Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[nyrebel3]

Mississippi might be the last state in the country I would want to live in, but let’s face it: Mississippians have access issues that most of California’s population centers simply don’t have.

Living in MS is not for the faint of heart. Simple, slow, care-free living is not for everyone!

I'm curious on the definition of access issues. In the rural South, people are accustomed to driving 30 miles to Walmart and have the support system accommodate that. The covid vaccine sites are situated similarly. But residents think more in terms of time and that 30 mile trip is 35 minutes. Is 35 minutes different than the most distant points in an urban area? MS is starting to rollout smaller popup sites to increase the take rate.

There is a huge mistrust of government and hospitals/health providers with a large segment of the minority population in MS. Vaccine hesitancy isn't a neat, tidy classification of D vs R. It is a very complex subject.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In polling it definitely lines up as you say. For actual vaccine acceptance to date, in the younger demographics the non-hesitant are still not rushing out to get vaccinated.

well...that’s the arrogance of Y and Z...not shocking either.

I think we should get Apple to give away iPhone 13s at vax sites...

 

[Willmark]

I’ll let you do the research...

...you’ll find that “hesitancy” links up near 1:1 with political leanings. So an electoral map may do the job also.

there are some exceptions. One is minority distrust...that’s grounded in history. Wisconsin seems to be a geographic anomaly...at least so far.

but the rest seems to line up.

So you’re going state level? Interesting.

But said enough for now. Back to everyone’s regularly scheduled broadcast.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So you’re going state level? Interesting.

But said enough for now. Back to everyone’s regularly scheduled broadcast.

not state necessarily...that one is just the anomaly.

like everything...this is a layer cake

 

[correcaminos]

We may pull our oldest from school just so we can go to that location. They're really on the ball even if it's not very convenient for us. (A TON of pharmacies, etc. near us have started offering shots, but we love the drive-through.)

I guarantee you would not be the only one! While I knew two families who were waiting I saw two others with the same vaccine cards and papers there. A bunch of us had that idea. The people running the clinic said they did this is pretty much all they did today!

 

[Tom P.]

Have we learned nothing about ventilation in the last year. It's the exact reverse. Effective air conditioning in the gondolas would require recirculating the air as much as possible. As pointed out hundreds of pages earlier, they would need to restrict how much air loss there is when the doors open. There would never be enough power for them to mix in enough fresh air. Do you want to get into a cabin full of stale, but refreshingly cool, air from the prior group?

Now, the ventilation windows exchange huge amounts of cabin air with outside air. The perfect COVID solution. The bigger question is, how close does this make it to just like being outside that's safe? Could they double load the cabins because of the rapid air exchange? I suppose the flow direction would matter, a safer side of the cabin. Better to sit up wind.

Extra bonus, there's probably some flue like effect with the ventilation pulling in extra oxygen to feed the flames as the cabin contents spontaneously ignite. I'm sure that offers some sanitizing effect and reduces droplet propagation.

It was, uhm, a joke.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m thinking they’ll go along with the mask drop in a surprising move of compliance...

two people are “undefeated”:
1. Father Time
2. Mother Nature

they know that a larger, happier, more Apple pay itchy customer base will show when they don’t have to wear masks for a lot of the day.

As I’m sure you will agree, if Orange County announces the dropping of outdoor masks tomorrow, and all the major theme parks along with Disney decided tomorrow to follow along, Universal and Sea World would drop outdoor masks a week or 2 later and Disney will take at least a month. The Mouse House makes the Federal government look agile and fast moving.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That I don’t disagree with in the least. As I’ve shared before, I was raised by an Appalachian family, and serve the people of Montana. So, a lot of the government mistrust I have seen and heard from a personal family level. That is why I was saying that we got behind the eight ball on the messaging front. Even among my extended family, I have seen conspiracies that make my head spin. The counter messaging has mostly been weak at best. And these are educated, otherwise vaccinated individuals. They even vaccinated their kids against the “old” viruses, so I really don’t understand how they got their head around this one.

I’ll give you a theory on the reasons:

it is old, fat, orange, bankrupt and sold a message of “power” to a large swath of the population that has been increasingly powerless in post industrialization.

