Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

A quick Mid-Holiday Box Office update, gang.

But first, a Pop Quiz: Did you get your NYE outfit dropped off at the dry cleaners in time to pick it up by Tuesday?!? I did. If you failed this Pop Quiz, you still have time tomorrow morning first thing!

Burbank had the number one and number two movies at the American box office this mid-holiday weekend, which has got to feel nice for them after the roller coaster year they had with more dips than crests.

Have a happy New Year celebration everyone! Don't forget Uber/Lyft are your friends this week, even with surge pricing!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for January 16, 2026

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of January 16, 2026

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I do think part of it could be the time of year… with much of the country taking vacation during the holidays, with family, having some free, and I believe the holidays is the one and only time some people go to the movies…

It may also help there is something for everyone right now Avatar the four quadrant family,, Anaconda: the silly comedy, Housemaid: the thriller/horror, Somg Sung Blue: The older adult and Marty Supreme: The awards crowd… plus you still have films like Zootopia sticking around… I am actually surprised Avatar is the only blockbuster chasing film released in the Christmas corridor

My Wife’s mom was a huge Neil Diamond fan and recently died so she really wanted to see Song Sung Blue…. But when we were going to purchase Tickets it was completely sold out except for the front 2 rows…. Caught me off guard… as that movie is in the lower part of the top 10 this week and I tried to purchase four or five hours before the movie set release time… so we are seeing Anaconda instead…. Hopefully it is ok… I can see it going either way

We saw it Christmas night at Disney Springs. My husband suggested it because all showings of Avatar were nearly sold out (we don’t like front row.)

It was pretty good, not great IMO. I couldn’t get Wolverine out of my head.

Much like the Springsteen movie (as opposed to the Queen or Elton films) there is a bummer aspect.

Also, much of the music wasn’t top tier hits. I guess because he had so many in The Jazz Singer?

Just FYI, what many don't realize (not saying you don't), Song Sung Blue isn't about Neil Diamond, its about a Neil Diamond husband and wife (wife is a Patsy Cline impersonator) cover band from the late 80s/early 90s called Lightning and Thunder and their story.

I think its doing well because many thought it was a Neil Diamond biography.

As we exited the theater, the first words out of my husband’s mouth were: “I thought this was about Neil Diamond’s life.”

I could’ve seen Anaconda.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I personally don't get it. I saw the first film and did not like it. I could not tell you the name of a single character in that film. I don't know anyone personally that has ever said they enjoyed any of the Avatar films - none of my friends, family or co-workers. I don't know anyone who has ever mentioned looking forward to seeing any of these films.

I'm 50 years old and have 13 nieces and nephews between 30 years old and 15 years old. I talk pop culture with them constantly. Endless conversations about the MCU, Star Wars, Stranger Things, Game of Thrones, Harry Potter (they talk about it; I find it disinteresting), Lord of the Rings ... I can't ever remember having a conversation related to Avatar.

Yet, someone is watching these films because they make a ton of money.

I think Avatar falls into the spectacle film category and those still benefit from the big screen… the big difference between Avatar and other spectacle films like Jurassic World, Marvel, Star Wars, etc is Avatar still gets good audience reviews and positive word of mouth, the rest get butts in seats for a week or 2 before they quickly fall off due to poor word of mouth.

 

[Prince-1]

We saw it Christmas night at Disney Springs. My husband suggested it because all showings of Avatar were nearly sold out (we don’t like front row.)

It was pretty good, not great IMO. I couldn’t get Wolverine out of my head.

Much like the Springsteen movie (as opposed to the Queen or Elton films) there is a bummer aspect.

Also, much of the music wasn’t top tier hits. I guess because he had so many in The Jazz Singer?



As we exited the theater, the first words out of my husband’s mouth were: “I thought this was about Neil Diamond’s life.”

I could’ve seen Anaconda.

Have you seen Marty Supreme yet? It was a great movie and Timothée Chalamet was fantastic. He is definitely going to be nominated for best actor again.

 

[Figments Friend]

Avatar Fire & Ash is going to make even more money in the next couple of weeks, simply because i have not seen it yet.
Been waiting until the mad rush is over, and honestly I am just too buried in work at the moment at this time of year.

I have a double showing coming up next week…after the New Years break is over for the local schools….and that is when I am hitting up my local IMAX.
Gotta go to Pandora the best way possible…IMAX 3D, baby!
So once I make my financial contribution, the numbers will boost considerably!

Take my money, Mr. Cameron.
You have yet to disappoint.

Pandora for the win!
Bring on ‘Avatar 4’……!!

