Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

For those still interested in WDW....EPCOT Forever music was testing overnight. Seems like we are inching closer to the return of nighttime shows and all signs point to EPCOT being first back. Disney has their earnings call Thursday so will be interesting to see what (if anything) Chappie has to say about the Summer ramp up at the parks. It’s possible OC Florida hits 50% and enters phase 2 by the time of the earnings call. Gives us something else to talk about.

I expect some very generalized statements by Chapek.
He will definitely talk about attendance and capacity increasing over the summer. But look for the tone, to get a sense of the actual pace.
On one extreme: "We are examining how to safely start the process of building up capacity and looking to bring back features in modified formats. We expect mitigation measures to continue to be necessary for the rest of the year.."

The optimistic extreme would be, "with the great growth in vaccination, we expect to be able to increase capacity and attendance faster than we anticipated. We will be increasing capacity by the end of the current quarter, with the hopes of building towards full capacity and operations by the end of the fourth quarter."

So it's in the tone -- Is it slow, cautious, creating the expectation of a crawl. Or is it optimistic and aggressive, creating the expectation of a rapid buildup. This is an investor's call, they are legally obligated to be honest in setting expectations. It would be hazardous for them to misrepresent the expectations.

As to fireworks, I'm optimistic that we will have Epcot Forever by June/July. The park desperately needs a draw.
I'm less optimistic about a return of Fantasmic before late summer. But would certainly expect it to return by September.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Political???? There is not one single political statement either from me or in the article, so where are you getting that from? I thought most of you preferred the NY Times for fair and accurate reporting? Or is that only when it suits your story?

Let’s see, Gov. Whitmer was already introduced to the conversation and now you’re bringing up the most thinly-veiled reference to The NY Times as a periodical “most of” us prefer. Yeah, not political at all. A rose gold castle by any other name would still look as awful.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

It’s not a black and white issue. You’re talking about politics and folks are making assumptions about others because of the ideology their media heroes have fed them. Everything is an assumed conspiracy. It’s hysterical to relive this over and over and over. Isn’t it exhausting?

No one but you is talking politics at all. We are only talking about the science.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I posted the article so that people would understand that Disney could easily get rid of the outdoor mask mandate, since the published data is obviously wrong. So when they do remove the outdoor mandate, people may not be as scared to be outdoors there without a mask. All assuming, of course, that they are vaccinated

Then send it to Disney, tweet it, Tik Tok it. You’re not going to convince or unconvince anyone here who crystallized their place on the covid continuum a year ago.

 

[Willmark]

And the bubonic plague isn't directly transmissible between humans anyway, unless it gets into the lungs or stool. Unlike COVID, which also has a much longer pre-symptomatic stage.

Since people went the pedantic route I’ll amend: the death rate of Covid is not the same as the Black Death,

 

[Nubs70]

Then send it to Disney, tweet it, Tik Tok it. You’re not going to convince or unconvince anyone here who crystallized their place on the covid continuum a year ago.

What happened to "follow the science"?

 

[Parker in NYC]

What happened to "follow the science"?

It’s on page 10 or something. Asked and answered. You’re going to get likes and agreement from the same cast of characters as always.

 

[sullyinMT]

For a jog in Central Park, or walking the Geyser Basin in Yellowstone, this outdoor transmission argument makes sense. Even in the case of outdoor dining, beer garden, photos at WDW. We've already seen an evolved policy with this, so frankly who cares? It's too fast for some and not quick enough for others, but largely we've seen human behavior and public policy outpace the CDC, anyway. Everything else is water under the bridge to the vaccine effort, and akin to your SO bringing up a mistake from 8 months ago in an argument about what to have for dinner tonight. As has been posted over and over again here, people are getting used to the idea of a mask optional outdoors, depending on the situation. If Disney or other large venue see outdoor masks as a way to increase capacity, that makes sense from an economic standpoint, while our community transmission is so high and % vaccinated is still low. If your local park system is requiring your kid to be in a mask on the playground, that argument belongs to the city council.

 

[correcaminos]

The funny part is that botox is derived from a known toxin.

But it's unsafe!!! I don't want the poison! Or so they say.

I have cat food ads here, but I own 3 cats so don't think much of it!

 

[Heppenheimer]

The funny part is that botox is derived from a known toxin.

And mg for mg, the most deadly toxin known.

PS- Pet peeve, but "toxin" does not mean what most people think it does. You were using the term correctly, Pixie.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

And mg for mg, the most deadly toxin known.

PS- Pet peeve, but "toxin" does not mean what most people think it does. You were using the term correctly, Pixie.

I've always thought of "toxin" as something that's poisonous.

 

[drizgirl]

What happened to "follow the science"?

That's so pre-November 2020.

