Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

"WBD today gave a price to the spinoff Discovery Global after advisors applied three different metrics. The first values the company at a low of $1.33 per share and a high of $3.24. Should Discovery Global become involved in a “potential future transaction,” this could rise to as much as $6.86, per a proxy filing made in the past few hours."

Street had this one right, whomever said it was worth more was not realizing the market in which we live now, which means that both suitors valued the linear assets basically the same. Meaning that the offer from Paramount for the entirety was at worst the same as Netflix when valuing the linear assets properly. WBD was gambling that they could get more for linear, but the Versant collapse after spin-off from Comcast likely has them coming back to reality, which is why the filing is more realistic.

Also the switch to an all-cash offer is going to require Netflix to take on a bunch more debt, to the tune of almost $10B more in bridge loans, something that WBD claimed was one of the reasons why they didn't go with Paramount. So a bit hypocritical if you ask me, if the cash/stock was better why not stick with it? If debt load was the reason not to go with another suitor then why stick with the one who just said they will have to raise even more debt to switch to all-cash? Shows that Netflix now feels its stock is not valued as highly as they first thought, and given the almost 30% drop since this all started, the market doesn't either.

If Netflix does end up with WB, so be it, but to me the Paramount deal was still better overall for all the reasons I stated previously.

And in other news on this, Netflix is down another almost 5% after hours today as Wall St is not liking future guidance and the additional debt Netflix just agreed to by switching to an all-cash deal even though they beat earnings.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I edited my previous post because, this same year Ne Zha 2 made over $2 billion, so no Zootopia 2 is NOT the highest grossing animated movie ever, but it is #2. And #1 as far as Disney, Pixar, or any made in the USA

 

[DKampy]

I edited my previous post because, this same year Ne Zha 2 made over $2 billion, so no Zootopia 2 is NOT the highest grossing animated movie ever, but it is #2. And #1 as far as Disney, Pixar, or any made in the USA

If you believe China’s numbers… I have my doubts considering China is the only country around the world putting out those blockbuster type numbers for the film… and China never shows the receipts for such claims

 

[MisterPenguin]

I edited my previous post because, this same year Ne Zha 2 made over $2 billion, so no Zootopia 2 is NOT the highest grossing animated movie ever, but it is #2. And #1 as far as Disney, Pixar, or any made in the USA

Outlets having been saying highest grossing *MPA* animated movie in order to get the headlines and be technically correct.

I guess when you're looking at worldwide figures, you include China, unless, of course, it was made in China.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Mercy looking like an all time awful movie that will bomb hard. Pratt lucky to have Starlord in his back pocket or he might be soon relegated to Netflix slop

 

[Disney Irish]

EU to review the WBD merger with both Netflix and Paramount at same time -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/warner-bros-suitors-face-rare-head-to-head-battle-for-eu-nod

EU Set to Review Rival Netflix and Paramount Skydance Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery | PYMNTS.com

European Union antitrust authorities are preparing to examine competing takeover proposals for Warner Bros. Discovery at the same time, placing Netflix

www.pymnts.com

So we'll get to see how the EU views both suitors.

 

[OzAn]

If you believe China’s numbers… I have my doubts considering China is the only country around the world putting out those blockbuster type numbers for the film… and China never shows the receipts for such claims

According to IMAX 2025 results report, Ne Zha 2 was the highest grossing film for IMAX in 2025 calendar year. IMAX is a Canadian listed company, are you saying they are lying about Ne Zha’s box office too?
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260107909783/en/

1. “Ne Zha 2” (Enlight) — $166.7 million
2. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Disney/20th Century Studios) — $112 million
3. “F1: The Movie” (Apple Films) — $97.6 million
4. “Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle” (Toho) — $95.9 million
5. “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount) - $75.8 million

As a kids movies, Ne Zha 2 doesn’t even necessitate watching in IMAX, unlike Avatar 3 which people prioritize watching in IMAX. To use Zooptopia 2, another kids movie as a comparison, in mid December 2025, Zootopia 2 IMAX box office was around $56m at a time when its box office was around $1B, or roughly 6% of total box office. Use that same ratio to extrapolate Ne Zha 2’s IMAX box office to all formats and you will see $2B+ total box office checks out.

China currently has two real time box office tracking systems from competing companies that keep each other in check and tracks box office in real time - it's updated every second with every single ticket sold, no other system in the world is that fast and transparent.

And before anyone post newslink about Chinese theatres stealing box office from 10 years ago again, it was precisely because of these issues from the past that the current advanced tracking system was developed to do real time reporting. Chinese distributors / production companies are listed companies, some even on NASDAQ, they have shareholders to report to, they have auditors auditing them, and their shareholders too demand receipts, hence the current real time tracking system was created. All the Hollywood major studios, and sites like Boxoffice mojo and Numbers.com rely on the same Chinese tracking system to do their weekly global box office reporting. It's not some random number reported by the CCP.

