Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

brideck

brideck

Well-Known Member
Tha Realest said:
I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.
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For sure, I was not intending to get particularly specific, and as you point out China is the single biggest overseas market. I haven't looked to see if there's been a general softening in, say, western Europe or Latin America vis a vis this type of movie as well. And then the question of how much of that to attribute to market trends vs fatigue vs geopolitics seems tough to do from my couch.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
coffeefan said:
It shows the industry has changed. It's not the 1970s anymore, as many have pointed out here before.
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Of course it has

Things have changed dramatically

But don’t let anyone tell
You there’s “no failure” if things bomb because they are unable to untangle themselves from
Their love for particular companies or characters.

…here Endeth that lesson
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
brideck said:
For sure, I was not intending to get particularly specific, and as you point out China is the single biggest overseas market. I haven't looked to see if there's been a general softening in, say, western Europe or Latin America vis a vis this type of movie as well. And then the question of how much of that to attribute to market trends vs fatigue vs geopolitics seems tough to do from my couch.
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As we see almost daily…depending on China to generate “the big money” for American companies is foolish…especially entertainment ones

But there appears to be a general “softening” of demand everywhere for some genres?

Imagine it’s mostly due to tech changes and fatigue…and of course money which is drying up
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
coffeefan said:
Massive fumble by Sony to sell their entire IP to Netflix. This is why you don't have old world thinking in 2025.

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Except according to some around here streaming is still not a viable model as its still an "unknown" if it'll work out, guess Sony and Netflix didn't get the memo that they should wait another 10-15 years to see if it'll work out.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
brideck said:
Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.
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It’s a pretty interesting chart (thanks @TP2000) as it actually shows maybe production budgets on major tentpoles are not actually out of control. They just look egregious these days due to inflation.

Often when we run these far flung charts, it doesn’t feel like the movies in the past were ever flashy modern tentpoles. But Superman has always been Superman and has always been a tentpole. Superman Returns was the clear out of control one in the earlier CGI boundary expansion glory days.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
It’s a pretty interesting chart (thanks @TP2000) as it actually shows maybe production budgets on major tentpoles are not actually out of control. They just look egregious these days due to inflation.

Often when we run these far flung charts, it doesn’t feel like the movies in the past were ever flashy modern tentpoles. But Superman has always been Superman and has always been a tentpole. Superman Returns was the clear out of control one in the earlier CGI boundary expansion glory days.
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In general I think budgets "appear" to be out of control due to the sticker shock that $200M+ brings. But I think you're right, they aren't that out of whack when considering inflation, and how much more expensive productions are these days both in time and money.

This is one of the times I think inflation is used correctly.
 
Tha Realest

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
brideck said:
For sure, I was not intending to get particularly specific, and as you point out China is the single biggest overseas market. I haven't looked to see if there's been a general softening in, say, western Europe or Latin America vis a vis this type of movie as well. And then the question of how much of that to attribute to market trends vs fatigue vs geopolitics seems tough to do from my couch.
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It is tough to tell. It’s also IP specific to some degree, as “Disney” is too broad in a way that it’s sub-studios/IPs (Star Wars, Avatar, Pixar, WDAS, Marvel) are not. Either way, while it’s difficult for us to ascertain this, clearly that Variety article was a warning bell that China is no longer the reliable way to pad international numbers it once was.

@Disney Irish ‘s post a few posts earlier had a nice breakdown on what those films would’ve made absent any money from China.

In terms of what conclusions to draw - it’s tough! Just checking Inside Out, it made $15M in China in 2015. IO2 made $47M. So, the doors weren’t necessarily closed last year. Captain Marvel made $154M in 2019 but only $15M in 2023. Captain America Civil War made $180M in 2016; Captain America 4 only made $14M.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Tha Realest said:
It is tough to tell. It’s also IP specific to some degree, as “Disney” is too broad in a way that it’s sub-studios/IPs (Star Wars, Avatar, Pixar, WDAS, Marvel) are not. Either way, while it’s difficult for us to ascertain this, clearly that Variety article was a warning bell that China is no longer the reliable way to pad international numbers it once was.

@Disney Irish ‘s post a few posts earlier had a nice breakdown on what those films would’ve made absent any money from China.

In terms of what conclusions to draw - it’s tough! Just checking Inside Out, it made $15M in China in 2015. IO2 made $47M. So, the doors weren’t necessarily closed last year. Captain Marvel made $154M in 2019 but only $15M in 2023. Captain America Civil War made $180M in 2016; Captain America 4 only made $14M.
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Maybe some of the Chinese speak English and picked up on being blamed for trying to end the world and being the world ultimate Economic Satan for the last 8 years or so?

