Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Interesting that a relatively optimistic article about Marvel claims Thunderbolts* was a misfire - I thought that was the “good” movie of the two released earlier this year.

Also, this confirms the budget for FF:FS wasn’t $200M, but rather:

Disney hasn’t given a precise figure on the film’s budget, only pegging it at somewhere north of $200 million.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…very shocking stance from an agent.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting that a relatively optimistic article about Marvel claims Thunderbolts* was a misfire - I thought that was the “good” movie of the two released earlier this year.

Also, this confirms the budget for FF:FS wasn’t $200M, but rather:

Disney hasn’t given a precise figure on the film’s budget, only pegging it at somewhere north of $200 million.

…yeah it turns out it was a flop…not boosting the subs, retention or ads on the D+ cash cow either

I’m 100% positive that the discussion here a few months ago had zero fluffed up excuses/illusions presented…but I’m too lazy to look.

But what were the trailer clicks?

TRAILER CLICKS ARE EVERYTHING

 

[Disney Irish]

I always find it funny what some take away from an article such as this.

For some its to try and confirm budgets are more than reported in some "gotcha" moment, when in reality saying "north of" is no real confirmation at all, as $200M and 1 cent is "north of". For others its a description about a particular film to try and confirm some bias about said film so it can be "see I told you it was bad", when reality is that a studio thinks it perfectly fine.

The larger take away from this for me is to confirm what many of us who actually understand where is happening with the industry already knew, that Disney does not expect Marvel to do $1B+ anymore, and likely never will have the expectation again. Heck they don't even expect $600-750M anymore in my opinion either. And that we focus too much on opening weekend around here, when studios in the post-pandemic world aren't as obsessed about that as we are. And that the "old guards" metrics used pre-pandemic of what a "hit" is aren't the reality anymore. The landscape is different post-pandemic, and if you've been really paying attention you'd know that studios expectation were reset a LONG time ago, its just taken the public until now to catch up to that reality.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[Ghost93]

I thought Fantastic Four was a solid movie, but not as good as either Thunderbolts or Superman.

I loved the cast, the tone, the production design, the cinematography, the sincere approach and the retro-futuristic world of the movie. I even thought Galactus was pulled off rather well and didn't come across as ridiculous as he could have easily been. But I felt like the characters were not developed nearly as well as they should have been. The only character who had any compelling journey was the Silver Surfer. None of the core four went through a major character arc. While this movie overall is a big upgrade from the 2005 film, I think the 2005 film and its sequel did a much better job fleshing out the Thing and the Human torch.

Some of the issues with the characters are a side effect of skipping over the origin story. However, the new Superman film also skipped the origin story and still gave him a more clearly pronounced arc.

Because of these factors, I think Superman will continue to do repeat business while the Fantastic Four will not have as strong legs at the box office. I think the overriding sentiment will be "it's good" rather than "YOU MUST SEE THIS!"

 

[coffeefan]

James Gunn's immigrant Superman reached a new milestone.

 

[TP2000]

James Gunn's immigrant Superman reached a new milestone.

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

 

[Tha Realest]

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

View attachment 874106

Adjusted for inflation, the first Fantastic Four film (Evans and Alba) made $550M worldwide. Let’s see how that compares when it’s all said and done to the current offering!

 

[DKampy]

Yes, of course, because goodness knows inflation hasn't changed prices since 1978 (Superman) when I had mastered The Hustle and a Honda Civic cost $3,200, or since 2006 (Superman Returns) when I'd mercifully vacated the dance floor and a Honda Civic cost $17,500, or to today in 2025 (Superman, By Marvel) when I don't dare give up my Early Bird barstool and a Honda Civic costs $26,500.

Back in the real world, where inflation happens and costs and dance crazes and hairdos and hemlines change over the decades, here's how those various Superman movies since 1978 actually stack up. Adjusted for 47 years of inflation.

View attachment 874106

Now gives us the production budget inflation rates…

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

My prediction of Superman being the top top grosser (domestically) of July releases is looking pretty good

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now gives us the production budget inflation rates…

That’s a can of worms…because they are not being very “forthcoming” with the quoted budgets and cost overruns now

 

[brideck]

That’s a can of worms…because they are not being very “forthcoming” with the quoted budgets and cost overruns now

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

It’s very hard to do good monetary comparisons from the “early” blockbuster days to the modern spectacle of Hollywood.

