Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Phroobar]

This is a bit of an annoying read because of the poor way in which it is written, but it was a random (or is my iPhone reading my posts here now?) Facebook post telling me about Disney movies that never got finished, such as Snow White 2, which was meant to be a straight to DVD release.

Apparently there were 2 previous versions of The Lion King, both written in 1990. There are entire screenplays. Side note: in neither of them were Scar and Mufasa related - but they are far different from the final version in many more ways than that.

King of the Jungle

King of the Jungle (or King of the Beasts) was a working title of The Lion King. In 2012, two screenplays were released: one written in January 1990 by J.T. Allen, and another one in May 1990 by Allen and Ron Bass. Both early screenplays are extremely different from what the final version is...

disney.fandom.com

Those versions sound interesting. Too bad Disney doesn't have the guts to do either version.

 

[TP2000]

What I do know is TP under-calls everything consistently by 50M+ because he uses a 3X multiplier without realizing it. So at least if he calls something profitable, it’s definitely profitable. Even 2.5X generally is a cautious under-call.

I just take 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the foreign box office and apply that to the widely reported production budget, with a standard marketing/distribution budget of half the production. With the exception of when Disney itself brags about spending more on marketing, like when they went on record saying they spent $140 Million to market The Little Mermaid a couple years ago.

That's based on an 8 second Google search that says that 60/40 split from theaters is fairly standard in the industry.

Using a blanket 2.5X over calls if you are assuming that every movie has an equitable overseas box office to its domestic box office. But that's often not the case. Like with Mufasa, which did almost double its domestic box office in overseas markets.

Give TP time…. I am sure he will update us on how much money Snow White is losing…

Can you wait until Monday or Tuesday? I've been busy this week; I put the top down and blasted across the desert to get to San Diego yesterday (threading the needle on Coachella traffic). I've got family to pick up at Lindbergh Field in a couple hours, and then we're going to have a busy Easter weekend.

In the meantime gang, I hope everyone has a very happy Easter and/or a fabulous Passover! May all your eggs be full of your favorite candy! And catch a healthy case of Spring Fever and get out there and have some fun this weekend! (I'm going to be blasting this song with the top down in front of baggage claim, just to annoy my sister... )

 

[Disney Irish]

I just take 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the foreign box office and apply that to the widely reported production budget, with a standard marketing/distribution budget of half the production. With the exception of when Disney itself brags about spending more on marketing, like when they went on record saying they spent $140 Million to market The Little Mermaid a couple years ago.

That's based on an 8 second Google search that says that 60/40 split from theaters is fairly standard in the industry.

Using a blanket 2.5X over calls if you are assuming that every movie has an equitable overseas box office to its domestic box office. But that's often not the case. Like with Mufasa, which did almost double its domestic box office in overseas markets.

Except as been told to you before your assuming that its a uniform 60/40 split across the board for all studios on all movies on all theaters (and specifically in all countries internationally) for its entire run, and that is not the case. For example, again something you've been told, Disney famously had a more generous 65/45 splits in years prior for the first week or two of release. Who knows what it is now, that is not something publicized. And that percentage drops off the longer a movie is in theaters. So even assuming its 60/40, its not 60/40 for the movies entire run.

@BrianLo did the work to back check and actually match up the calculations to the actual yearly Deadline breakdown on the movies and Disney financials. And if he is saying you are under reporting it for the most part, I would believe him.

This is why using 2.5x is just easier for our purposes, no need to quibble over falling percentages and such.

 

[BrianLo]

I just take 60% of the domestic box office and 40% of the foreign box office and apply that to the widely reported production budget, with a standard marketing/distribution budget of half the production. With the exception of when Disney itself brags about spending more on marketing, like when they went on record saying they spent $140 Million to market The Little Mermaid a couple years ago.

That's based on an 8 second Google search that says that 60/40 split from theaters is fairly standard in the industry.

Using a blanket 2.5X over calls if you are assuming that every movie has an equitable overseas box office to its domestic box office. But that's often not the case. Like with Mufasa, which did almost double its domestic box office in overseas markets.

Doing a 60/40 split has nothing to do with your upfront multiple. Your multiple is derived from a starting point of 1.5X a films budget. Multiply that by 2 and it equals “3”.

