Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

Oh yes, I get that. A wheels off scenario that I alluded to would be 450-500M. Extremely bad holds. Overall disappointing.

I just suddenly got the impression everyone thinks we’re for sure on the <500M by your post. The terrible holds need to compound first, which they very well could.

My post was more to combat the opinion I'm seeing here and elsewhere that there's a whole list of reasons why this year's slate of MCU titles are not doing as well as previous ones. Movie theater prices being the most popular.

We know that if people really want to see something in theaters ASAP, they will. There are still box office successes.

It just this year they aren't revolving around the one brand that's been so prominent in the past decade.

As an aside, I have little doubt Spider-Man will be a smash next Summer.

 

[Tha Realest]

All that said, I don’t know that the Marvel brand lifts this one like it would’ve in the mid-2010’s. If anything, it may be an albatross. Unless RDJr makes an appearance in the marketing, I don’t know how well this one does. I think headwinds of recent MCU struggles and a crowded summer calendar makes this a tough go.

Adjusted for inflation, the original FF film got $550M worldwide. Does this clear that? I think so?…but not confident.

This was my prediction in June, which echoed an earlier post in May with the same concerns re the $550M WW gross threshold.

 

[BrianLo]

The MCU pruning has not occurred soon enough and it clearly continues to be damaged.

Cap 4 shouldn’t have been made, nor Ironheart. Way too much MCU homework the first two quarters.

They need to fully diverge the TV and movies ala Netflix MCU once upon a time. All propriety that you are watching movies for a long running TV show needs to be eliminated.

The obvious answer to that was young avengers.

 

[Nevermore525]

My post was more to combat the opinion I'm seeing here and elsewhere that there's a whole list of reasons why this year's slate of MCU titles are not doing as well as previous ones. Movie theater prices being the most popular.

We know that if people really want to see something in theaters ASAP, they will. There are still box office successes.

It just this year they aren't revolving around the one brand that's been so prominent in the past decade.

As an aside, I have little doubt Spider-Man will be a smash next Summer.

Cap 4, not Steve Rogers and it wasn’t a good movie and a melding of stories that should’ve involved a Steve Rogers Cap and not something new for Sam Wilson

Thunderbolts, bunch of C/D-List heroes, while well received, mostly a bunch of nobodies and kind of a homework required film with TV series.

F4 is really the only one they did with no/less homework that has a higher recognition brand of superhero

 

[Tha Realest]

The MCU pruning has not occurred soon enough and it clearly continues to be damaged.

Cap 4 shouldn’t have been made, nor Ironheart. Way too much MCU homework the first two quarters.

They need to fully diverge the TV and movies ala Netflix MCU once upon a time. All propriety that you are watching movies for a long running TV show needs to be eliminated.

The obvious answer to that was young avengers.

There’s an interesting theory going around that the fan base for the MCU is now “too old.” It seems odd, but think about it - a 13 year old who watched Iron Man in the theaters is now 30 (and past the precious 18-29 demo).

YA was probably the way to go, but the reception to the titular members has been pretty flaccid (Hawkeye TV show, The Marvels, Black Widow).

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The obvious answer to that was young avengers.

But aren't some of the Young Avengers now in the movies?

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Is 550 the new normal for Star Wars and Marvel?

 

[BrianLo]

But aren't some of the Young Avengers now in the movies?

That’s what I mean. It’s not that they cannot ever cameo like Daredevil has. It’s just that if you wanted to be invested in the TV show you had your own separate team up event and less feeling like there was mandatory homework. It would be like if DC made one of their CW Superman’s the theatrical one.

Obviously phase 1-3 ran very successfully against the Netflix universe. D+ shows feel both too necessary and incessant. It needs its own side plot that you can tune in or tune out.

Then of course the other thing is we’re supposedly 3 phases in and bajillions of hours of content by comparison and still don’t have the clear plot coalesced. This also means making some harder cuts like Moon Knight.

Wandavision and Loki briefly had a good thing going until they lost the plot.

 

[BrianLo]

There’s an interesting theory going around that the fan base for the MCU is now “too old.” It seems odd, but think about it - a 13 year old who watched Iron Man in the theaters is now 30 (and past the precious 18-29 demo).

YA was probably the way to go, but the reception to the titular members has been pretty flaccid (Hawkeye TV show, The Marvels, Black Widow).

I think so too. Unlike Star Wars, it’s never had a break or a reset. There isn’t an easy generational onboard. How do you jump into a 20 year old story?

Technically it even now extends pre-Ironman with Fox in the mix.

The YA angle also required a dump truck backing up to Tom Holland to onboard him for the team up series. Spiderman seems like the only character that jives with the youth.

 

[Tha Realest]

Then of course the other thing is we’re supposedly 3 phases in and bajillions of hours of content by comparison and still don’t have the clear plot coalesced.

It seems the MCU leaves itself some flexibility to adjust on the fly, to see what works and doesn’t. That said, if you believe some reports Pascal’s / Reed’s role in the Doomsday film has been pared back, and Romjin recently said she doesn’t know how many scenes she’s in or how long she’ll be filming as “they haven’t finished the script” (of a monumental film filming as we speak)

Rebecca Romijn Isn’t “Sure” She’s Done Filming for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Because “They Haven’t Finishing Writing” the Script

Romijn is set to reprise her role as Mystique, a character she originated in 2000’s ‘X-Men.’

