Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Andrew C]

 

[Serpico Jones]

Paramount buying WBD would be an economically irrational move but that’s never stopped an egomaniac nepo baby before.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Evidently WBD shareholders aren't convinced that the Netflix bid is the best option, they are "very open" to having Paramount increase their bid -

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/warner-bros-discovery-shareholder-harris-associates-says-open-revised-paramount-2025-12-19/

It's yet to be seen if that 4% of shareholders represents the majority.

 

[Disney Irish]

It's yet to be seen if that 4% of shareholders represents the majority.

4% is a pretty large single holder. I’ve seen reports of a few other large shareholders being swayed in Paramounts direction. Whether they represent a large enough block remains to be seen.

It’ll be an interesting couple weeks to see if Paramount can sway enough vote to overturn the BoD or if Netflix wins out.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Domestic opening estimate for Avatar is between $85-$90 million at the moment

That's down quite a bit from Way of Water's $134 million opening, but that movie went on to earn over 5 times that

Anything at or above $424 million would still make it the highest grossing domestic release of the year

Zootopia continues to run way behind Moana 2 domestically day to date. $268 million after 23 days vs $345 million for Moana. If the trend continues, I don't think it will hit $400 million domestically, even with holiday business.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Merry Christmas, gang!

As I'm just about to head to San Diego for a few weeks, I'll be putting the Global Command Center on auto-pilot. Because we've all got plenty of parties for hosting, marshmallows for roasting, etc., I'm sure things will be quiet around here any way. But I wish you all the merriest of Christmases, the warmest of Chanukah nights #4 thru #8, and here's to plenty of box office hijinks to come in 2026!

Sometime that first week of January, when the family has left, we'll do the big 2025 Burbank Box Office Recap. Until then, from The Numbers... Avatar 3 is off and galloping with a $12 Million preview day yesterday, likely to be the first Billion Dollar Movie of 2026. Zootopia 2 is closing in on $300 Million domestically, and Ella McCay just got past $3 Million.

View attachment 898171

And finally, us old folks gave America some of the best Christmas TV Specials the world has ever known; from Peanuts to Frank Sinatra to The Osmonds to Dean Martin to Bob Hope and on and on. But I am of the opinion that the absolute best Christmas Special on TV didn't arrive until the late 1980's, with Pee Wee's Playhouse Christmas Special.

As my Christmas gift to you all, here's the ridiculously fabulous opening number of that special, perhaps some of the finest Television artistry America ever produced! Charo! Annette! Marines! (Full screen! Sound up!)

And a Merry Christmas to you, too, TP2000! Have a lovely holiday in San Diego!

 

[Disney Analyst]

Domestic opening estimate for Avatar is between $85-$90 million at the moment

That's down quite a bit from Way of Water's $134 million opening, but that movie went on to earn over 5 times that

Anything at or above $424 million would still make it the highest grossing domestic release of the year

Zootopia continues to run way behind Moana 2 domestically day to date. $268 million after 23 days vs $345 million for Moana. If the trend continues, I don't think it will hit $400 million domestically, even with holiday business.

Maybe Americans just don’t go to movies anymore?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Sidenote: Warner Brothers just announced a 5% price increase on all music across the board. (Physical media.) (again.) (no reason. )

 

[Disney Irish]

Sidenote: Warner Brothers just announced a 5% price increase on all music across the board. (Physical media.) (again.) (no reason. )

Gotta rake in all that money before they cut that business and move to all digital.

 

[DKampy]

Gotta rake in all that money before they cut that business and move to all digital.

Maybe I am wrong….but I am not sure they will cut all physical media…. When it comes to music…. As far as I am aware….vinyl still does ok… given today’s climate

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe I am wrong….but I am not sure they will cut all physical media…. When it comes to music…. As far as I am aware….vinyl still does ok… given today’s climate

Doing "ok" being relative here. Vinyl is a niche market, collectors and such, but as a long term consistent buy globally for consumers as a whole, doubt it. Plus you have to think how many artists are actually releasing new records on vinyl in the long term when its cheaper and easier to release it digitally. Even if it has seen a resurgence in recent years the long term viability is likely not there.

It should also be noted that Warner Music Group, which is what assumed was being discussed here, is not part of Warner Brothers Discover that is being sold, its a separate entity that was spun off years ago. And their recent deals with Tiktok and some AI firms over the last couple years indicates they are all in on digital platforms not legacy physical media.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Doing "ok" being relative here. Vinyl is a niche market, collectors and such, but as a long term consistent buy globally for consumers as a whole, doubt it. Plus you have to think how many artists are actually releasing new records on vinyl in the long term when its cheaper and easier to release it digitally. Even if it has seen a resurgence in recent years the long term viability is likely not there.

