Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

So this person is saying they think the Netflix merger will fail too?

 

[Serpico Jones]

So this person is saying they think the Netflix merger will fail too?

Yes. Every company that has owned WB over the last 30 years has come to regret it almost immediately.

 

[Serpico Jones]

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Completely different scenario as you're talking about two streamers under the same company with D+ and Hulu merging, ie they didn't remove any content as part of that. The same content is still available in the merged service, and technically still available in Hulu until the service is shuttered completely. That isn't what is happening here with Crave.

Crave used to also have Paramount content, but when Paramount+ was launch Paramount removed all their content. The reason it survived is because of the exclusivity deal with WB for HBO content, ie only place to get HBO content in Canada. The idea that they can survive without any the partnered content when Netflix removes HBO content is pretty flimsy at best, as what would they have left? Some local CBC shows and thats it? Why pay for a streamer to get the same content you can already get elsewhere in Canada? The whole reason to get Crave was the licensed content from US streamers like HBO, if that is gone its pretty worthless as a streamer, which is the whole point of the author of the article.

Crave existed before HBO was folded into the service.

They also have content from Disney and other sources. They have all of the Traitors franchises which is a popular show.

I don't know the financial innerworkings of Crave so I don't know why you're presenting as fact this assertion it cannot find a way to exist without HBO.

and it would likely be a nail in the coffin for Drag Race Canada, and other Crave Originals.

Maybe, but Canada pays to air all of the foreign versions and Drag Race Canada is licensed out to other markets in return.

They're currently selling Heated Rivalry to foreign markets, a show with a lot of buzz.

There's so many inner workings we have no idea about to make definitive conclusions.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes. Every company that has owned WB over the last 30 years has come to regret it almost immediately.

I'm sure Teddy is going to feel the same way, but will never admit it.

 

[Disney Irish]

Crave existed before HBO was folded into the service.

They also have content from Disney and other sources. They have all of the Traitors franchises which is a popular show.

I don't know the financial innerworkings of Crave so I don't know why you're presenting as fact this assertion it cannot find a way to exist without HBO.



Maybe, but Canada pays to air all of the foreign versions and Drag Race Canada is licensed out to other markets in return.

They're currently selling Heated Rivalry to foreign markets, a show with a lot of buzz.

There's so many inner workings we have no idea about to make definitive conclusions.

Crave may have existed before the exclusive partnership content was added, but it increased subscriptions after. So if that exclusive content goes away I don't know why its hard to believe the service becomes less attractive to subscribers, meaning potential huge loss of subs.

Would you stay subscribed to a service if all the exclusive content you subscribed for is removed?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Crave may have existed before the exclusive partnership content was added, but it increased subscriptions after. So if that exclusive content goes away I don't know why its hard to believe the service becomes less attractive to subscribers, meaning potential huge loss of subs.

Would you stay subscribed to a service if all the exclusive content you subscribed for is removed?

I've said all along it would likely have a negative impact. Where I pushed back is the assertion that the service would die, which is not based on fact. None of us have the insider knowledge on their finances to conclude that going back to the old subscription model would be unsurmountable.

Yeah, they'll lose the extra $10 per month if HBO content is gone, but they can still sell basic Crave at $10 or whatever.

Don't underestimate the local desire to support Canadian content instead of American.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I doubt Netflix would make the same stupid mistake (made over and over again) by WBD by constantly rebranding and not leading with "HBO."

It would be immense folly to make either the WB or HBO brand disappear through merger. Much like Disney keeps FX and National Geographic separate 'streaming tiles' on D+/Hulu.

So, if HBO remains a distinct streaming tile, it could continue to be licensed out to Crave. Probably something regulators would insist upon.

But into the mix is this: The majority of Crave's licensed (from others) shows is from WB.

And Crave's owner, Bell, has licensed Disney content from Disney.

And Disney has licensed Crave shows, too (cf Letterkenny/Shoresy).

I'm sure licensing deals will keep Canadian regulators satisfied.

 

[Disney Irish]

I've said all along it would likely have a negative impact. Where I pushed back is the assertion that the service would die, which is not based on fact. None of us have the insider knowledge on their finances to conclude that going back to the old subscription model would be unsurmountable.

Yeah, they'll lose the extra $10 per month if HBO content is gone, but they can still sell basic Crave at $10 or whatever.

Don't underestimate the local desire to support Canadian content instead of American.

Well lets just say then that it's going to lose a bunch of subs (my guess is at least half since that is about what it grew with the partnerships), whether that is enough to cause it to fold will remain to be seen. That however does seem to be the sentiment I've seen online.

 

[TP2000]

Not sure that this will restore Oscars night to The Gay Superbowl and bring back all those huge, fabulous parties we had.

