Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

I thought the "vaccine" elements of the DPA are for vials, syringes and dry ice. Ancillary stuff that normal people don't think of but are necessary. There are concerns about the syringes becoming a pinch point.

Also, masks (could be important if we need to go the route of Europe with less homemade/more medical grade) and testing supplies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm going to read the DPA tonight or tomorrow morning when I have time so I can ensure accuracy but I'm pretty sure, based on a quick skim, that it does not have the power do do nearly as much as you believe.

Enjoy it...

It’s language and use history/application are far ranging and more or less open ended.

It would also be corporate suicide to resist it anyway if you’re a business.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Now that Merck has withdrawn their investigative vaccines, perhaps they could manufacture Moderna's or Pfizer's under contract?

I'm eagerly awaiting the NEJM paper on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Oh...Merck doesn’t like to borrow toys from the other kids. I say this because I have some relatives/contacts that are/were Merck lab managers and executives.

It would be nice though.
The thing about the vaccine is this: Wall Street is still open...as are the DNC and RNC...so there are still games to be played.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, Merck is one of the biggest players in vaccines. Would have been nice to have their manufacturing experience on board but you can’t win em all. Good news from Pfizer and Moderna so far too in that they aren’t seeing any major delays in manufacturing or deliveries.

Moderna is talking “shot 3” now...so that’s a wrinkle

 

[GoofGoof]

Moderna is talking “shot 3” now...so that’s a wrinkle

Not a big deal. Their study showed the antibodies produced by the current vaccine were still well above the level needed to neutralize the variant. The booster they are developing wouldn’t likely come any time soon. They were already looking at the potential for a booster for both Pfizer and Moderna a year out from vaccination. Any 3rd shot would likely be in the fall at earliest and maybe next year. Either case they won’t have anything to do with the 200M doses purchased already.

 

[GoofGoof]

Now that Merck has withdrawn their investigative vaccines, perhaps they could manufacture Moderna's or Pfizer's under contract?

I'm eagerly awaiting the NEJM paper on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Moderna’s market cap is pretty bloated right now, but it’s ripe for acquisition. I would assume Merck could be in on that potential deal and is one of the few companies large enough to absorb Moderna. If mRNA is the future of vaccines it makes sense for the big players to scoop these guys up. Pfizer is already in bed with BioNTech, another possible match. I don’t know if any M&A activity would close fast enough to impact current vaccine manufacturing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not a big deal. Their study showed the antibodies produced by the current vaccine were still well above the level needed to neutralize the variant. The booster they are developing wouldn’t likely come any time soon. They were already looking at the potential for a booster for both Pfizer and Moderna a year out from vaccination. Any 3rd shot would likely be in the fall at earliest and maybe next year. Either case they won’t have anything to do with the 200M doses purchased already.

Not immediate...down the road though.

Moderna’s market cap is pretty bloated right now, but it’s ripe for acquisition. I would assume Merck could be in on that potential deal and is one of the few companies large enough to absorb Moderna. If mRNA is the future of vaccines it makes sense for the big players to scoop these guys up. Pfizer is already in bed with BioNTech, another possible match. I don’t know if any M&A activity would close fast enough to impact current vaccine manufacturing.

Oh dear...we’re back to talking funny money deals again?

The plague is over!!!!

But seriously...Merck did the “traditional”
Approach and it went nowhere. Which is funny because a cornerstone of their public/financial persona has always been “our research costs so much/is better”

...so it appears that the wheel continues to turn.

 

[danlb_2000]

A few quick vaccine updates. JnJ had their earnings call today and they said they will have data from their phase 3 trial early next week. That includes the required 2 months of safety data on at least 50% of vaccine recipients. If the data looks positive it would take roughly 2 to 3 weeks to get EUA. The CFO also confirmed that they are on track to meet the target of delivering the 100M doses the US government purchased by the end of June and likely sooner. One other interesting point is their trial covers multiple countries so they have sites in Brazil and S Africa so they will have real time data on how the vaccine combats some of the new variants. I don’t know if that means the efficacy will be lower because of that. I guess we’ll find out next week.

