Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

You’re $150 mil heavy on that estimate

520-150 is 370…

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Here's a list of Hollywood movies that have made over $500 million worldwide so far this year:

Lilo and Stitch: $1.02 billion
Minecraft Movie: $955 million
Jurassic World: $766 million
How to Train Your Dragon: $618 million
Mission Impossible: $594 million
Superman: $551 million
F1: $545 million

That's 7 movies, with other like Wicked, Zootopia and Avatar likely to reach that threshold too

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Who predicted How to Train Your Dragon and potentially F1 outgrossing Fantastic 4?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Here's a hypothetical, if Superman and Fantastic 4 had switched release dates, would their results have been different?

 

[Nevermore525]

Here's a list of Hollywood movies that have made over $500 million worldwide so far this year:

Lilo and Stitch: $1.02 billion
Minecraft Movie: $955 million
Jurassic World: $766 million
How to Train Your Dragon: $618 million
Mission Impossible: $594 million
Superman: $551 million
F1: $545 million

That's 7 movies, with other like Wicked, Zootopia and Avatar likely to reach that threshold too

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Who predicted How to Train Your Dragon and potentially F1 outgrossing Fantastic 4?

Top 7 all based in well known IPs!! Sequels, reboots, and movies based on globally popular entities (Minecraft, F1)

 

[Nevermore525]

Here's a hypothetical, if Superman and Fantastic 4 had switched release dates, would their results have been different?

No, Superman is a more popular/well known entity than Fantastic 4. Fantastic 4 would’ve had to be exceptionally better than Superman and with WOM to perform better.

Reviews being basically equivalent Superman gets the edge every time.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Top 7 all based in well known IPs!! Sequels, reboots, and movies based on globally popular entities (Minecraft, F1)

And this year's MCU titles are not that?

 

[BrianLo]

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Fantastic 4 added 150M last week…

A 3x multiple would carry forward to 670. I get it’s not holding well and that is almost assuredly too generous, but I’m struggling with everyone’s current prognostications.

 

[Disney Irish]

Top 7 all based in well known IPs!! Sequels, reboots, and movies based on globally popular entities (Minecraft, F1)

Yep, and the take away that will be made from this is to greenlight more sequels, reboots, and IP based movies. Its a vicious cycle that unfortunately I don't see ending anytime soon.

 

[Nevermore525]

And this year's MCU titles are not that?

They are, and F4 will soon join the $500M club

 

[Tha Realest]

I believe it was exactly one poster after any financial results. Not a few.

I said a “few” posters who either insisted it would make a billion (Yes, one in particular) or claimed it after opening weekend it was “too early to tell” (see below)

In all fairness I think its too early to tell. Will it hit $1B, maybe not.

^ this one in particular plays this fun game where things that are patently obvious to those who look at the data says, “hey, too early to tell - this or that might still happen” and then never revisits the topic again once what was obvious to most has eventually come about, moving on to a new topic or changing the subject altogether, or, my favorite (usually by week two or three of a film’s release) cry’s foul at beating a dead horse or that its old news.

 

[Disney Irish]

I said a “few” posters who either insisted it would make a billion (Yes, one in particular) or claimed it after opening weekend it was “too early to tell” (see below)

^ this one in particular plays this fun game where things that are patently obvious to those who look at the data says, “hey, too early to tell - this or that might still happen” and then never revisits the topic again once what was obvious to most has eventually come about, moving on to a new topic or changing the subject altogether, or, my favorite (usually by week two or three of a film’s release) cry’s foul at beating a dead horse or that its old news.

In my defense we didn't know it was going to drop 66% its second week, it opened like it could potentially leg it out even if it would have been less than likely to happen, hence why I said "maybe not".

So yes I can say its obvious now that it won't hit $1B. So shoot me for trying to be a bit optimistic.

Also what do you mean I never revisit a topic, that is all we do around here, just keep harping over the same thing over and over and over and over for months on end.

 

[BrianLo]

I said a “few” posters who either insisted it would make a billion (Yes, one in particular) or claimed it after opening weekend it was “too early to tell” (see below)

^ this one in particular plays this fun game where things that are patently obvious to those who look at the data says, “hey, too early to tell - this or that might still happen” and then never revisits the topic again once what was obvious to most has eventually come about, moving on to a new topic or changing the subject altogether, or, my favorite (usually by week two or three of a film’s release) cry’s foul at beating a dead horse or that its old news.

Fair enough!

I prefer it’s called out specifically, honestly. Because otherwise sometimes I feel like I’ve been give attribution towards things I definitely did not say nor “like” nor really agree with at the time. We get placed into camps that I don’t want to be.

 

[Nevermore525]

Yep, and the take away that will be made from this is to greenlight more sequels, reboots, and IP based movies. Its a vicious cycle that unfortunately I don't see ending anytime soon.

Pixar/WDAS will be allowed to try at least 1 original animated family film every so often in hopes of finding the next hit, but the sequels will continue to keep the lights on until audiences become willing to give originals a chance again outside of streaming.

 

[erasure fan1]

So that sounds like cost is the main driver for these decisions, not necessarily the content on the screen, which I suspect cost is also the main driver for a majority consumers. If the costs were half or 2/3rds where they are now like they were 10-15 years ago I suspect you wouldn't hesitate to go.

