Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

The 65+ members of my wife’s family from Long Island are all getting their first shots on Tuesday. They got appointments at a church. Pretty random stuff, but it’s moving forward. I think you’ll get in before Sept, but it’s gonna be a while.

Hope they get it. My aunt was supposed to get her shot tomorrow (Tuesday) at a church in Hempstead. Got a call last night that it was cancelled because they ran out of vaccine and she has to re-schedule, which was a pain in the butt last time. Terrible.

So 4 of the 6 people got their vaccine here today. They had an online registration tool that everyone filled out at the same time and booked their times but then only 4 of 6 got confirmation e-mails. The other 2 never got the confirm and were shut out from booking again so when they went today they were told they didn’t have appointments. Not sure if they were just bumped for someone with a connection or it was a system failure. 4 out of 6 is better than none.

 

[Rich Brownn]

Got shot 2 today. Disapointed I didn't mutate into any super powers

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Got shot 2 today. Disapointed I didn't mutate into any super powers

Just wait until you have to cut tail holes in all your pants in a few weeks.

 

[mmascari]

If Moderna had a contract to sell COVID vaccine to Amazon, the DPA gives the government the ability to force the sale of the product to the government instead but, if the contract was for 10 million doses (just making up numbers) and that's all Moderna had the capacity to produce, the government can't force them to expand the production facility because Uncle Sam wants 20 million doses in the same time frame.

I think that's the important part. The vaccine production is a complex manufacturing process with high QA processes. It's not like adding a second line in a sandwich shop. Sandwich shop picked specifically because it's line is less complex than many fast food lines.

That doesn't mean there's nothing that can be done. There's clearly lots of up side and sales potential as fast they can produce. Which means there's lots of value in determining what the limiting factor is for capacity. If it's size of the line and the buildings its in, there may be nothing that can be done. But, if it's availability of an input resource, or quantity of tooling for a key step, the DPA could be used with those suppliers to purchase all their supplies. Assuming those input manufacturing process don't have the same problem and need to repeat the search one level down.

There's definitely a place for a top to bottom, all the way down to the lowest level of raw inputs cross company supply chain analysis. Then, the DPA could be used to buy everything at whatever level and direct it to the next step. All the way through delivery and into arms, and all the support stuff needed to do that.

A good story teller could probably write a fun book on all the steps and stuff required along the way, showing all the stuff nobody ever thinks about.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think that's the important part. The vaccine production is a complex manufacturing process with high QA processes. It's not like adding a second line in a sandwich shop. Sandwich shop picked specifically because it's line is less complex than many fast food lines.

That doesn't mean there's nothing that can be done. There's clearly lots of up side and sales potential as fast they can produce. Which means there's lots of value in determining what the limiting factor is for capacity. If it's size of the line and the buildings its in, there may be nothing that can be done. But, if it's availability of an input resource, or quantity of tooling for a key step, the DPA could be used with those suppliers to purchase all their supplies. Assuming those input manufacturing process don't have the same problem and need to repeat the search one level down.

There's definitely a place for a top to bottom, all the way down to the lowest level of raw inputs cross company supply chain analysis. Then, the DPA could be used to buy everything at whatever level and direct it to the next step. All the way through delivery and into arms, and all the support stuff needed to do that.

A good story teller could probably write a fun book on all the steps and stuff required along the way, showing all the stuff nobody ever thinks about.

Key concept from chemistry- what is/are the rate limiting step(s)?

 

[Patcheslee]

Just wait until you have to cut tail holes in all your pants in a few weeks.

I'm hoping for super fast speed walking, will come in handy for rope drops later... or do I need wings to avoid air fares

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

There was very minimal use of DPA last year...they threatened it...they “negotiated” it...but it really wasn’t employed. I get the reasons...and I don’t want to debate them. But it is what it is.

I don’t think this administration will honestly use it much either...but what they can get is more public confidence. That’s been sorely lacking. Hard to debate that one.

