Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

I said this to a dear friend who tried to go into infertility BS with me. Just because you are vaccinated doesn't mean you are not helping to spread anti-vax rhetoric. You miss this part. Passing off coincidence as causation is exactly what the anti-vaxxers do. They are that good at spreading misinformation that vaxxed people are spreading it too - seemingly out of care but not realizing the damage they do.

That infertility scare comes up with every new vaccination, and it is nothing more than deliberate misinformation propagated by anti-vaxxers. They know even the suggestion causes an emotional reaction that it is very difficult to counter with data-based narratives (I experienced this first-hand in clinic last week). Their marks then share these baseless worries via social media. It steamrolls until it hits someone who has experienced difficulties conceiving, which she then retrospectively attributes to receiving the vaccine, and voila, we now have now passed the social media burden of "proof".

This is how it starts... 1. "How do we know that the vaccine won't cause X? "(planted by anti-vaxxer in bad faith)

2. " I'm worried about X, maybe I shouldn't get the vaccine until they can prove it doesn't cause X. I should share this." (mark of the anti-vaxxer)

3. "Oh, I've had X and I also had the vaccine. The vaccine must have caused X! I should share this online!"

4. "Vaccines cause X!" (says Facebook)

I've dealt with this kind of misinformation at least once a week for the past three months.

 

[DisneyFan32]

 

[Jrb1979]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6107679

From the site linked in that article there is already quite a few businesses in Ontario that will require proof of vaccination to enter. It's all businesses from gyms to restaurants.

 

[hopemax]

I don't know exactly but, as far as I'm aware, the CDC hasn't issued any updated guidance about high risk situations with the emergence of Delta.

The higher level of transmissibility could mean that it is more likely to transmit under the same high risk conditions but doesn't bring new situations into the fold of being high risk. I guess what I'm trying to say is that, with no information to the contrary, Delta doesn't infect people 15 feet away, it is just more likely to infect somebody 3 feet away. Perhaps it does it in less time due to the higher viral load but if it is five minutes instead of 15 minutes that is high risk, you still don't spend five minutes close to the same stranger at a grocery store.

Due to the 1000x viral load, the time necessary for an exposure to generate an infection didn't go from 15 minutes to 5 minutes. It's seconds. Of course, the original 15 minutes was arbitrary in the first place.

Contract tracers in Malaysia and Australia were able to link infections to people with 15 seconds or less exposure time. Just people walking past each other in a mall.

Don't assume or guess you know what Delta is capable of. Humans are really great at underestimating. The guidance for the original, wild type, or even Alpha is now obsolete.

 

[Jrb1979]

Canada is reopening the border August 9th to US citizens. To enter you must download the ArriveCanada app and upload your proof of vaccination. You also need a negative test 3 days before entering.

 

[Trauma]

Due to the 1000x viral load, the time necessary for an exposure to generate an infection didn't go from 15 minutes to 5 minutes. It's seconds. Of course, the original 15 minutes was arbitrary in the first place.

Contract tracers in Malaysia and Australia were able to link infections to people with 15 seconds or less exposure time. Just people walking past each other in a mall.

Don't assume or guess you know what Delta is capable of. Humans are really great at underestimating. The guidance for the original, wild type, or even Alpha is now obsolete.

Nope.

 

[hopemax]

Nope.

What are you objecting to?

 

[Trauma]

What are you objecting to?

That guidance is obsolete.

 

[hopemax]

That guidance is obsolete.

For exposure time, it is.

 

[DisneyCane]

Due to the 1000x viral load, the time necessary for an exposure to generate an infection didn't go from 15 minutes to 5 minutes. It's seconds. Of course, the original 15 minutes was arbitrary in the first place.

Contract tracers in Malaysia and Australia were able to link infections to people with 15 seconds or less exposure time. Just people walking past each other in a mall.

Don't assume or guess you know what Delta is capable of. Humans are really great at underestimating. The guidance for the original, wild type, or even Alpha is now obsolete.

Do you have links to those reports? Why hasn't the CDC released any new guidance based on this? From a logical standpoint, if it was THAT contagious, every unvaccinated person would contract it rather quickly and the growth and cases would be doubling every day.

It would make sense if they were able to trace situations where somebody infected with Delta coughed in somebody else's face. In that scenario I could see a very short exposure leading to transmission but not from a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic person.

 

[Trauma]

What are you objecting to?

Let me expand on this.

Fauci the CDC, whoever is running this circus behind the scenes, know exactly where we are and where we are headed.

These are not stupid people and they have all the info projections etc.

Therefore they know that this wave is going to be terrible and are waiting for things to get really bad before bringing back restriction due to public opinion.

That would mean your leaders are gutless cowards that worry more about perception than reality.

Or

They know how bad it’s going to get and have no plan to change guidance because they have decided it is a “Disease of the unvaccinated “ as they are calling it.

 

[DisneyCane]

Just a pro tip here, if you want to convince us that COVID doesn't exist to you, and that it doesn't matter to you at all, the first step would be not coming here constantly to tell everyone on a message board that you don't care about it.

I care about the reaction to COVID by other people and the negative effect that those reactions have on my life.

 

[Touchdown]

Or

They know how bad it’s going to get and have no plan to change guidance because all evidence currently points to it being is a “Disease of the unvaccinated “ as they are calling it.

FTFY.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Canada is reopening the border August 9th to US citizens. To enter you must download the ArriveCanada app and upload your proof of vaccination. You also need a negative test 3 days before entering.

Have they announced a reciprocal procedure for Canadians entering the US via a land border? We're hoping to have my in-laws here in December.