-

 

[Disney Analyst]

Avatar Fire & Ash is going to make even more money in the next couple of weeks, simply because i have not seen it yet.
Been waiting until the mad rush is over, and honestly I am just too buried in work at the moment at this time of year.

I have a double showing coming up next week…after the New Years break is over for the local schools….and that is when I am hitting up my local IMAX.
Gotta go to Pandora the best way possible…IMAX 3D, baby!
So once I make my financial contribution, the numbers will boost considerably!

Take my money, Mr. Cameron.
You have yet to disappoint.

Pandora for the win!
Bring on ‘Avatar 4’……!!

-

We are seeing a matinee tomorrow. Granted it’s a VIP 19+ theatre, so smaller than the usual theatre, but it’s pretty much sold out.

 

[Disney Irish]

How Stitch Became Disney’s MVP of 2025

The mischievous alien starred in a billion-dollar grossing film, sold more than $4 billion in merchandise and took over for Mickey Mouse on a national tour.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I personally don't get it. I saw the first film and did not like it. I could not tell you the name of a single character in that film. I don't know anyone personally that has ever said they enjoyed any of the Avatar films - none of my friends, family or co-workers. I don't know anyone who has ever mentioned looking forward to seeing any of these films.

I'm 50 years old and have 13 nieces and nephews between 30 years old and 15 years old. I talk pop culture with them constantly. Endless conversations about the MCU, Star Wars, Stranger Things, Game of Thrones, Harry Potter (they talk about it; I find it disinteresting), Lord of the Rings ... I can't ever remember having a conversation related to Avatar.

Yet, someone is watching these films because they make a ton of money.

One term, FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. It happens with many Event films that people think they need to experience so they aren't the only one who didn't go. For example was Mario a great movie, no, but everyone went because it was a nostalgia play that everyone wanted to experience for themselves. Same with Minecraft and many other films that have done really well over the last couple of years. This is the era we live in now, its a type of cultural touchstone of a point in time, "Did you see Avatar 2, oh yeah I saw it 3 times".

 

[Disney Analyst]

One term, FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. It happens with many Event films that people think they need to experience so they aren't the only one who didn't go. For example was Mario a great movie, no, but everyone went because it was a nostalgia play that everyone wanted to experience for themselves. Same with Minecraft and many other films that have done really well over the last couple of years. This is the era we live in now, its a type of cultural touchstone of a point in time, "Did you see Avatar 2, oh yeah I saw it 3 times".

Since Avatar first came to be, there has been a group that reject it, downplay it, and think those who enjoy it are tasteless. They just don’t “get it”.

But when you look at both commercial success, alongside the ratings from the general audience, clearly these films are well liked and resonating. It’s gotta be more than just “FOMO”, imo.

 

[Disney Irish]

Since Avatar first came to be, there has been a group that reject it, downplay it, and think those who enjoy it are tasteless. They just don’t “get it”.

But when you look at both commercial success, alongside the ratings from the general audience, clearly these films are well liked and resonating. It’s gotta be more than just “FOMO”, imo.

I mean if you look at most of the comments about it, its all surrounding the visuals. The story is the least thing talked about. So resonating I think is the wrong word here. There is nothing wrong with something be a spectacle that causes FOMO.

 

[DKampy]

Since Avatar first came to be, there has been a group that reject it, downplay it, and think those who enjoy it are tasteless. They just don’t “get it”.

But when you look at both commercial success, alongside the ratings from the general audience, clearly these films are well liked and resonating. It’s gotta be more than just “FOMO”, imo.

I believe part of it is people discount the older demo’s…. Avatar is bringing in people that don’t go to the movies much any more…. Like my mid 70’s parents

Also people do enjoy dunking on Avatar… that the first was Dancing with wolves in space…. A lot of movies borrow from somewhere else…heck the original Star Wars borrowed heavily from 7th Samurai… the general audience does not care…. Sometimes us that follow pop culture don’t consider we are in the minority…. The average person…hey we had a great experience watching The last Avatar….lets see the next one

 

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Disney Irish]

Here is the actual article, I've been saying for a long time that almost every year is a continual downward trend for theaters, and this confirms that 2025 is no different, its going to end up falling behind or just be even with 2024 (depending on how you calculate it).