“snake oil”...would be a simpler explanation

 

[mmascari]

It was, uhm, a joke.

I knew. I should have added a smile to your message.

The part about the cabin being in flames was a clue. And yet, also completely consistent with that thread.

 

[sullyinMT]

I’ll give you a theory on the reasons:

it is old, fat, orange, bankrupt and sold a message of “power” to a large swath of the population that has been increasingly powerless in post industrialization.

“snake oil”...would be a simpler explanation

The reasons I get. It’s countering them where we seem to be lacking effective and timely answers (myself included). It’s frustrating as hell.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As I’m sure you will agree, if Orange County announces the dropping of outdoor masks tomorrow, and all the major theme parks along with Disney decided tomorrow to follow along, Universal and Sea World would drop outdoor masks a week or 2 later and Disney will take at least a month. The Mouse House makes the Federal government look agile and fast moving.

I think they might delay...but they would be “motivated” to do it before the summer swing.

it lines up with their staffing/reopening moves. Time to get it...
The masses are lining up at full price.

Bob is tingling.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think they might delay...but they would be “motivated” to do it before the summer swing.

it lines up with their staffing/reopening moves. Time to get it...
The masses are lining up at full price.

Bob is tingling.

Agreed. I see mid-June as the start of a big ramp up to July 4th week. Won’t be normal crowds yet, but will be ramping up.

 

[mmascari]

OC Florida should drop masks outside this week. I think the others drop it first and Disney waits to see. Possible change around June timeframe.

As I’m sure you will agree, if Orange County announces the dropping of outdoor masks tomorrow, and all the major theme parks along with Disney decided tomorrow to follow along, Universal and Sea World would drop outdoor masks a week or 2 later and Disney will take at least a month. The Mouse House makes the Federal government look agile and fast moving.

I can't remember, is the OC change related just to the vaccinated target and then for all instances or are there any exceptions like in crowds?

My guess is that as long as Disney can increase capacity and sell out days (or at least close), they'll eliminate distance before masks. Just keep packing people into outdoor spaces closer and closer. Which will at least make more sense for keeping an outdoor mask. Since, if you don't need one outside when not in crowds, the sort of reverse is that you can be outside packed into a crowd as long as you have one. Our desires are probably the reverse, but we would all desire the park mostly to ourselves too.

Restaurant capacity will be the real ultimate limiter. If they could use all outdoor seating, they might pack that in too. The indoor distance while eating is the real restriction. Can't really fill the park completely and only be able to feed 50%.

 

[havoc315]

Agreed. I see mid-June as the start of a big ramp up to July 4th week. Won’t be normal crowds yet, but will be ramping up.

Could be very close to normal summer crowds. Remember, summer has been pretty low season at WDW the last 3-5 years.
Looking at park passes fully sold out for June and July dates already -- 35% attendance would be "normal crowds" for some summer dates at some of those parks.

Summer Is Not Peak Season at Disney World. - Disney Tourist Blog

Summer crowds have been low at Walt Disney World the last few years, which bucks conventional wisdom that it’s peak tourist season in Florida. Summer 2020 is likely to be the least-busy stretch of the year at WDW, even though Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge is now open and both Remy’s Ratatouille...

www.disneytouristblog.com

 

[AmesTARDIS]

Now you're just making up names. Lululemon? Lularoe? What's next? Lulubanana? Lulutangerine?

I had to go and look-up Lululemon. I had no idea that was a thing. lol

 

[GeneralZod]

post industrialization

You misspelled indoctrination.

 

[GaBoy]

This is very true, but those people with access issues at some point are able to get to the grocery store with a pharmacy, or near some other outreach center that is providing vaccines. The rural problem is a real problem, and I’m not real sure how to fix it. We got behind the eight ball with messaging on the vaccines, and allowed a lot of bunk to be spread without countering the information.
It seems that on many levels, what we are running into is more than the typical anti-vax population, and need to find ways to remedy it sooner rather than later. Or, as others have stated, the Plan B of vaccine passports for medium to large gatherings and travel could be the norm this fall.