You assume no back end, but also assume all costs are spent and assigned in the front end.

Adjust your marketing spend to 25% instead of 50% (the other half is spent post theatrically and therefore doesn’t need to be recuperated in theaters) and you’ll be a lot closer to the money in the theatrical window. If that’s what you really want to calculate.

I’ve run your numbers against quarterlies and they are off. As you know, because we have this conversation at least one a quarter.

So…

 

[BrianLo]

Except as been told to you before your assuming that its a uniform 60/40 split across the board for all studios on all movies on all theaters (and specifically in all countries internationally) for its entire run, and that is not the case. For example, again something you've been told, Disney famously had a more generous 65/45 splits in years prior for the first week or two of release. Who knows what it is now, that is not something publicized. And that percentage drops off the longer a movie is in theaters. So even assuming its 60/40, its not 60/40 for the movies entire run.

@BrianLo did the work to back check and actually match up the calculations to the actual yearly Deadline breakdown on the movies and Disney financials. And if he is saying you are under reporting it for the most part, I would believe him.

This is why using 2.5x is just easier for our purposes, no need to quibble over falling percentages and such.

Just to reiterate for TP, I have zero qualms with 60/40. I think that’s nicely nuanced and supported.

I have qualms with his break even point, which is very inaccurate. Stop adding 50% upfront marketing and instead add 25% is the best way I can rationalize it to him.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just to reiterate for TP, I have zero qualms with 60/40. I think that’s nicely nuanced and supported.

I have qualms with his break even point, which is very inaccurate. Stop adding 50% upfront marketing and instead add 25% is the best way I can rationalize it to him.

Understood, and agree. My issue is that there is no accounting for the falling percentages in just using 60/40 across the entire theatrical run which we know happens since all movies are front-loaded now. And since we'll never know the exact splits over a movies run, since it varies from each movie to each theater, it can get messy trying to figure that out.

So issues all around. But we'll stick to your reasons for having issues as I trust your math more than any other here.

 

[BrianLo]

Understood, and agree. My issue is that there is no accounting for the falling percentages in just using 60/40 across the entire theatrical run which we know happens since all movies are front-loaded now. And since we'll never know the exact splits over a movies run, since it varies from each movie to each theater, it can get messy trying to figure that out.

So issues all around. But we'll stick to your reasons for having issues as I trust your math more than any other here.

You are right, it all over-complicates something that we have the rather non-elegant answer to. A multiplier and nothing else.

I feel like one change is all I can possibly explain and ask for. I actually don’t think he’s being stubborn, rather what I’m suggesting is confusing him. I can tell it’s like the D+ revenue thing, where it’s not clicking for a few people.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I saw Sinners last night and thought it was great! No idea how it will perform at the box office.

It's currently predicted to have a $40 million 3-day opening weekend and has received good audience reviews (A CinemaScore, 96% audience rating on RT etc).

It cost $90 million to make, but I don't expect it to drop so sharply in its next weekend like most horror movies do.

 

[Disney Irish]

Some interesting comments from Soderbergh on mid-budget films not doing well at the box office -

Steven Soderbergh Says It’s “Frustrating” When Mid-Budget Films Like ‘Black Bag’ Underperform At Box Office: “Not A Good Thing For Movies”

Steven Soderbergh recently reflected on 'Black Bag,' lamenting the dissonance between its critical success vs. its lackluster draw at the box office.

deadline.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Some interesting comments from Soderbergh on mid-budget films not doing well at the box office -

Steven Soderbergh Says It’s “Frustrating” When Mid-Budget Films Like ‘Black Bag’ Underperform At Box Office: “Not A Good Thing For Movies”

Steven Soderbergh recently reflected on 'Black Bag,' lamenting the dissonance between its critical success vs. its lackluster draw at the box office.

deadline.com

I think the comment saying it’s hard to get people to go to theaters when Netflix releases several movies every month is spot on, there’s simply so much content now a movie really has to stand out to get any attention.

I think streaming has hurt theaters far more than TV, DVD, etc ever did.