Well I sure would go more often. But you wouldn't have been able to give me a free ticket to the marvels because I still wouldn't have gone. Lol. So it's still a quality thing. If my theater still had $5 matinees, there's no chance I'm going to the majority of Disneys output in the last 5 to 7yrs. Now there are some I probably would have rolled the dice on for sure. Something like elemental maybe haunted Mansion or maybe Doctor strange, I would have rolled the dice if it was much cheaper. So you could boil it down to cost, but the cost doesn't matter if there making garbage like wish, mermaid, strange world, the marvels, eternals, Indy... Even at a much cheaper price, I don't see them doing a whole lot better. So yea cost, like with many things, is in the end the what it comes down to for many. But not addressing the quality issue impact would be a gross miscalculation in my opinion.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Fantastic 4 added 150M last week…

A 3x multiple would carry forward to 670. I get it’s not holding well and that is almost assuredly too generous,

I think it's unlikely the movie makes $600 million at this point

Trying to find a comp for a film that made $198 million after 10 days of release. Man of Steel hit $210 million by that time frame and did not hold well enough to reach $300 million. F4's foreign numbers don't suggest it will reach that total either.

Even if it holds better next weekend, a $40 million second weekend is hard to spin as positive.

The movie had better previews and a better Friday than Superman, but ended up opening less. This 2nd weekend adds to the narrative that its box office run has been front loaded and won't have legs.

If it makes over $500 million, it will probably finish around $550 million

but I’m struggling with everyone’s current prognostications.

It had a steeper 2nd weekend drop than anyone could have reasonably predicted based on every available metric we had (CinemaScore, PostTrack, etc) and the trades have formed a negative consensus as a result. Doubt Disney is thrilled.

For both the F4 and MCU brand, this movie needed to be an unambiguous hit. Not just do OK relative to its costs.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well I sure would go more often. But you wouldn't have been able to give me a free ticket to the marvels because I still wouldn't have gone. Lol. So it's still a quality thing. If my theater still had $5 matinees, there's no chance I'm going to the majority of Disneys output in the last 5 to 7yrs. Now there are some I probably would have rolled the dice on for sure. Something like elemental maybe haunted Mansion or maybe Doctor strange, I would have rolled the dice if it was much cheaper. So you could boil it down to cost, but the cost doesn't matter if there making garbage like wish, mermaid, strange world, the marvels, eternals, Indy... Even at a much cheaper price, I don't see them doing a whole lot better. So yea cost, like with many things, is in the end the what it comes down to for many. But not addressing the quality issue impact would be a gross miscalculation in my opinion.

Sure, I see your point to an extent. I just think that for many in the general public "quality" doesn't affect many peoples decision like it does some around here such as yourself. We have people going to see what many of us would consider "garbage" all the time. We shake our head at the latest IP based reboot and think "why are people watching this crap", and yet that is what the audience is going to see.

So yeah I think cost is the main factor for a majority of people who aren't going to movies these days, and I think I saw a recent study that suggests if costs were lowered you'd have a return to pre-pandemic levels almost immediately.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

For me, it felt complete after Endgame. There were holdovers like Spider-Man and to a lesser extent Guardians that I wanted to see “wrap up,” but that was about it. I just don’t feel much of a need or interest in starting down another connected path of comic book movies.

I will never understand this mentality. It makes as much sense as those people who delete friends on their Facebook account because they don’t interact often enough.

I like Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Harry Potter. Make more. Make more every week, I don’t care.

“oh, I don’t wanna hear anymore about Star Wars,” will never come out of my mouth.

 

[BrianLo]

I think it's unlikely the movie makes $600 million at this point

Trying to find a comp for a film that made $198 million after 10 days of release. Man of Steel hit $210 million by that time frame and did not hold well enough to reach $300 million. It's foreign numbers don't suggest it will reach that total either.

Even if it holds better next weekend, a $40 million second weekend is hard to spin as positive.

If it makes over $500 million, it will probably finish around $550 million



It had a steeper 2nd weekend drop than anyone could have reasonably predicted based on every available metric we had (CinemaScore, PostTrack, etc) and the trades have formed a negative consensus as a result. Doubt Disney is thrilled.

For both the F4 and MCU brand, this movie needed to be an unambiguous hit. Not just do OK relative to its costs.

Oh yes, I get that. A wheels off scenario that I alluded to would be 450-500M. Extremely bad holds. Overall disappointing.

I just suddenly got the impression everyone thinks we’re for sure on the <500M by your post. The terrible holds need to compound first, which they very well could.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think Fantastic Four is just suffering from a damaged Marvel brand. Too many mediocre or bad movies and TV shows have come out in the past 5 years.

Black Widow was seen as mediocre and Eternals and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness were — at best — divisive. Meanwhile, Thor: Love and Thunder, Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels and Captain America: Brave New World were just straight up bad movies.

But the movies weren't the only problem. The Disney Plus shows — most of which weren't that great — created a feeling of "too much homework" and made the MCU too hard to keep up with for the average fan. Of the shows, only WandaVision and Loki were universally loved, and it helped that they made their debut in a time where theaters weren't in operation. I really enjoyed Agatha, Hawkeye and Moon Knight and those were generally well received, but they didn't enter the zeitgeist like WandaVision and Loki. Meanwhile, Falcon and Winter Soldier, Ms. Marvel and Daredevil were seen as messy mixed bags while She-Hulk and Secret Invasion were hated. I personally didn't think She-Hulk was that bad, but Secret Invasion was unwatchable. Echo and Ironheart just sort of flew under the radar.

As if any of them are great films. I see very little distance between the ones people say are mediocre and the ones people like.

This feels like arguing over which fast food pizza is the best. None of them are. They fit the bill when you don’t want real pizza.

 

[Disney Irish]

As if any of them are great films. I see very little distance between the ones people say are mediocre and the ones people like.

This feels like arguing over which fast food pizza is the best. None of them are. They fit the bill when you don’t want real pizza.

Agreed, Citizen Kane or Schindler's List they are not. They are popcorn films, always have been always will be.