Ask an honest question: would Disney builds a park there now? I highly doubt it
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
BrianLo said:
It’s a pretty interesting chart (thanks @TP2000) as it actually shows maybe production budgets on major tentpoles are not actually out of control. They just look egregious these days due to inflation.

Often when we run these far flung charts, it doesn’t feel like the movies in the past were ever flashy modern tentpoles. But Superman has always been Superman and has always been a tentpole. Superman Returns was the clear out of control one in the earlier CGI boundary expansion glory days.
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See I think it might show that there a gigantic crack In the tentpole formula now…maybe they actually end? Or become “loss leaders”?

The recent cancellation of late night on cbs has triggered a lot of discussion…not the politics…the money.

That format is dying and a loss because the attention spans and preferences have moved and Madison Avenue isn’t there for it anymore. So they may all go.


Movies are going through different kind of industry changes that could end up with the same results?
Companies have long lost money to make it in other places…but there is less tolerance from that in the quick score world every day
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
See I think it might show that there a gigantic crack In the tentpole formula now…maybe they actually end? Or become “loss leaders”?

The recent cancellation of late night on cbs has triggered a lot of discussion…not the politics…the money.

That format is dying and a loss because the attention spans and preferences have moved and Madison Avenue isn’t there for it anymore. So they may all go.


Movies are going through different kind of industry changes that could end up with the same results?
Companies have long lost money to make it in other places…but there is less tolerance from that in the quick score world every day
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This has been brought up before and many scoffed at it, but I think theatrical has become a bit of a “loss leader”.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
DKampy said:
Now gives us the production budget inflation rates…
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Those are the inflation adjusted production budgets.

Here they are again, for those who forgot to cut this out and tape it to their fridge for reference...

Super Inflation!.jpg


If you took those inflation adjusted numbers and, assuming you get 60% of the box office take domestically and 40% of the box office take overseas, then punched them into the TP2000 Global Command Center, Presented By Imperial Measurements As God Him/Her Self Intended, you get these profit/loss figures...

Superman '25: Production $225, Marketing $100, Domestic $178, Overseas $86 = $61 Million Loss
Man Of Steel: Production $313, Marketing $150, Domestic $253, Overseas $210 = Break Even (What are the odds?)
Superman Returns: Production $401, Marketing $150, Domestic $208, Overseas $132 = $211 Million Loss (Oof!)
Superman II: Production $210, Marketing $100, Domestic $264, Overseas $134 = $90 Million Profit
Superman '78: Production $268, Marketing $135, Domestic $389, Overseas $321 = $307 Million Profit (The Blue Eyes Helped)
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
TP2000 said:
Those are the inflation adjusted production budgets.

Here they are again, for those who forgot to cut this out and tape it to their fridge for reference...

View attachment 874226

If you took those inflation adjusted numbers and, assuming you get 60% of the box office take domestically and 40% of the box office take overseas, then punched them into the TP2000 Global Command Center, Presented By Imperial Measurements As God Him/Her Self Intended, you get these profit/loss figures...

Superman '25: Production $225, Marketing $100, Domestic $178, Overseas $86 = $61 Million Loss
Man Of Steel: Production $313, Marketing $150, Domestic $253, Overseas $210 = Break Even (What are the odds?)
Superman Returns: Production $401, Marketing $150, Domestic $208, Overseas $132 = $211 Million Loss (Oof!)
Superman II: Production $210, Marketing $100, Domestic $264, Overseas $134 = $90 Million Profit
Superman '78: Production $268, Marketing $135, Domestic $389, Overseas $321 = $307 Million Profit (The Blue Eyes Helped)
Click to expand...
I dispute the numbers you're using, only for the fact that the 60/40 split (while still not 100% accurate) is more a modern split. Splits in 1978 for example were more favorable to the studios, and on a sliding scale. This is why its harder to do comparisons like this over time (especially decades apart) because as the industry changes so do the box office splits.

This is why using the "rule of thumb" metric is better over your "imperial" metric over time because you can use a factor and still be close, rather than just guessing the splits and the marketing which you can't know. For example prior to 2000s the factor was 1.5x-2x on average, and even sometimes as high as 3x. So still using an average of 2x and you'd be pretty close over time compared to your way which could be way off.
 

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