 

[GoofGoof]

I expect some very generalized statements by Chapek.
He will definitely talk about attendance and capacity increasing over the summer. But look for the tone, to get a sense of the actual pace.
On one extreme: "We are examining how to safely start the process of building up capacity and looking to bring back features in modified formats. We expect mitigation measures to continue to be necessary for the rest of the year.."

The optimistic extreme would be, "with the great growth in vaccination, we expect to be able to increase capacity and attendance faster than we anticipated. We will be increasing capacity by the end of the current quarter, with the hopes of building towards full capacity and operations by the end of the fourth quarter."

So it's in the tone -- Is it slow, cautious, creating the expectation of a crawl. Or is it optimistic and aggressive, creating the expectation of a rapid buildup. This is an investor's call, they are legally obligated to be honest in setting expectations. It would be hazardous for them to misrepresent the expectations.

As to fireworks, I'm optimistic that we will have Epcot Forever by June/July. The park desperately needs a draw.
I'm less optimistic about a return of Fantasmic before late summer. But would certainly expect it to return by September.

They are putting the lids back on the trash cans. We’ll be back to normal operations by July 4th

 

[Heppenheimer]

Since people went the pedantic route I’ll amend: the death rate of Covid is not the same as the Black Death,

No, and thank God. But the prevalence, morbidity and mortality of COVID is like nothing we've seen in a century. Pandemics can still be really awful in their own right without quite reaching bubonic plague levels of awfulness.

 

[Parker in NYC]

They are putting the lids back on the trash cans. We’ll be back to normal operations by July 4th

I never thought the return of a trash can would give me such joy. But I’m so, so happy. Not to mention, they’re the greatest trash cans ever!

 

[Heppenheimer]

I've always thought of "toxin" as something that's poisonous.

To be absolutely correct, a toxin is something poisonous from a biological source. So, ricin is a toxin, arsenic is not. Both are toxic, but only one is actually a toxin.

 

[Andrew C]

We've already seen an evolved policy with this, so frankly who cares?

It is concerning that the CDC went with the less than 10% number rather than the far more accurate less than 1% number. It is one thing to be conservative but something else entirely to be that misleading. Its not a good look. Poor communication on their end at the very least.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

To be absolutely correct, a toxin is something poisonous from a biological source. So, ricin is a toxin, arsenic is not. Both are toxic, but only one is actually a toxin.

So I was pretty close...I was thinking along the lines of snake/spider venom. (I've watched a lot of Discovery Channel over the years.)

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

For a jog in Central Park, or walking the Geyser Basin in Yellowstone, this outdoor transmission argument makes sense. Even in the case of outdoor dining, beer garden, photos at WDW. We've already seen an evolved policy with this, so frankly who cares? It's too fast for some and not quick enough for others, but largely we've seen human behavior and public policy outpace the CDC, anyway. Everything else is water under the bridge to the vaccine effort, and akin to your SO bringing up a mistake from 8 months ago in an argument about what to have for dinner tonight. As has been posted over and over again here, people are getting used to the idea of a mask optional outdoors, depending on the situation. If Disney or other large venue see outdoor masks as a way to increase capacity, that makes sense from an economic standpoint, while our community transmission is so high and % vaccinated is still low. If your local park system is requiring your kid to be in a mask on the playground, that argument belongs to the city council.

They can't really increase outdoor capacity if they still requires masks indoors though, can they? Lines would stretch farther and wait times would increase.

Not that Disney necessarily cares about those things if it means more money in the register.

 

[Nubs70]

For a jog in Central Park, or walking the Geyser Basin in Yellowstone, this outdoor transmission argument makes sense. Even in the case of outdoor dining, beer garden, photos at WDW. We've already seen an evolved policy with this, so frankly who cares? It's too fast for some and not quick enough for others, but largely we've seen human behavior and public policy outpace the CDC, anyway. Everything else is water under the bridge to the vaccine effort, and akin to your SO bringing up a mistake from 8 months ago in an argument about what to have for dinner tonight. As has been posted over and over again here, people are getting used to the idea of a mask optional outdoors, depending on the situation. If Disney or other large venue see outdoor masks as a way to increase capacity, that makes sense from an economic standpoint, while our community transmission is so high and % vaccinated is still low. If your local park system is requiring your kid to be in a mask on the playground, that argument belongs to the city council.

Why should we care:

1. Outdoor masking was treated the same as indoor masking which pounded into the minds of society that nowhere was safe. Coping during this event would have been much easier for some if mandates were indoor mask - Yes, Outdoor mask - No. So go outside and get some activity.
2. Many small businesses went out of business as a result.
3. Millions of dollars in fines were assessed based on failed science.
4. The CDC did not vet the data. They failed in scientific due diligence.
5. Peoples mobility was impaired because of failed science.