 

[carolina_yankee]

For those looking for hard data, here are the stats in NJ, as of June 28, on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among those who vaccinated in NJ. The vaccines are nearly 100% effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths. The pitch is that NJ has a pandemic among the unvaccinated - 1.34 rate of spread, which has jumped from the .90s in just two weeks. Almost exclusively among the unvaccinated. Hospitalizations and ventilators are starting to increase. Among the unvaccinated.

I’m not a doom and gloomer - I do not advocate rolling openings back, but it’s clear, those who aren’t vaccinated are where the pandemic is at play and it’s growing.

My favorite meme from a physician this week: “You‘re not getting vaccinated means I don’t get to go home and have dinner with my kids.”

I’m on vacation and feeling safe because of being vaccinated. However, I’ve made the decision I will not visit states where vaccinations rates are low. I’m not going to enable the attitude, “all is fine.” Hoping Disney continues New York cruise departures in the future

!

 

[Jrb1979]

Have they announced a reciprocal procedure for Canadians entering the US via a land border? We're hoping to have my in-laws here in December.

I'm assuming that now that Canada has their system in place for reopening the US will follow suit.

I am in agreement with the requirement of using the ArriveCanada app for proof of vaccination. I have a feeling most Americans will want nothing to do with that.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm assuming that now that Canada has their system in place for reopening the US will follow suit.

I am in agreement with the requirement of using the ArriveCanada app for proof of vaccination. I have a feeling most Americans will want nothing to do with that.

I have the feeling that most Americans who would object to using ArriveCanada probably wouldn't be caught dead leaving the good ole' USA anyway.

 

[DisneyCane]

If you are not a marginalized person, I wouldn't expect you to easily understand the medical hesitancy as a whole. If you are not used to getting subpar treatment because of a name or skin tone, it's hard to explain. Couple that with socioeconomic issues like the inability to afford to take time off or arrange childcare, and you have a recipe for disaster. If you don't understand, just consider yourself lucky. The disproportionate death rates go hand in hand with subpar healthcare and socioeconomic reasons that cause a disproportionate number of marginalized who are high risk.

After you explained some of these issues and gave examples a few months ago, I definitely can understand the hesitancy for some. Having never seen the type of things you described where I live or in the healthcare setting where my wife works in South Florida, I had no idea that those kind of things were happening.

I just hope that as more and more people are vaccinated, that more people will get over their hesitancy. Hopefully they will realize that they are getting the same exact vaccine as white people and it really isn't a care setting where they would be treated differently. It's just somebody giving an injection.

It is disheartening to me that there are people who elect to remain vulnerable to COVID because of this type of experience based hesitancy. It's different than people who believe kooky things like tracking nanobots, DNA modification and infertility as their reason to be hesitant. For the latter group, I could care less what happens to them. For the former group, I don't feel that any mitigation measures should be in place to protect them because they do have the opportunity to get vaccinated but I care that they aren't getting vaccinated and wish they would.

As I said a few months ago, I personally convinced a Jamaican man in his 60's that the vaccine was safe. He was very hesitant but I convinced him that he shouldn't be. A lot of my persuasiveness was that he has a lot of respect for my wife and I was able to use her as an example and to give him some facts. I just hope that more people like him can find somebody they trust to push them over the edge towards getting the shot(s).

 

[Disney Experience]

I am all for vaccination. I think the current known numbers support it.

But the numbers NJ is putting out on efficacy and hospitalization is deceiving.

Efficacy in studies is not how many are symptom free divided by how many vaccinated. The true number is complicated by other contributing conditions . Putting those aside for simplification it still more like:

A=Number of symptomatic infection in vaccinated
B=number of vaccinated.

C=Number of symptomatic infection in non vaccinated

D=number of non vaccinated.

A/B is the rate of symptomatic infection per vaccinated person.

1-A/B is the percent of all vaccinated who never had symptoms. Not efficacy.

For efficacy you have to consider the symptomatic infection percent of the vaccinated compared to the symptomatic infection percent of the unvaccinated.

NJ is inflating vaccine efficacy by using 1-A/B as efficacy. It is correct to say the vaccinated symptomatic rate is A/B. But deceiving to not then at least state what the unvaccinated infection rate is. But 1-infection rate is not efficacy.

 

[DisneyCane]

I am all for vaccination. I think the current known numbers support it.

But the numbers NJ is putting out on efficacy and hospitalization is deceiving.

Efficacy in studies is not how many are symptom free divided by how many vaccinated. The true number is complicated by other contributing conditions . Putting those aside for simplification it still more like:

A=Number of symptomatic infection in vaccinated
B=number of vaccinated.

C=Number of symptomatic infection in non vaccinated

D=number of non vaccinated.

A/B is the rate of symptomatic infection per vaccinated person.

1-A/B is the percent of all vaccinated who never had symptoms. Not efficacy.

For efficacy you have to consider how many would have had symptoms if they were not vaccinated:
Which is (A/B)/(C/D).

NJ is inflating vaccine efficacy by using A/B as efficacy. It is correct to say the vaccinated symptomatic rate is A/B. But deceiving to not then at least state what the unvaccinated infection rate is. But infection rate is not effecacy.

You are correct. To truly get efficacy from general public infections, you have to know how many people are vaccinated and unvaccinated for a time period (a week would probably get reasonably accurate data) and then do the calculation based on cases, hospitalizations and deaths over that time period.

The Orange County data over three days suggests a 100% effective vaccine which we know is not true. If we use their data over the course of a week then it can be calculated with pretty good accuracy.