WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn

[MisterPenguin]

Discussion thread for Netflix Houses...

Thread 'Netflix Houses'

Jul 17, 2025

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• MisterPenguin
• Replies: 8
• Forum: Everything Else

• 

 

[BrianLo]

Then why is DCL offering unprecedented 30% discounts and flexibility options for deposits?

Why is Royal and Carnival offering promotional discounts not seen since Covid?

Cruise lines are doing great. Until they’re not.

Is Royal offering promotional discounts not seen since COVID? I’m perusing and it’s nothing on the level of what I booked during COVID.

I guess we’ll see, but average revenue per passenger day still has been on the upswing across all the lines.

 

[BrianLo]

I’ll be vaguely pessimistic here. Central Florida tourism being up modestly in a quarter for which one of the two major operators opened a new park… is not impressive. It’s kind of the minimum expectation.

 

[Prince-1]

Then why is DCL offering unprecedented 30% discounts and flexibility options for deposits?

Why is Royal and Carnival offering promotional discounts not seen since Covid?

Cruise lines are doing great. Until they’re not.

"Cruise lines are doing great. Until they’re not." That is deep but to be fair, most things do great until they don't. Kind of how it usually works.

And cruise lines are ALWAYS offering deals to entice new cruisers. Nothing new there. As for the health of the cruise line industry I like to use actual facts instead of feelings. AAA, kind of a reputable organizations says it , "projects 19 million Americans will go on ocean cruises this year, a 4.5% increase over 2024, when 18.2 million Americans went on cruise vacations. 2025 is expected to be the third straight year of record cruise passenger volume."

Here are a few other expert opinions that think slightly different than you do:

Nothing But Clear Skies for the Cruise Industry

CLIA found that net promoter scores are consistently higher when cruisers book with a travel advisor.

www.travelmarketreport.com

Record 19 Million Americans Projected to Cruise This Year

WASHINGTON, DC (January 27, 2025) - AAA projects 19 million Americans will go on ocean cruises this year, a 4.5% increase over 2024, when 18.2 million

newsroom.aaa.com

https://cruising.org/news/new-2025-state-cruise-industry-report-shows-cruising-vibrant-tourism-sector-growing-steadily

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I’ll be vaguely pessimistic here. Central Florida tourism being up modestly in a quarter for which one of the two major operators opened a new park… is not impressive. It’s kind of the minimum expectation.

How much are the numbers up?

I read that tourism in Florida was expected to increase in the 7% range this year so I wonder what expectations vs reality are.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Then why is DCL offering unprecedented 30% discounts and flexibility options for deposits?

Why is Royal and Carnival offering promotional discounts not seen since Covid?

Cruise lines are doing great. Until they’re not.

Their business practice seems to be to get people on board through whatever means they can and then upsell upsell upsell.

Anything more than basic dining, drink packages, excursions, etc. all cost extra.

The base price tends to be a bit of an illusion, although you can have a perfectly good time on a cruise without buying many extras.

Disney cruises seem to be the exception. They bake the value into the premium price point.

 

[BrianLo]

How much are the numbers up?

I read that tourism in Florida was expected to increase in the 7% range this year so I wonder what expectations vs reality are.

That seems to be a good question. It only adds about 10% more theme park capacity to central Florida.

Their business practice seems to be to get people on board through whatever means they can and then upsell upsell upsell.

Anything more than basic dining, drink packages, excursions, etc. all cost extra.

The base price tends to be a bit of an illusion, although you can have a perfectly good time on a cruise without buying many extras.

Disney cruises seem to be the exception. They bake the value into the premium price point.

Indeed. Norwegian has sworn up down and sideways that they will not participate on “discount to fill” in the next downturn. We’ll see if they stick, I’m watching the cruise lines closely.

DCL is immune simply because the line is severely underbuilt compared to market demand. As is their two old ships fill up in Alaska and they are mostly sailing a fraction of the berths the other operators do in Carrib. The only thing that will actually normalize price pressure on DCL is when they have a sizeable number of berths on the market. They are oh so far behind the curve on that.

The amount I’m paying to go on serenade of the sea this year versus magic next year in Alaska makes me want to vomit. Granted I’m paying for one versus five and that makes the number seem oh so much worse.