I live in a very rural area. It is going to be tough to find many who feel (or have felt) the threat. They run close circles, so not much exposure, lives are outdoors generally, self reliant and mandates were never in place or really observed. There are a lot of folks who really never felt the COVID impact on their daily isolated lives. It was only when large families gathered for funerals in rural counties that they became hot spots (Albany, GA). It is one of the few occasions where you see large groups in rural areas gather.
On the flip side, the same factors that didn't create enough threat in rural communities to change behavior are the ones that really don't make much outbreak or spread in rural areas a threat. Families are spaced miles apart. It's a density thing. I wouldn't worry about reaching the rural families and farmers. I would concentrate on reaching (messaging and physically) the inner city, high density areas (Georgia especially). Cash is king and it will move a lot of folks.

 

[mmascari]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a hybrid for a while. Places that effectively crush the virus won’t want outsiders carrying a new outbreak with them. I see the appeal of Broadway or certain Vegas shows and venues, for example, requiring vaccine proof for a while after the national picture improves. Whether they do or not, I tend to agree with you they probably won’t bother with cost and logistics unless locally mandated.

There's an interesting technical difference hiding in that scenario.

• When spread is high everywhere, vaccine proof needs to be robust. Chances of compromise is high.
• When spread is low everywhere, vaccine proof is irrelevant. Chance of exposure is simply low.
• When spread is low in one area and high in another. Both areas may want vaccine proof, to deal with people from the high area. But, the robustness requirement is different. In the high area, they would still want robust. But, in the low area, the robustness requirement depends on how many people arrive from the higher area.

Using those Broadway and Vegas examples, and ruling out international travel. How many customers are relatively local and how many are more distant? If the vast majority, say 80% are from relatively local and at a similar level of low spread. Then vaccine proof is only for the 20% that may come from a higher transmission area. There's way less need for robust proof then, as there's just less fakes possible in general. I would guess Broadway and Vegas have different levels of "locals" in their base, especially if we define "local" as a 3 hour drive. Everywhere 3 hours from Broadway is likely to get to the same spread level faster than the entire country.

Likewise, I would guess Disney has a more national crowd. Although, some weeks it feels like it's just FL and New England for everyone there.

 

[DCBaker]

"The University of Central Florida is dropping its requirement that masks must be worn on campus.

The university says it is following guidance from the Board of Governors and other State University System institutions and will instead encourage those on campus to wear face coverings indoors.

Officials at UCF also continue to encourage those at the campus to follow CDC guidelines.

Starting June 23, for the school’s Summer B term, the university will start operating as it did before the pandemic for the most part, including eliminating physical distancing requirements and allowing full participation in athletic and social events.

“Many UCF employees have been working on our campuses throughout the pandemic, serving our students and supporting faculty members. As we prepare for a fuller return to UCF, this will include more employees returning to their pre-COVID workspaces,” the university said in a statement.

Additional vaccines will be available at the UCF Student Health Center starting next week."

University of Central Florida drops mask requirements

The university also announced they will start operating as it did before the pandemic for the most, including allowing full participation in athletic and social events.

www.wesh.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I can't remember, is the OC change related just to the vaccinated target and then for all instances or are there any exceptions like in crowds?

My guess is that as long as Disney can increase capacity and sell out days (or at least close), they'll eliminate distance before masks. Just keep packing people into outdoor spaces closer and closer. Which will at least make more sense for keeping an outdoor mask. Since, if you don't need one outside when not in crowds, the sort of reverse is that you can be outside packed into a crowd as long as you have one. Our desires are probably the reverse, but we would all desire the park mostly to ourselves too.

Restaurant capacity will be the real ultimate limiter. If they could use all outdoor seating, they might pack that in too. The indoor distance while eating is the real restriction. Can't really fill the park completely and only be able to feed 50%.

I think it’s just outdoor masks dropped at 50% vaccinated.

The restaurant issue is interesting. Disney does have some in park restaurant space that’s seasonal and not always used, but there is limited ability to expand further and eating outdoors in July/August is hot and it rains briefly a lot of days.