As for why the movie didn't do big numbers outside China? it is as simple as they never bothered marketing it much globally as it was made for the Chinese market. Even then it still earned $23m in US and if you looked into how much the majority of non-English films earn in North America, that is a substantial amount already.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[DKampy]

My 2 favorite movies of the year…. IMO both will be classics in 20 years

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Avatar and Zootopia just feasting on zero competition for weeks now. I never will understand why studios don't have more movies during this time of year and instead try to cram everything in late May to Aug

 

[Disney Irish]

Teddy is being called in front of the Senate in an antitrust hearing, looks like the smooth regulatory approval that he was expecting isn't going to be so smooth.

Netflix Chief Ted Sarandos to Testify at Senate Antitrust Hearing About Warner Bros. Deal

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos next month will go before a Senate committee to defend the streamer's $83 billion deal to buy Warner Bros.'s studios and streaming business -- and field questions about its antitrust implications.

variety.com

Meanwhile Paramount extended their offer -

David Ellison Isn’t Giving Up Warner Bros. Quest: Paramount Skydance Extends Deadline for Hostile Takeover Offer

David Ellison's Paramount Skydance extended the deadline for its hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, continuing its unlikely attempt to derail Netflix's deal.

variety.com

 

[Andrew C]

Teddy is being called in front of the Senate in an antitrust hearing, looks like the smooth regulatory approval that he was expecting isn't going to be so smooth.

When you have skepticism coming from both sides, you're in a bit of a pickle. Continue to see how this plays out...

 

[Disney Irish]

When you have skepticism coming from both sides, you're in a bit of a pickle. Continue to see how this plays out...

Yeah I can't see this just sailing through, if approved there will have to be concessions I'm guessing. And that doesn't even account for what the EU is going to require.

 

[Disney Irish]

FCC now raising concerns over Netflix acquiring WBD -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/fcc-chief-sees-competition-concerns-in-netflix-warner-deal

 

[Disney Irish]

Monster Winter Storm Takes Its Toll On Box Office: Lowest Weekend YTD With $58M+; ‘Mercy’ Eyes $12M+ U.S. Debut; Top Exhibitors Closing – Update

There's one major studio wide entry this weekend, Amazon MGM Studios' $60M dystopian future thriller, Mercy starring Chris Pratt, and while it did $1.5M in previews in yesterday, the entire 3-day outlook could be impacted by the looming winter storm that's hitting Texas to New England. C

deadline.com

 

[Nevermore525]

FCC now raising concerns over Netflix acquiring WBD -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/fcc-chief-sees-competition-concerns-in-netflix-warner-deal

Interesting that he’s chiming in when no broadcasting licenses are trading places and wouldn’t actually be able to have any decision over this deal. But far be it from anything to operate above board currently.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Interesting that he’s chiming in when no broadcasting licenses are trading places and wouldn’t actually be able to have any decision over this deal. But far be it from anything to operate above board currently.

He's in charge of the broadcast company whining about not winning the buy-out!!

 

[Disney Irish]

Interesting that he’s chiming in when no broadcasting licenses are trading places and wouldn’t actually be able to have any decision over this deal. But far be it from anything to operate above board currently.

TCM is actually part of the deal, which includes the cable channel (not to mention HBO and its various channels), so there is a FCC licensing component here. So my guess is they do have a bit of a say, even if the cable channels included don't survive much passed any merger.

 

[Nevermore525]

TCM is actually part of the deal, which includes the cable channel, so there is a FCC licensing component here. So my guess is they do have a bit of a say, even if the channel doesn't survive much passed any merger.

Can you find TCMs FCC license? Fairly certain they do not have one as cable channels don’t operate under the FCCs purview.

Also Carr literally says he has no authority to review it:

FCC Chairman Says There Are ‘Legitimate Competition Concerns’ With Netflix’s Warner Bros. Deal — but His Agency Has No Authority to Review It

Brendan Carr, the Trump-appointed FCC chairman, said Netflix's proposed Warner Bros. deal raises 'competition concerns.' However, the FCC does not have any authority to review the pact.

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Can you find TCMs FCC license? Fairly certain they do not have one as cable channels don’t operate under the FCCs purview.

Also Carr literally says he has no authority to review it:

FCC Chairman Says There Are ‘Legitimate Competition Concerns’ With Netflix’s Warner Bros. Deal — but His Agency Has No Authority to Review It

Brendan Carr, the Trump-appointed FCC chairman, said Netflix's proposed Warner Bros. deal raises 'competition concerns.' However, the FCC does not have any authority to review the pact.

variety.com

You're probably right, that doesn't mean they won't have input on the deal even if its not an official regulatory review.

My guess is that all agencies will scrutinize this deal no matter who is the ultimate acquirer, including congress who is already carting off people for hearings.