If an economic downturn slows or stop the new additions, then that same economic downturn will reduce the number of guests such that the additions aren't needed.
That's the mindset circa 2010 that brought us the Blue Ocean strategy that has hampered attendance growth ever since. Instead of recognizing that the soft economy meant people had begun spending more frugally on vacations (during an ere where the word "staycation" entered the lexicon), the-powers-that-be decided it meant that theme parks had reached their maximum market saturation and would never attract more visitors, so the only way to "grow" the business was to extract more money out of the visitors you already have.
This led to WDW's NextGen era where FPs were reserved months in advance, dining was booked half-a-year out, and everything from extended park hours to seasonal entertainment to fireworks viewing became added-cost experiences. Essentially, they spent billions of dollars doing anything they could to not increase park capacity.
As was easily predicted the economy eventually recovered, people resumed typical vacation patterns, park attendance continued to grow, and the parks were caught flat-footed. Instead of taking advantage of the relative-quiet period in the parks to do construction projects in anticipation of future growth (like, say, walling off 10 acres at the heart of a park for a multi-year reconfiguration), the parks had stagnated, become unpleasant to navigate, and most of the construction projects had to be done anyway (with higher costs and more severe operational impacts) after the parks were busier than ever.
Given the extremely long development process that most Disney projects go through, and how far behind WDW's parks already are on capacity, a period of low attendance is actually the best time to build new things (macroeconomic conditions notwithstanding) so that the extra capacity is there and ready to go when guests return. Heck, build something popular enough and it may even draw guests despite the economy; look no further than WDW's opening alongside the oil crisis.
Using MK...
Attendance is down compared to pre-pandemic.
But pre-pandemic was crazy crowded such that the GSATs showed that guests saw that as problematic. Not only because too many bodies, but MK didn't have sufficient capacity (for years) for that many people, and people couldn't get on enough rides to think their visit was satisfactory. MK was hosting 10 million more people per year than the park was designed for.
All the price hikes and park reservations were purposely designed to reduce that crowd. And it did. And Disney raised prices to make up for less attendance. And Disney raised prices enough that park profits still went up.
In order to increase the number of people in MK back to pre-pandemic levels (while keeping pricing high), Disney still needs to increase MK's capacity. That's extra super-duper profits.
Tho, I say all their extra capacity money should have gone in to the other three parks to make them more attractive, but... MK is king.
Using TEA's numbers:
In 2007 (pre-recession), WDW's four parks saw 46.99 million visitors (17.06M MK, 10.93M Epcot, 9.51M DHS, 9.49M DAK).
By 2019 (pre-pandemic) that number had grown to 58.77 million visitors (20.96M MK, 12.44M Epcot, 11.48M DHS, 13.89M DAK). This represents a 25% growth in attendance from 2007, with only small additions to park capacity to offset it.
In 2023 (post-pandemic "peak") the number was down to 48.77 million visitors (17.72M MK, 11.98M Epcot, 10.30M DHS, 8.77M). This is only a 4% increase from 2007, but despite minor capacity increases in the intervening 16 years the parks
felt as crowded as they've ever been.
This is largely to blame on operational differences between the two eras. Everything from shorter park hours (less time available to see it all), to removal of nearly all atmosphere entertainment and A/B-ticket attractions (fewer diversions for when waits are long elsewhere), to single-sightline-focused nighttime entertainment (limiting the available/desirable viewing areas), to addition of FP/LL to nearly every experience (more people waiting in walkways instead of in queues; people in queues barely moving), to reserved seats for all shows (fewer spots available for the general audience), to a reliance on outdoor kiosks instead of using existing indoors paces (more walkway bottlenecks) has had a negative impact on crowding in the parks.
The 2023 park infrastructure isn't significantly different than it was in 2007; if anything, there's more capacity and guest-accessible spaces with additions like New Fantasyland, Pandora, Galaxy's Edge, and Ratatouille to spread the crowds around. But even with similar overall park attendance, 2023
felt much worse than 2007 because management has shifted its goals to making guests just-uncomfortable-enough that they want to spend extra money to make their day slightly more bearable.
There are all sorts of things that could be changed fairly easily/inexpensively that would have meaningfully positive impacts on the guest experience. But that would require the people running the parks to have an understanding of the business that they're in, and actually want to improve the guest experience instead of just improve the net revenue for the quarter. Who cares if the guests want to return again in a few years when we can make an extra couple bucks off of them today?