But it can't hurt. I watch YouTube almost exclusively now on weeknight evenings, with a few dabbles into Cable news stations, and I can go months and months without once turning on one of the old networks. It's not 1975 any more, Oscar.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not sure that this will restore Oscars night to The Gay Superbowl and bring back all those huge, fabulous parties we had.

But it can't hurt. I watch YouTube almost exclusively now on weeknight evenings, with a few dabbles into Cable news stations, and I can go months and months without once turning on one of the old networks. It's not 1975 any more, Oscar.

You only have to wait 3 years.

 

[Disney Irish]

Evidently WBD shareholders aren't convinced that the Netflix bid is the best option, they are "very open" to having Paramount increase their bid -

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/warner-bros-discovery-shareholder-harris-associates-says-open-revised-paramount-2025-12-19/

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Ignites With $43M Across First Two Days Overseas – International Box Office

Avatar: Fire and Ash is off to a $43.1M start from two days at the international box office, logging the biggest opening day of 2025 in several markets

deadline.com

‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Lights Up $12M In Thursday Previews, 91% Audience Score – Box Office Update

'Avatar: Fire and Ash' minted $12M in previews, less than 'Avatar: Way of Water's $17M. The Sydney Sweeney movie 'The Housemaid' begins well with $2M+.

deadline.com

 

[TP2000]

Merry Christmas, gang!

As I'm just about to head to San Diego for a few weeks, I'll be putting the Global Command Center on auto-pilot. Because we've all got plenty of parties for hosting, marshmallows for roasting, etc., I'm sure things will be quiet around here any way. But I wish you all the merriest of Christmases, the warmest of Chanukah nights #4 thru #8, and here's to plenty of box office hijinks to come in 2026!

Sometime that first week of January, when the family has left, we'll do the big 2025 Burbank Box Office Recap. Until then, from The Numbers... Avatar 3 is off and galloping with a $12 Million preview day yesterday, likely to be the first Billion Dollar Movie of 2026. Zootopia 2 is closing in on $300 Million domestically, and Ella McCay just got past $3 Million.

And finally, us old folks gave America some of the best Christmas TV Specials the world has ever known; from Peanuts to Frank Sinatra to The Osmonds to Dean Martin to Bob Hope and on and on. But I am of the opinion that the absolute best Christmas Special on TV didn't arrive until the late 1980's, with Pee Wee's Playhouse Christmas Special.

As my Christmas gift to you all, here's the ridiculously fabulous opening number of that special, perhaps some of the finest Television artistry America ever produced! Charo! Annette! Marines! (Full screen! Sound up!)

 

[BrianLo]

Some local CBC shows and thats it?

CBC is not Bell (CTV). They have their own ad based FAST app called CBC Gem.

It does present an interesting quandary for the state of Canadian media networks. In the before times we survived by licensing in content from American markets. Now that American markets are entering direct it brings down all that content.

Even pre modern Netflix, it was always felt to be quite TV forward as we were essentially squashing down the major four networks to two and that left a lot of TV series for Netflix to pick up in our market.

I actually don’t subscribe to Crave, ironically. Though we’ve recently borrowed it. But I have been using cbc gem a lot recently. I barely have been using Netflix, I find their content library lacking in modern days.

Though- as an aside, Bell is a big telecom and will find a path.

 

[Disney Irish]

CBC is not Bell (CTV). They have their own ad based FAST app called CBC Gem.

It does present an interesting quandary for the state of Canadian media networks. In the before times we survived by licensing in content from American markets. Now that American markets are entering direct it brings down all that content.

Even pre modern Netflix, it was always felt to be quite TV forward as we were essentially squashing down the major four networks to two and that left a lot of TV series for Netflix to pick up in our market.

I actually don’t subscribe to Crave, ironically. Though we’ve recently borrowed it. But I have been using cbc gem a lot recently. I barely have been using Netflix, I find their content library lacking in modern days.

Yes, understand that CBC is not Bell/Crave and vice-versa. The point was that if Crave was left with just CBC content and no other content then are they still going to be a viable streamer to the current or future subs, my guess is not.

CBC having their own streaming service is also an issue in that it makes it less of a reason to sub to Crave for it, making its viability less and less.

 

[BrianLo]

Yes, understand that CBC is not Bell/Crave and vice-versa. The point was that if Crave was left with just CBC content

They don’t have CBC content though, never have. You meant if they were just left with CTV content or their own original content.

Not diminishing your point, just clarifying.

 

[Disney Irish]

They don’t have CBC content though, never have. You meant if they were just left with CTV content or their own original content.

Sorry I'm using CBC and CTV interchangeably here, my apologies, and I know they are different, my bad.

 

[Serpico Jones]