Johnson & Johnson's CEO says crucial coronavirus vaccine data will come by early next week

If successful, the single-dose vaccine would build to existing US supply and accelerate the nation's vaccination campaign.

news.yahoo.com

If the trial contains the location of people then it should be pretty easy to see if the a different strain is skewing the numbers. It would be interesting to know if they sequence the DNA of the virus from anyone who got the vaccine but still caught the virus.

 

[DisneyCane]

Enjoy it...

It’s language and use history/application are far ranging and more or less open ended.

It would also be corporate suicide to resist it anyway if you’re a business.

I agree based on skimming but some people seem to think that companies can be forced to build manufacturing facilities and I'm pretty sure that isn't the case.

If Moderna had a contract to sell COVID vaccine to Amazon, the DPA gives the government the ability to force the sale of the product to the government instead but, if the contract was for 10 million doses (just making up numbers) and that's all Moderna had the capacity to produce, the government can't force them to expand the production facility because Uncle Sam wants 20 million doses in the same time frame.

Boeing could be forced to produce P-8 Poseidon's in lieu of passenger 737s but I don't think they can be forced to change the 737 production line tooling so that they can make more F15s than the F15 production line allows.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree based on skimming but some people seem to think that companies can be forced to build manufacturing facilities and I'm pretty sure that isn't the case.

If Moderna had a contract to sell COVID vaccine to Amazon, the DPA gives the government the ability to force the sale of the product to the government instead but, if the contract was for 10 million doses (just making up numbers) and that's all Moderna had the capacity to produce, the government can't force them to expand the production facility because Uncle Sam wants 20 million doses in the same time frame.

Boeing could be forced to produce P-8 Poseidon's in lieu of passenger 737s but I don't think they can be forced to change the 737 production line tooling so that they can make more F15s than the F15 production line allows.

My understanding is that it was more of a stick to waive at raw material suppliers further down the supply chain. If a chemical or piece of equipment is need by Pfizer or Moderna the government could go to the manufacturer and say you are skipping these other contracts and selling to Pfizer and Moderna first. I think dry ice was one item mentioned early on. So far hasn’t been an issue, but with the explosion of food delivery services that use dry ice there was fear Pfizer would have a potential bottleneck in their distribution if a supplier fell behind.

 

[danlb_2000]

I agree based on skimming but some people seem to think that companies can be forced to build manufacturing facilities and I'm pretty sure that isn't the case.

If Moderna had a contract to sell COVID vaccine to Amazon, the DPA gives the government the ability to force the sale of the product to the government instead but, if the contract was for 10 million doses (just making up numbers) and that's all Moderna had the capacity to produce, the government can't force them to expand the production facility because Uncle Sam wants 20 million doses in the same time frame.

Boeing could be forced to produce P-8 Poseidon's in lieu of passenger 737s but I don't think they can be forced to change the 737 production line tooling so that they can make more F15s than the F15 production line allows.

It looks like it mainly gives the president the power to force companies to prioritize orders for items needed in an emergency. So, for example, if a company produces glass vaccine vials along with other glass containers, the president could force them to focus their manufacturing on the vials instead of other products, even if it is not economical for them to do so.

 

[Disney Experience]

On the Pfizer front the company is now saying they will deliver 120M doses in Q1 and the full 200M doses 2 months earlier than initially projected so end of May instead of end of July.

Pfizer will supply the US with 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses 2 months sooner than expected because of 'extra' doses extracted from vials

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the US will get 120 million doses in the first quarter, 20 million more than initially promised.

www.yahoo.com

Assuming there are not manufacturing setbacks and also assuming JnJ gets approved it’s looking good to have enough doses for 300M Americans (90% of the population) by the end of June.

It is interesting that Pfizer’s 20% increase in total dose delivery is the same as the FDA agreed upon label change on doses per vial based on the ability to extract one extra dose per vial using certain syringes.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 227 new reported deaths, along with 4 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

It is interesting that Pfizer’s 20% increase in total dose delivery is the same as the FDA agreed upon label change on doses per vial based on the ability to extract one extra dose per vial using certain syringes.

There was a NYT story about the extra doses a few days ago -

"In December, pharmacists made the happy discovery that they could squeeze an extra vaccine dose out of Pfizer vials that were supposed to contain only five.