You can’t say “we know this is hard...stick with precautions...we’re trying to get to the end quickly...” and then NOT at least invoke the DPA in name only.

The messaging last year was economic rhetoric that was also a political bet....

...And they lost it. And here we is.

I have seen the DPA discussed here, but didn't see anyone mention that the new administration specifically made an announcement yesterday that they plan to invoke the DPA.

Not only that, but there are strong plans to suppose/increase American manufacturing more broadly. As I understand the situation, that has solid bipartisan support. If nothing else, the pandemic really put a spotlight on what can go wrong when we don't manufacture something like PPE or glass vaccine vials.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Got shot 2 today. Disapointed I didn't mutate into any super powers

...eat some beans and then use the vapors as a flamethrower later

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have seen the DPA discussed here, but didn't see anyone mention that the new administration specifically made an announcement yesterday that they plan to invoke the DPA.

Not only that, but there are strong plans to suppose/increase American manufacturing more broadly. As I understand the situation, that has solid bipartisan support. If nothing else, the pandemic really put a spotlight on what can go wrong when we don't manufacture something like PPE or glass vaccine vials.

At this point is more “optics” than a concrete reality...but it is the right messaging for the climate..

Biden will use the Defense Production Act in his anti-coronavirus effort

The goal is to help Biden make enough vaccines for at least 100 million people in his first 100 days.

www.google.com

 

[correcaminos]

Got shot 2 today. Disapointed I didn't mutate into any super powers

Give it a few hours

 

[DCBaker]

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/wh...l-200-million-doses-covid-19-vaccine-n1255744

 

[Disney Experience]

Any idea if the testing process for such a booster would be faster? I’m guessing it would just be the mRNA that changes so the rest of the ingredients would be known as safe. Can an error with the mRNA cause a problem?

Since current dosage is highly effective they will likely not have to determine the optimal dosage in a Phase 1/2. Safety could be a concern, but may be able to be addressed more in a Phase 3 trial. Not sure if they will need a true placebo group to get useful data. The phase 3 trial already done by Pfizer cost them 40-80 million dollars in just direct to subject payments.(Excluding the research doctors, nurses, assistance, facilities, etc.). That is one reason they did not want to do a crossover study vs just unblinding. I know Moderna is already getting subjects for trials of their proposed booster. The FDA has different requirements for testing flu vaccines than other vaccines. Not sure how modified covid vaccines will fit closer to those requirements vs other vaccines. Given the number of vaccination shots that would be sold, the trial costs are not a substantial burden.

The people they are enrolling into their booster study are people from their phase 1/2 and soon phase 3 trial. Since they got the initial shot much sooner than the people getting it under EUA. By the time people under EUA get to the same point they may have initial results from their study. As the number of covid cases in the public go down, it will be harder to get Phase 3 study results. Though they may be able to leverage the public via the Phase 4 data they can get from them (i.e. EUA and beyond)


Paper from 2012:

Size of clinical trials and Introductory prices of prophylactic vaccine series - PMC

Costs of completing the recommended immunization schedule have increased over the last decade. Access to prophylactic vaccines may become limited due to financing obstacles within current delivery systems. Vaccine prices reflect research and ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

An interesting very technical paper on MRNA from EIGHT years ago can be found at:

Developing mRNA-vaccine technologies - PMC

mRNA vaccines combine desirable immunological properties with an outstanding safety profile and the unmet flexibility of genetic vaccines. Based on in situ protein expression, mRNA vaccines are capable of inducing a balanced immune response ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Of course cancer treatment was the projected initial use.

Concerning mrna safety as a vaccine even in 2012 they saw some of it's strengths:

Particularly compared with DNA as a therapeutic or more specifically as a vaccine, mRNA offers strong safety advantages.5 As the minimal genetic construct, it harbors only the elements directly required for expression of the encoded protein. Moreover, while recombination between single-stranded RNA molecules may occur in rare cases,6,7 mRNA does not interact with the genome. Thus, potentially detrimental genomic integration is excluded. Finally, this lack of genomic integration in combination with mRNA being non-replicative as well as metabolically decaying within a few days8 makes mRNA a merely transient carrier of information.