The Movie Theater Comeback That Wasn’t: Why 2025 Was Such a Dud for Struggling Cinemas

The box office is struggled to rebound in 2025 as hits like 'Zootopia 2,' 'Avatar 3' and 'Superman' couldn't lift ticket sales.

variety.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I see this as both a bad and a good thing, the bad is it shows the downturn wasn’t a temporary Covid thing, it’s now been 5 years since Covid and it’s becoming more clear every year theaters aren’t going to return to the pre-Covid numbers, the good is I think it also shows there’s a consistent market for theaters still, it’s just a smaller market than it was.

I’ve thought for several years now that theaters were going to have to adjust from 16 theater multiplexes to 8 theater multiplexes, even thought for a while they may have to return to the 1-2 screen theaters from my youth… I now feel pretty confidant that the 8 screen theater can likely survive, especially as more and more convert to the newer lazy boy style seating that creates fewer tickets but a more premium experience at a higher average price.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I see this as both a bad and a good thing, the bad is it shows the downturn wasn’t a temporary Covid thing, it’s now been 5 years since Covid and it’s becoming more clear every year theaters aren’t going to return to the pre-Covid numbers, the good is I think it also shows there’s a consistent market for theaters still, it’s just a smaller market than it was.

I’ve thought for several years now that theaters were going to have to adjust from 16 theater multiplexes to 8 theater multiplexes, even thought for a while they may have to return to the 1-2 screen theaters from my youth… I now feel pretty confidant that the 8 screen theater can likely survive, especially as more and more convert to the newer lazy boy style seating that creates fewer tickets but a more premium experience at a higher average price.

The big theatres near us rarely sell out these days, whereas the 19+ VIP theatres that have far less seats, are selling out. And likely a much bigger spend per guest, with the higher ticket price, and full service food and beverage (hello alcohol sales!!)

This is the way.

 

[Disney Irish]

I see this as both a bad and a good thing, the bad is it shows the downturn wasn’t a temporary Covid thing, it’s now been 5 years since Covid and it’s becoming more clear every year theaters aren’t going to return to the pre-Covid numbers, the good is I think it also shows there’s a consistent market for theaters still, it’s just a smaller market than it was.

I’ve thought for several years now that theaters were going to have to adjust from 16 theater multiplexes to 8 theater multiplexes, even thought for a while they may have to return to the 1-2 screen theaters from my youth… I now feel pretty confidant that the 8 screen theater can likely survive, especially as more and more convert to the newer lazy boy style seating that creates fewer tickets but a more premium experience at a higher average price.

I don't know if decreasing the amount of screens is the answer, but theaters are going to need to upgrade almost all their screens to the premium screens, those are the ones that sell.

 

[Serpico Jones]

I see this as both a bad and a good thing, the bad is it shows the downturn wasn’t a temporary Covid thing, it’s now been 5 years since Covid and it’s becoming more clear every year theaters aren’t going to return to the pre-Covid numbers, the good is I think it also shows there’s a consistent market for theaters still, it’s just a smaller market than it was.

I’ve thought for several years now that theaters were going to have to adjust from 16 theater multiplexes to 8 theater multiplexes, even thought for a while they may have to return to the 1-2 screen theaters from my youth… I now feel pretty confidant that the 8 screen theater can likely survive, especially as more and more convert to the newer lazy boy style seating that creates fewer tickets but a more premium experience at a higher average price.

Exhibitors will also have to cut down the number of movie theaters in the US.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I don't know if decreasing the amount of screens is the answer, but theaters are going to need to upgrade almost all their screens to the premium screens, those are the ones that sell.

That could work too, either way I think theaters are fine, they just need to adjust to the new demand, whether that’s going from 16 theaters to 8 theaters, or decreasing from 200 seats to 100 “lounge” seats I think there’s a path forward for them to co-exist with streaming.

According to box office mojo there were 993 movies released domestically in 2018, this year it’s going to be about 670, I think that’s a winning strategy for the studios but theaters need to adjust to that new reality also.

 

[Disney Irish]

Exhibitors will also have to cut down the number of movie theaters in the US.

Many regional theaters are already closing, so that is happening. And even many of the national chains are considering closing theaters.

 

[Disney Irish]

That could work too, either way I think theaters are fine, they just need to adjust to the new demand, whether that’s going from 16 theaters to 8 theaters, or decreasing from 200 seats to 100 “lounge” seats I think there’s a path forward for them to co-exist with streaming.

According to box office mojo there were 993 movies released domestically in 2018, this year it’s going to be about 670, I think that’s a winning strategy for the studios but theaters need to adjust to that new reality also.

As I've mentioned in similar previous discussions, I think theatrical becomes a boutique business. One that is similar to what it was in the golden age, where it becomes an event that consumers go to once or twice a year and get all dressed up for. We're basically almost there now.