 

[monothingie]

Guys, I don’t know if you’re all in denial or intentionally ignoring the fact that DCL is discounting cabins, even on their new boat, at 30% because they can’t fill them like before. Add the deposit gimicks and FCC for on board bookings and it’s certainly not good.

We’re not exactly in a great economic period right now that’s conducive to plopping down a couple of grand on a cruise a month or a year from now.


Cruise lines are always a lagging indicator because they’re booked well in advance and can’t be canceled easily.

 

[BrianLo]

Guys, I don’t know if you’re all in denial or intentionally ignoring the fact that DCL is discounting cabins, even on their new boat, at 30% because they can’t fill them like before. Add the deposit gimicks and FCC for on board bookings and it’s certainly not good.

100 percent I own up to not paying attention to DCL. My comment was about Royal (and NCL) that have the same smoke and mirrors discount they always have.

Plus Carnival has already reported and further raised forward guidance.

I agree with you in so far as I wouldn’t have guessed this would be the case. We’ll see the other two majors soon enough.

 

[monothingie]

100 percent I own up to not paying attention to DCL. My comment was about Royal (and NCL) that have the same smoke and mirrors discount they always have.

Plus Carnival has already reported and further raised forward guidance.

I agree with you in so far as I wouldn’t have guessed this would be the case. We’ll see the other two majors soon enough.

Royal is doing the same thing, do you notice there promotions what last year used to be 50% off and $400 to $500 discounts, are now 60% off and $750 to $850? Add in free gratuities and other incentives like kids sale free on select cruises and you see a trend emerging.

 

[BrianLo]

Royal is doing the same thing, do you notice there promotions what last year used to be 50% off and $400 to $500 discounts, are now 60% off and $750 to $850? Add in free gratuities and other incentives like kids sale free on select cruises and you see a trend emerging.

That’s what I mean by smoke and mirrors. They constantly fudge around those number and minorly adjust the base price and the actual prices don’t change.

My email box is littered with their ‘discounts’. Here’s 18 months ago, I went back to the first email I had.

 

[monothingie]

That’s what I mean by smoke and mirrors. They constantly fudge around those number and minorly adjust the base price and the actual prices don’t change.

My email box is littered with their ‘discounts’. Here’s 18 months ago, I went back to the first email I had.

View attachment 871511

That may be so, but the problem is that it’s not selling cabins. Everyone knows you’re paying more than before no matter how much the % discount is. That’s why the cabins are still empty even with the more aggressive promotions.

 

[BrianLo]

That may be so, but the problem is that it’s not selling cabins. Everyone knows you’re paying more than before no matter how much the % discount is. That’s why the cabins are still empty even with the more aggressive promotions.

Indeed, like I said I’m entirely open to the possibility and we will know soon enough. I would have predicted tourism would take a hit as Canadians and Australians tend to be over-represented on cruises.

Disney is fairly useless as they bury DCL under layers of other product. But Royal and NCL give very clear forward guidance including predicted occupancies and average revenue per day. I look forward to their reports, they are great canaries.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The cruise industry is healthier now then they ever have been with all of the major cruises line currently building new ships as well as developing more of their private islands. They ain't falling anywhere.

It’s more busy…for sure.

But if it’s slowing due to excessive pricing - as is evident in the Comcast and Disney domestic parks - to the point they have to beg and slash prices and act like everything’s “ok”…then the worm
Will turn.

The short term is good for those of that travel (and frequently) that in the short term - perhaps? - but our longterm value will decline as they continue to Jack prices and cut corners. They don’t have a choice…caught in a quarterly stock feedback loop

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I feel like i have to parrot this (yes…mostly to annoy everyone more than it being the truth) …

…but the price is the issue…to varying degree…for all travel and leisure

If the people who are SUPPOSED to the the ones interested in your product can’t afford it…no matter the reasons…your management is bad. Math ain’t working.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The cruise industry is healthier now then they ever have been with all of the major cruises line currently building new ships as well as developing more of their private islands. They ain't falling anywhere.

The cruiselines have all been building relentlessly (except carnival and Disney) since the voyager class floated 25 years ago. Same with the islands. They have ro do that to compete. There’s no mass market in older ships and bad stops.

Gotta keep up.

Dcl was wise to “keep is small”…but now they are running out of options and that makes for far more uncertainly as their IP has shown to be weakening overall and their value proposition gets called into question more daily.