 

[pixie225]

So 4 of the 6 people got their vaccine here today. They had an online registration tool that everyone filled out at the same time and booked their times but then only 4 of 6 got confirmation e-mails. The other 2 never got the confirm and were shut out from booking again so when they went today they were told they didn’t have appointments. Not sure if they were just bumped for someone with a connection or it was a system failure. 4 out of 6 is better than none.

TY for update. 4/6 definitely better than none. Maybe with Biden increasing the amount of dosages we won't have to wait until Sept. Maybe just June. Will still have to cancel our May Disneyworld vacay if no shots.

 

[Disney Experience]

Sanofi, in unusual move, to help Pfizer, BioNTech make coronavirus vaccine doses

The French drugmaker, having hit delays with its own coronavirus shot, agreed to manufacture over 125 million doses of Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine for supply in Europe.

www.biopharmadive.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Attaining herd immunity is definitely more difficult if world population is vaccinated with Astrazenca vs (Pfizer or Moderna..both hard to deliver to third world). [Even worse if the 50.4% efficacy of the chinese vaccine is used]. If herd immunity is delayed a long time then breakout can occur. I hope JnJ has good efficacy and if so the world pop can get it vs something with lower efficacy.

It just means we may never be able to reduce covid to the level of polio in the modern world or eliminate it like smallpox. But we will likely be able to treat it, trace it, and perhaps contain it.

Immunisation, asymptomatic infection, herd immunity and the new variants of COVID 19

Objectives Is “herd immunity” to COVID-19 a realistic outcome of any immunisation programme with the two main vaccines currently licenced in the UK (Pfizer vaccine BNT162b2 and Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine ChAdOx1-S)? More formally, can these vaccines achieve a sufficient level of population...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[flutas]

TY for update. 4/6 definitely better than none. Maybe with Biden increasing the amount of dosages we won't have to wait until Sept. Maybe just June. Will still have to cancel our May Disneyworld vacay if no shots.

4/6 is better than none, until you realize a single vial contains 6. Which means either 2 doses were wasted due to an issue with appointments not booking properly, or 2 random people lucked out and got it. Hopefully the latter over the former.

 

[GoofGoof]

TY for update. 4/6 definitely better than none. Maybe with Biden increasing the amount of dosages we won't have to wait until Sept. Maybe just June. Will still have to cancel our May Disneyworld vacay if no shots.

Yes, my mother in law missed out, but her mother who is 96 and sister who has cancer both got in so all in all pretty happy for them, especially since my MIL is retired and doesn’t need to go out and expose herself too often. I’m holding out hope that we can get all adults vaccinate by the end of June. May is more aggressive but could happen. Next week will be a big story. If JnJ is approved that’s an extra 100M people by end of April or May. If not then we won’t get all adults vaccinated until some time in Q3 when the next batches of Pfizer and Moderna get delivered to get us from 200M at June 30 to 300M needed.

 

[GoofGoof]

4/6 is better than none, until you realize a single vial contains 6. Which means either 2 doses were wasted due to an issue with appointments not booking properly, or 2 random people lucked out and got it. Hopefully the latter over the former.

No they didn’t have appointments so the doses weren’t wasted. Not sure if it was just a system issue or they got bumped but when the others arrived at the site the 2 people who never got the e-mail confirms back were not on the list.

 

[DisneyCane]

A quick update from my Mom. She had her first shot of Pfizer two weeks ago after getting an appointment at the Hard Rock Stadium site. At the time they told her just to come back on 2/2 whenever she wanted for the second shot. Today, she got a call from the State of Florida customer service (that's what she said the person called themselves) to schedule her second shot appointment time on 2/2. It appears that there is some kind of logistics actually happening and they aren't just winging it as is the perception of some.