our passes, my GF took her grandson (and his parents) for his first visit, her first visit in over a year, and when I asked her if it felt good to go back she said it did, but she also said she couldn’t wait to leave, they bought ILLs (for 4) for RSR, did all the cars rides (her grandson is a massive Cars fan), got lunch, did a few more small kid friendly rides like little Mermaid and the Carousel, met Mater and then left. He wanted to do the cars rides again but they knew he’d never survive 2 hours in line for RSR and even MJJ and LRR were over 30 minutes so they just left. $1,000 for a half day at DCA, I’ll be shocked if they go back for at least 4 or 5 years until he’s tall enough to ride everything.

Disney got their wish, they’ve turned her from a long time AP who went dozens of times a year into a one time visitor whose revenue per guest was high. When he was born 4 years ago she couldn’t wait til he was big enough she could buy him an AP and make it their thing, now she said it’s simply not worth it. Well done Disney.

It shows a lot more demand and not enough supply.

The LL critique is interesting. Like you mentioned rides that don't have LL also had a long wait time.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It shows a lot more demand and not enough supply.

The LL critique is interesting. Like you mentioned rides that don't have LL also had a long wait time.

LL affects everything, if all the major rides (with LL) have hour plus waits it pushes people to do the smaller (non LL) rides just for something to do.

It’s not solely LL either, the Hyperion still sits empty, there’s no parade, the non ride aspects of the parks are dwindling… Disney has a massive capacity issue and they seem to be doing everything they can to magnify it… it’s almost like they have a HUGE financial incentive to have insane lines everywhere. Wonder what that could be?

 

[mickEblu]

LL affects everything, if all the major rides (with LL) have hour plus waits it pushes people to do the smaller (non LL) rides just for something to do.

It’s not solely LL either, the Hyperion still sits empty, there’s no parade, the non ride aspects of the parks are dwindling… Disney has a massive capacity issue and they seem to be doing everything they can to magnify it… it’s almost like they have a HUGE financial incentive to have insane lines everywhere. Wonder what that could be?

Not a fan of LL or its effect on the park but I actually have a theory that it’s had a a slightly positive impact in non LL rides. When Fast Passes were free there was no pressure to ride all of the signature rides in a given day. When one is paying for LL now you have the motivation to try and ride all or most of the LL rides. I feel like the waits for the non LL rides are slightly shorter than they used to be.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not a fan of LL or its effect on the park but I actually have a theory that it’s had a a slightly positive impact in non LL rides. When Fast Passes were free there was no pressure to ride all of the signature rides in a given day. When one is paying for LL now you have the motivation to try and ride all or most of the LL rides. I feel like the waits for the non LL rides are slightly shorter than used to be.

Possibly, the last year we had APs it felt like all we did was stand in lines, maybe without a couple short FP lines scattered into our day it just made everything feel longer.

 

[Purduevian]

Hong Kong Disneyland basically fits on the TSL...

 

[Nirya]

LL affects everything, if all the major rides (with LL) have hour plus waits it pushes people to do the smaller (non LL) rides just for something to do.

It’s not solely LL either, the Hyperion still sits empty, there’s no parade, the non ride aspects of the parks are dwindling… Disney has a massive capacity issue and they seem to be doing everything they can to magnify it… it’s almost like they have a HUGE financial incentive to have insane lines everywhere. Wonder what that could be?

The Defunctland about lines ran the experiment and showed that Fastpass and LL tended to increase the wait for everything, because you fill your time waiting for your LL/FP by waiting for another ride.

 

[Nirya]

The Defunctland about lines ran the experiment and showed that Fastpass and LL tended to increase the wait for everything, because you fill your time waiting for your LL/FP by waiting for another ride.

(I will also note that my takeaway from the experiment was that the original Fastpass system was the best for the resort, as it lowered your average actual wait while increasing ridership at a fair rate compared to no Fastpass, while LL created a monster that had less people riding more attractions).

 

[CoastalElite64]

(I will also note that my takeaway from the experiment was that the original Fastpass system was the best for the resort, as it lowered your average actual wait while increasing ridership at a fair rate compared to no Fastpass, while LL created a monster that had less people riding more attractions).

I don't doubt the overall conclusion.

But the program is different at DL versus DW so results would vary depending on what he modeled it after.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Funny enough this was brought up in the shareholder meeting.

Like Josh pretty much said without saying LL intentionally impacts more at WDW than DL.