Now, it appears, the bill is due. Pfizer plans to count the surprise sixth dose toward its previous commitment of 200 million doses of Covid vaccine by the end of July and therefore will be providing fewer vials than once expected for the United States."

"For weeks, Pfizer executives pushed officials at the Food and Drug Administration to change the wording of the vaccine’s so-called emergency use authorization so that it formally acknowledged that the vials contained six doses, not five.

The distinction was critical: Pfizer’s contract with the federal government requires that it be paid by the dose. And there were serious public health implications. If the label’s formal language told people administering the vaccine that the vial contained a sixth dose, that could accelerate the pace of vaccinations at a crucial time.

At one point, Pfizer executives lashed out at the top federal vaccine regulator over the government’s hesitation to approve the request, according to people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to discuss them.

On Jan. 6, Pfizer got what it wanted. The F.D.A. changed the language in its fact sheet for doctors to confirm that the vials contain a sixth dose. The change mirrored similar labeling updates by the World Health Organization and the F.D.A.’s counterpart in the European Union.

Company officials, including the chief executive, Dr. Albert Bourla, have said that the sixth dose allows Pfizer to stretch its supply of scarce vaccine even further — it was one factor, for example, in the company’s new estimates that it will be able to manufacture two billion doses for the world this year, instead of the 1.3 billion it had originally planned."

Pfizer Will Ship Fewer Vaccine Vials to Account for ‘Extra’ Doses

After the surprise discovery of an extra dose in every vial, Pfizer executives successfully lobbied the F.D.A. to change the vaccine’s formal authorization language. The company charges by the dose.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GoofGoof]

It is interesting that Pfizer’s 20% increase in total dose delivery is the same as the FDA agreed upon label change on doses per vial based on the ability to extract one extra dose per vial using certain syringes.

I believe they said that is the reason. They are counting the 6th dose per vial in their number now.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[Heppenheimer]

Moderna is talking “shot 3” now...so that’s a wrinkle

I only skimmed the article, but my take on Moderna's 3rd dose was in case the current and future mutations render their initial COVID-19 vaccine less effective. Glad to see that someone is thinking a few steps ahead, for once.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 526816View attachment 526817

Admit it: you’re enjoying these ALOT more than the “We got it figured out” daily Florida 15,000 case reports?

 

[lazyboy97o]

I only skimmed the article, but my take on Moderna's 3rd dose was in case the current and future mutations render their initial COVID-19 vaccine less effective. Glad to see that someone is thinking a few steps ahead, for once.

Any idea if the testing process for such a booster would be faster? I’m guessing it would just be the mRNA that changes so the rest of the ingredients would be known as safe. Can an error with the mRNA cause a problem?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, I did. Your comment, regarding Biden's use of the Defense Production Act, was "about... damn time". as if the previous administration had not used it. I grabbed a recent example of the DPA being used by the Trump administration in response to your comment.

Perhaps a better link would be this one, from the GAO:

Click the Highlights tab

While I am not a fan of Biden, I don't think that Trump walks on water either, and there is plenty of fault that can be dumped on him. But somebody in his administration did use the DPA to increase production of supplies.

Unfortunately, what we have now is a straight-up supply imbalance, and that is only going to be fixed with time. Reasonable people can disagree with the current vaccine distribution plan of pushing it to the states, since some states will perform better than others. But a federal distribution plan using the military would not be able to do any better than a well run state/county, since they would have no control over the supply.

Maybe Biden should use the DPA to appropriate all of the vaccines that are earmarked for Europe and Canada and practice an America first policy! ( that is sarcasm, by the way.)

There was very minimal use of DPA last year...they threatened it...they “negotiated” it...but it really wasn’t employed. I get the reasons...and I don’t want to debate them. But it is what it is.

I don’t think this administration will honestly use it much either...but what they can get is more public confidence. That’s been sorely lacking. Hard to debate that one.

You can’t say “we know this is hard...stick with precautions...we’re trying to get to the end quickly...” and then NOT at least invoke the DPA in name only.

The messaging last year was economic rhetoric that was also a political bet....

...And they lost it. And here we is.