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Wandavision and Loki briefly had a good thing going until they lost the plot.

I loved Wandavision. They barely addressed that with a quick minute or two of exposition in MOM. It felt odd, but at least have a smattering of context for her sudden heel turn to those who hadn’t bothered to watch the series. But that’s the problem with the films (and why I stopped reading comics*) - they now require a granular level of engagement with disparate stories.

* Nothing worse than picking up a cool issue of Detective Comics and seeing an asterisk to a side panel in a piece of dialogue on the second page that said something like “Read Batman #647-53 and Legends of the Dark Knight #7-13 for context”

 

[TalkingHead]

Last year Beetlejuice did big numbers in September. I’m wondering if anything this year will break out beyond the A-List crowd before Thanksgiving.

 

[Phroobar]

The problem with the MCU since Endgame is the huge number of dead ends. Most stories are one offs and their end credits scenes never go anywhere. There is a perceived need for homework but none of it is relevant. Even characters change on a whim. Look at Nick Fury in Secret Wars but he is different in the Marvels. There is no pay off in this serial movies.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just an FYI, current industry predictions after this weekend is F4 will have a range of $520M-$570M.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do the majority of women love Marvel and Star Wars? I don’t and my girls don’t seem very interested. What’s the target market for these films? General family audience?

That’s a tough…but great question

Very hard to zero in on. Star Wars always had a “strong” female contingent…but it was a fraction of the males because it was hatched in the nato patriarchy. So was the source material for marvel.

I’d say both have balanced out some..especially since the 90’s…with Star Wars…but it’s always a hot button issue

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I didn’t take my kids to fast food because it’s terrible for you. Save money and eat at home… don’t go to Starbucks

Do you pay your electric bill (if you have one)? Insurance of any kind? Shop for groceries

It’s not just one thing that is making people look at cutting out stuff…it’s an assault on all sides.

Ironic that we are on a Disney forum…because parks are and will always be the canary in the consumer coal mine. Totally unnecessary and gets the chop ahead of a general consumer crush. That started happening 2 years ago.

The theaters are certainly getting pulled that way…in my unhumble opinion

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

520-150 is 370…

sorrry…the upper end would equal $425 ish…the lower is of course too low

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So Fantastic Four landed with a thud. I’m worrying it won’t hit a billion despite a few posters here saying it was either a certainty, or “too early to tell” if it would hit a billion. Well, it’s safe to say that’s virtually an impossibility, absent Taylor and Travis hastily scheduling a wedding that can only be viewed via Fathom Events with the purchase of a ticket to Fantastic Four. But, they haven’t said they aren’t considering that, so it’s still possible…

Where are we now? The vaunted, optimistic start to Phase 6 landed with a big thud. Adjusted for inflation, it’s likely going to end up closer to Black Widow and Eternals without the pandemic excuse. It’s looking distressingly like it’ll perform like Quantumania, and that film’s reception (and Majors’s issues) likely prompted this all-in approach to the Doomsday Avengers films. They’ve sidelined other films in favor of going straight to the Doomsday Avengers team up films next within the MCU/Disney mainline films (Sony has another Spider-Man film coming, this time with the added pizzazz of Bernthal and Ruffalo, costars of recent MCU series that had terrible viewership).

This film is likely unable to earn a profit when it’s all said and done. The Cinemascore and audience ratings didn’t seem to translate to repeat business or box office legs. Looking forward, given the audience ambivalence to MCU, the salaries of the stars involved, and the budgetary management of the Russos, what does the future hold for the MCU?

Mmmm hmmm…and as a reminder: there’s zero need whatsoever to either cheer the thud…nor explain it away with red fish…

One is directly correlated to the other. Period. So if nobody starts…we can have some good discussion and there has been some

 

[BrianLo]

sorrry…the upper end would equal $425 ish…the lower is of course too low

That would certainly be an epic disaster.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That would certainly be an epic disaster.

Huge…almost embarrassing second week drop

Weak overseas

Lack of star power


…way hard hill to climb as of today

EDIT: My math is off here…thought it came to the weekend with a lower total so far…so it’s likely to cap out in the high $400s

Better. Not a flop. But absolutely a fail and not meeting the goals in anyway. Just so we can skip the twisting in knots, reinventing math, “they expected this/wanted it this way” garbage. Maybe for once?

 

[Disney Irish]

My math is off here…thought it came to the weekend with a lower total so far…so it’s likely to cap out in the high $400s

Better. Not a flop. But absolutely a fail and not meeting the goals in anyway. Just so we can skip the twisting in knots, reinventing math, “they expected this/wanted it this way” garbage. Maybe for once?

I think it fair to say that high $400s is certain, but capping out? Maybe, but more likely low to mid $500s. As I posted above right now industry consensus appears to have it in a range of $520M to $570M.

As for the rest, I'll concede for once and say the "expectation" for F4 was likely higher in the $650M-$750M range. So yes a disappointment for sure, but not a "flop".