The only way to fairly comp movies is to do an unscientific “feel” comparison over time.

For instance: the money for The Last Johnson at the box office was comparable in % drop to Empire Strikes back…

Equal, right?

Or one was perhaps the biggest movie in Hollywood history as far as how it changed the business - argument can be made…and created the concept of blockbuster IP…

And the other has caused literally billions of unquantifiable reputation and ancillary sales damage for almost 10 years…

Because of “the feel”…for lack of a better word. Beyond the math.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My prediction of Superman being the top top grosser (domestically) of July releases is looking pretty good

Yeah that’s pretty solid

Fantastic Four appears to be coming in for a hard landing

So much so that Burbank seems to be putting out some smoke. Like conveniently the “sponsorship deals” leaking out mid week after opening. Next will be “expectations aren’t the same for a franchise launch…”

Funny thing is Superman can make the same exact claims…but didn’t.
That Gunn “Unamerican” thing is weird though…which FF can now claim too,

Anyway…

A 60% drop for FF an no momentum overseas would be…not great…for Burbank

 

[brideck]

It’s very hard to do good monetary comparisons from the “early” blockbuster days to the modern spectacle of Hollywood.

See also the commoditization of modern special effects.

That Gunn “Unamerican” thing is weird though…which FF can now claim too,

Not sure I'm parsing your thoughts correctly, but is anyone actually surprised by the international markets pushing back against "American" products like superhero movies? For someone who likes to talk about brand damage a lot, it should be pretty obvious where the problem lies here.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not sure I'm parsing your thoughts correctly, but is anyone actually surprised by the international markets pushing back against "American" products like superhero movies? For someone who likes to talk about brand damage a lot, it should be pretty obvious where the problem lies here.

No I think it’s legit for Superman. He just needs to maybe let it breathe a little. He’s too vocal - as always.

Lots of headwinds for these movies right now. Some just bad choices by the corps/studios…some beyond their control

 

[Tha Realest]

Also, TP's numbers are the adjusted prod budgets, which makes Gunn's movie the 2nd cheapest* Superman movie ever made.

* This is a little fuzzy since Superman 78 & Superman II was a dual production for the most part, so attributing cost to one or the other is a little silly.

There is an interesting history there. Not sure how much they filmed (or intended to film) for both The Movie and II. Partially through II Donner left the production and then so did Hackman - it’s why there are really weird stretches where he’s not shown and the voiceover is clearly not him (especially during his travels to the Fortress of Solitude). It ended up being great in the end, but I wonder how much of II was reused footage from The Movie/I because that is how they always intended, or because they wanted to reutilize shot footage.

 

[Tha Realest]

I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.

All that said, the China conundrum is an interesting one. I do wonder how much of the drop there is due to governmental restrictions on foreign films.

Again, sidestepping all of that - if there is a thumb on the scale in China against US based productions, that doesn’t bode well for the Chinese yield for Zootopia 2 or Avatar 3.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't know how much the overseas problems come from a general change in sentiment or those markets reasserting their protectionism (especially with foreign films). Without wading into these issues, the US has had varying degrees of popularity overseas and abroad in recent years, particularly acutely after 9/11.

All that said, the China conundrum is an interesting one. I do wonder how much of the drop there is due to governmental restrictions on foreign films.

Again, sidestepping all of that - if there is a thumb on the scale in China against US based productions, that doesn’t bode well for the Chinese yield for Zootopia 2 or Avatar 3.

Its an interesting thought experiment, what would Avatar 2 and Zootopia have done without China. Both did approximately $200M+ in China, $240M and $220M respectively.

Zootopia did $1.03B with China, and without would have been $805M. So still decent overall.

Avatar 2 did $2.32B with China, and without would have been $2.07B. So still a $2B+ movie.

While a big haul for both in that region, both would have still be fine without the Middle Kingdom. So I think both will be fine this time around too no matter what happens in that region.