It should also be noted that Warner Music Group, which is what assumed was being discussed here, is not part of Warner Brothers Discover that is being sold, its a separate entity that was spun off years ago. And their recent deals with Tiktok and some AI firms over the last couple years indicates they are all in on digital platforms not legacy physical media.

I don’t know, I’m no expert… but every new release I see has a vinyl variant, sometimes several.

I’m sure @Tony the Tigger could shed some insight into the vinyl market in 2025.

 

[Phroobar]

I don’t know, I’m no expert… but every new release I see has a vinyl variant, sometimes several.

I’m sure @Tony the Tigger could shed some insight into the vinyl market in 2025.

Compact Discs are also making a comeback.
In recent years, the compact disc market has seen a resurgence in certain demographics, particularly among audiophiles and collectors. The market's dynamics are influenced by various factors, including the growth of vinyl records and an increased appreciation for physical music formats. According to a report from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), physical music sales, including compact discs, accounted for about 12% of total music revenue in 2022, highlighting a persistent demand despite the dominance of streaming platforms. This demand is driven not only by nostalgia but also by the unique sound quality that CDs offer.

 

[TalkingHead]

I saw Way of Water when it came out and I have no recollection of how that movie ended. I remember a whale with subtitles, but there was no compelling cliffhanger that left me saying I wanted to see what was next.

 

[Figments Friend]

Merry Christmas, gang!

As I'm just about to head to San Diego for a few weeks, I'll be putting the Global Command Center on auto-pilot. Because we've all got plenty of parties for hosting, marshmallows for roasting, etc., I'm sure things will be quiet around here any way. But I wish you all the merriest of Christmases, the warmest of Chanukah nights #4 thru #8, and here's to plenty of box office hijinks to come in 2026!

Sometime that first week of January, when the family has left, we'll do the big 2025 Burbank Box Office Recap. Until then, from The Numbers... Avatar 3 is off and galloping with a $12 Million preview day yesterday, likely to be the first Billion Dollar Movie of 2026. Zootopia 2 is closing in on $300 Million domestically, and Ella McCay just got past $3 Million.

View attachment 898171

And finally, us old folks gave America some of the best Christmas TV Specials the world has ever known; from Peanuts to Frank Sinatra to The Osmonds to Dean Martin to Bob Hope and on and on. But I am of the opinion that the absolute best Christmas Special on TV didn't arrive until the late 1980's, with Pee Wee's Playhouse Christmas Special.

As my Christmas gift to you all, here's the ridiculously fabulous opening number of that special, perhaps some of the finest Television artistry America ever produced! Charo! Annette! Marines! (Full screen! Sound up!)

Pee Wee rules.

I have the ‘Pee Wee’s Playhouse Christmas Special’ on VHS tape…..yes, the official release from 1987 …and watch it almost every season!
Yes, with a real authentic VHS player…and an old ‘tube’ tv….and it looks GREAT!

Today’s useless fact you never knew -
The instrumental music composed for this special, as well as all episodes of ‘Pee Wee’s Playhouse’ were composed by Mark Mothersbaugh.
You may know him best as the lead singer of the eccentric art band DEVO…or perhaps his other instrumental musical work for the animated tv show ‘Rugrats’…!

Ho ho ho!
Merry Christmas, TP!



-

 

[Figments Friend]

YES!

‘A’ is for AWESOME…!

Cameron does it again.
There is NO stopping this man.

-

 

[Figments Friend]

Compact Discs are also making a comeback.
In recent years, the compact disc market has seen a resurgence in certain demographics, particularly among audiophiles and collectors. The market's dynamics are influenced by various factors, including the growth of vinyl records and an increased appreciation for physical music formats. According to a report from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), physical music sales, including compact discs, accounted for about 12% of total music revenue in 2022, highlighting a persistent demand despite the dominance of streaming platforms. This demand is driven not only by nostalgia but also by the unique sound quality that CDs offer.

That ‘unique sound’ of CDs is called ‘Brickwalling’.
Look it up sometime.


REAL audiophiles don’t invest in CDs.
It’s all about vinyl records, and the superior sound certain pressings offer.

Why do you think we sent a Golden Record into space on the Voyager spacecraft…?
It is because even then it was known that species of higher intelligence, even in other galaxies, listen to the better audio format - vinyl, baby!



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[Nevermore525]

$345M global estimate for Avatar 3.

Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

Zoo 2 up to $1.272B after this weekend.

Zootopia 2 (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Zootopia 2 (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com