 

[monothingie]

The cruiselines have all been building relentlessly (except carnival and Disney) since the voyager class floated 25 years ago. Same with the islands. They have ro do that to compete. There’s no mass market in older ships and bad stops.

Gotta keep up.

Dcl was wise to “keep is small”…but now they are running out of options and that makes for far more uncertainly as their IP has shown to be weakening overall and their value proposition gets called into question more daily.

I actually think the DCL fleet is bordering in being too large right now, unless they're planning to ditch the older ships.

DCL needs to maintain scarcity in order to command higher pricing. Now that they appear to be having a problem filling older ships (even at lower prices)...and newer ships, this creates an issue.

DCL has a very cult like following for repeat cruisers, even though you may get better experiences (food, entertainment, amenities, ports of call, etc.) on other cruise lines. This group of guests are fiercely loyal to DCL and will pay almost anything for the DCL experience, however the numbers of this category of guests is very much static. The expansion of the fleet would typically mean a fleet wide price adjustment, but the adjustment has always been up. If you're comparing the pricing of similar itineraries from the almost 15 year old Disney Dream versus the brand new Icon of the Seas and the Disney Dream is significantly more expensive for an apples to apples base fare (not including any amenities or features), then that's a problem.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I actually think the DCL fleet is bordering in being too large right now, unless they're planning to ditch the older ships.

DCL needs to maintain scarcity in order to command higher pricing. Now that they appear to be having a problem filling older ships (even at lower prices)...and newer ships, this creates an issue.

DCL has a very cult like following for repeat cruisers, even though you may get better experiences (food, entertainment, amenities, ports of call, etc.) on other cruise lines. This group of guests are fiercely loyal to DCL and will pay almost anything for the DCL experience, however the numbers of this category of guests is very much static. The expansion of the fleet would typically mean a fleet wide price adjustment, but the adjustment has always been up. If you're comparing the pricing of similar itineraries from the almost 15 year old Disney Dream versus the brand new Icon of the Seas and the Disney Dream is significantly more expensive for an apples to apples base fare (not including any amenities or features), then that's a problem.

I think expanding Dcl fleet is a complete lack of understanding of basic Econ if their “goals” are to be met.

But if rumors are true and the master of vert climber has taken to one of the most bonkers Econ theory since 1981…it totally scans

As far as the loyalty goes. No doubt. It’s pretty straight forward because it’s not the price/value. They know they are overpaying and it hasn’t been a block…at least not really yet.

The problem is when the pool “shrinks” due to “price attrition”.

There’s disputes as to if that’s happening in parks…I saw some moron say that attendance is being underreported by ten mil…

But let’s just assume that it may look like it’s 2010 in the parks to you and I for a reason….mmmmm kaaay?

So Dcl expanding risks cracking their market a bit. Do they have to discount heavily…which I’m telling you the core will not like at all…no fill berths? That would Ruin the mystique. And when they discount…they would of course jack the list prices…as we have seen with parks. Again…no bueno.

Anecdotal: some friends who have been going on dcl almost exclusively for 20 years (one’s family owns a travel agency) has shifted. When we talked about doing stuff and price crunched and pointed out It was 50-100-% more than Royal…it was “but their rooms are the biggest and it’s best for kids”. So the “training” was effective…

Last two sailings were a bit different…can you guess why?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hi!

During recessions, Disney tends to focus on cost-cutting measures, such as slowing down new developments, reducing park capacity, and even raising prices. But they also emphasize loyalty programs, special promotions, and creative, lower-budget enhancements to keep the magic alive while maintaining revenue.

The problem is that the same philosophy is rarely followed anymore

You may get the downside without the upside

 

[BrianLo]

I’m weirdly on the consumer end of things. If prices have to drift down 20-30% to fill a doubled sized fleet, we’re all better off. Great! Even Dis will be making more money.

I have never liked or felt DCL commands its price premium and it’s extremely artificial because they have, until recently, kept the fleet too small. DCL also didn’t used to have this massive price discrepancy. It has grown as their fan base has outswept fleet growth.

Also just in terms of sheer financial viability, look how well RCCL is doing these days. It’s just a cruise operator and its market value competes with Disney’s entire park sector.