The quality has gone down but there’s so much content now there’s never a lack of stuff to watch.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Some interesting comments from Soderbergh on mid-budget films not doing well at the box office -

Steven Soderbergh Says It’s “Frustrating” When Mid-Budget Films Like ‘Black Bag’ Underperform At Box Office: “Not A Good Thing For Movies”

Steven Soderbergh recently reflected on 'Black Bag,' lamenting the dissonance between its critical success vs. its lackluster draw at the box office.

deadline.com

I think if they marketed black bag more like a blockbuster, it may have performed more like a blockbuster. I saw a very few TV ads and was barely aware of it. It wasn’t until I read the description on the AMC app, I realized Fassbender was in it, who I like.

Either I didn’t happen to get to the theater when it first came out, or it’s possible I saw Snow White instead.

With that said, I don’t think it’s a must see in a theater.

If we go on Sunday, I think the best option is The Amateur. We saw the trailer for it the last couple of times we went to the movies. I’d also like to know if The Woman In The Yard is too gross or not!

 

[Agent H]

I like Michael B. Jordan, I think Marvel missed an opportunity with him. He could have been an Alternate Universe version of Black Panther (T'Challa). Who comes to our version of Earth in Wakanda Forever. Instead of going with 100 pound Shuri, who looks like she can't take the Taco Bell Chihuahua.

Taco Bell chihuahua? I’m sorry but what are you talking about?

 

[BrianLo]

Taco Bell chihuahua? I’m sorry but what are you talking about?

A Taco Bell mascot in the late 90’s.

 

[Agent H]

A Taco Bell mascot in the late 90’s.

View attachment 854232

I know what it is but I have no clue how shuri looks like it.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I know what it is but I have no clue how shuri looks like it.

The comment seemed to be saying that Shuri looked like she couldn’t beat up a chihuahua

 

[Agent H]

The comment seemed to be saying that Shuri looked like she couldn’t beat up a chihuahua

yeah I see that now. Thanks.

 

[TalkingHead]

Sinners is outstanding, best tentpole-type movie in ages. Its third weekend coincides with Thunderbolts’ opening weekend fwiw.

 

[TP2000]

I've got a See's Candy hangover this morning, how about you all? Those chocolate butter eggs get me every year.

Box office for this Easter weekend is late this week, but here ya go gang! Snow White has dropped to 10th place in her 5th weekend out, and The Amateur dropped to 4th place.

We're all painfully aware of the hundreds of millions of dollars that Snow White will lose for Burbank, but The Amateur's 51% drop in its second weekend does not bode well for it breaking even. With it's $60 Million production budget, The Amateur doesn't look like it will reach escape velocity to break even at this point.

Foreign box office and its first pass is already in for Easter weekend overseas, and Snow White is flatlining at the box office in foreign lands just as quickly as she is in the USA. It now seems a $200 Million global box office is going to be hard to achieve by May.

Perhaps Rachel Zegler's Snow White will mercifully end at $195 Million globally if she's lucky, before The Thunderbolts arrive in theaters two weeks from now?

 

[TP2000]

You are right, it all over-complicates something that we have the rather non-elegant answer to. A multiplier and nothing else.

I feel like one change is all I can possibly explain and ask for. I actually don’t think he’s being stubborn, rather what I’m suggesting is confusing him. I can tell it’s like the D+ revenue thing, where it’s not clicking for a few people.

Nailed it!

You are too kind, and are unfortunately too accurate in your assessment. I'm not trying to be stubborn, it's just my pea-sized brain and damp cocktail napkin math seem too easy for me to give up. I thought I was rather clever actually by not just doing a blanket 50% studio take on global box office, but instead doing a more nuanced 60% domestic and 40% overseas take. That seems more informing to me, especially when we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars from both categories. And some mega-budget movies, like The Little Mermaid, do really badly overseas which skews the take quite notably.

 

[Disney Irish]

Nailed it!

You are too kind, and are unfortunately too accurate in your assessment. I'm not trying to be stubborn, it's just my pea-sized brain and damp cocktail napkin math seem too easy for me to give up. I thought I was rather clever actually by not just doing a blanket 50% studio take on global box office, but instead doing a more nuanced 60% domestic and 40% overseas take. That seems more informing to me, especially when we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars from both categories. And some mega-budget movies, like The Little Mermaid, do really badly overseas which skews the take quite notably.

The question is will you learn from it?